Vetevendosje expected to dominate political scene in the future

While Kosovo still awaits the creation of a new government after the June 11th general elections, experts are considering these results to better understand what appears to be a major change on Kosovo's political scene, as well as possible consequences.

Surprisingly, the overall elections of 2017 had set up Vetevendosje as the single strongest party in Kosovo, ending almost two decades of dominance that the Democratic Party of Kosovo, The PDK and the Democratic League of Kosovo, The LDK, held on the local political scene.

Both of them. The PDK and LDK have competed in the June 11th parliamentary elections in pre-election coalitions with other small partners in the coalition.

But now, as the October 22nd municipal elections are approaching, all political parties have named their candidates for Kosovo mayors, showing that they will all compete in these elections individually.

As political parties prepare for local elections, analysts in Pristina are thinking about the possible long-term consequences of these new political changes.

Most believe the results of parliamentary elections will likely be repeated in municipal elections, thus confirming Vetevendosje's dominance.

Most also think that the decline of the two main parties -- the PDK and LDK -- will continue in local elections, even though the pace of decline will depend on who will succeed in creating the central government.

The results of parliamentary elections are certainly the best indicator of what we can expect in local elections”, said Behlul Beqaj, a political analyst from Pristina for BIRN.

However, others say Kosovo voters are becoming more tactical and that their vote in municipal elections will depend on who will form the central ruling coalition.

The results of the local elections will be greatly influenced by who and with whom will form the government at the central level”, political analyst from Pristina Imer Mushkolaj told BIRN.

Despite the good results in parliamentary elections, this is not a guarantee that Vetevendosje will have similar results on October 22nd (communal elections), because local elections are specific and much depends on who candidates for mayors of”, Mushkolaj added.

If the same or similar results are repeated in the local elections in October, then Vetevendosje will take over the many key municipalities that combined with the results of the parliamentary elections will certainly have a major impact on future developments on the Kosovo political scene, as well as on individual parties, experts stress.

June election results offer interesting conclusions

Changes in the election results that have occurred since the previous elections in 2014 and the last ones in 2017 offer some interesting conclusions.

In the 2014 elections, the Democratic Party of Kosovo, PDK, Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, AAK and Initiative for Kosovo, NISMA, they competed individually for seats in the 120-seat parliament and ended with 37, 11 and 6 seats, respectively.

In the 2017 elections, these three parties joined a single election list, PAN ( The PDK, AAK and NISMA (PDK) won only 39 seats.

While AAK and NISMA held the same number of deputies as in 2014, The PDK lost 15 of its seats, making it the biggest loser in this election.

Similarly, the LDK has fallen from 30 countries, which are controlled in 2014 to 23.

The LDK is also on the joint list with New Kosovo Alliance, AKR and Alternative, which won 4 and 2 seats respectively, bringing the total number of LAA Coalition ( LDK-AAK-Alternatives) with 29 seats.

On the other hand, Vetevendosje, which ran alone, won 32 seats, which marked a huge increase in party popularity and power compared to 2014, when it managed to win only 16 seats.

A deeper look at the election outcome shows that Vetevendosje won or was very close to victory in all major urban centres in Kosovo.

The results also showed that the party proved stronger, especially in all municipalities in eastern Kosovo.

The LDK, which has won most of the municipalities in 2013, now risks losing some of the biggest rewards of 2013, including the municipalities of Ferizaj and Gjilan.

Vetevendosje prevailed in Pristina's capital since the last local elections, and is expected to keep its voters' loyalty in the upcoming local vote.

Parties PAN, including PDK and AAK are likely to keep their support in smaller cities in and in regional centres in western Kosovo, but The PDK could lose Kosovo's second largest city in Prizren, where Vetevendosje has pushed its way through the LDK ranks and has emerged second, drawing close to the end of the PDK's long-standing dominance in the city.

The parties in LAA, including the LDK and the AKR, could be the biggest losers in the upcoming municipal elections.

Judging by the results of the June elections, The AKR seems to lose Gjakova, while in Mitrovica Vetevendosje and the PDK are closed in a tight race in which the LDK could end up as the winner.

The fall of the LDK and PDK is largely interpreted as a result of poor governance since independence, the discontent of Kosovo voters with general developments resulting in punitive voting on these parties.

The “Vetevendosje resolution should be seen as a show of dissatisfaction with the PDK government, characterised by many scandals since 2008. Actually, The PDK and LDK have paid the bill for their bad governance”, Mushkolaj told BIRN.

If this moment is held until local elections, Vetevendosje will benefit and be able to consolidate its local power by paving the way for its dominance in Kosovo politics.

“The trend of change and that of punitive voting will continue, especially in some municipalities, which are still considered bastions of certain political parties”, Mushkolaj said.

“People see Vetevendosje as the last opportunity to prove different governance, as well as a hope to punish those who have abused power”, he added.

As local elections approach, such electoral conduct could extend to municipal elections on October 22nd.

“Time between parliamentary elections and local elections is too short to get different results,” said Beqaj for BIRN.