Attack at US Embassy in Montenegro, political killings in Kosovo create fragile stability in Balkans

A 43-year-old Serbian war veteran dropped an explosive device at the US Embassy complex in Podgorica on 22 February before he blew himself up, Montenegrin police said.

The U.S. State Department said that I don't know if the attack was supposed to be suicide or the motive behind it.

But regional experts say the attack highlights how unstable the situation remains in Montenegro, the newest NATO member, but also in the region.

“Since 1 January, we have seen political murders in Kosovo, the Montenegro bomb attack and trained paramilitaries in Russia helping re-arm Milorad Dodik's regime in Bosnia. The temperature is rising in the Balkans, but few in Brussels or Washington are concerned”, says Jasmin Mujanovac, political analyst with headquarters in Durham, North Carolina.

Let's see how this situation will develop, especially as a political story in the context of the broader confrontation between Russia, the European Union and NATO in the region. The target is very symbolic, taking into account the background, apparently, the military of the assailant”, Mujanovic says.

Although it is the centre of a historically unstable area of Europe, Montenegro has been separated from Serbia in 2006 without the violence that has accompanied the similar movements of other former Yugoslav republics.

Montenegro has recognised Kosovo as an independent state, which Serbia has refused to do and also has a significant Russian population.

However, it is in the process of strengthening co-operation with Washington, while becoming the youngest member. NATO in June last year. Its access to the Adriatic Sea makes it a strategic asset for the security alliance, but NATO membership has exacerbated the Kremlin, which is struggling to preserve its influence in the region.

Montenegrin officials have accused several Serbian and Russian citizens of coup efforts in 2016, saying they are planning to kill the prime minister and install a pro-Russian leadership that would reverse NATO's bid.

The embassy incident also occurred until Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was on a two-day visit to Serbia, the country struggling to maintain close ties with Moscow but trying to join the European Union.

The situation in the Western Balkans has not deteriorated in recent years as regards violence, the use of firearms or stability in general. However, the region continues to remain the unstable geopolitical arena, with various players involved”, says Marika Djolay, conflict, peace and development consultant and member of the Balkan Policy Group in Europe, headquartered in London.

“Issues such as corruption, money laundering, drug trafficking, people and weapons continue to increase fragility and threaten stability. There is a constant decline in democracy”, Djolay says.

Analysts warn that the Balkan region remains a crisis area, with very little security.

“to prevent political radicalism and ethnic polarisation that can spark new conflicts, a more powerful strategy is urgently needed for the Western Balkans, which would be led by Washington”, says Janusz Bugajski, associate at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington.