How is Russia luring Turkey with advanced missiles?

Following his recent visit to Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin on November 13th in Soci, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that relations between the two countries had continued to deepen”.

This was clear from the fact that Putin and Erdogan's meeting lasted more than four hours first with official delegations of the two countries and later at a face-to-face meeting.

According to statements by the two leaders before and after their meeting, the long list of light subjects included Syria, energy issues, the nuclear station in Akkuyu, tourism, military co-operation and the economy.

The two sides agree that our countries and people should be closer and have closer co-operation in any area,” said Erdogan at a joint press conference with Putin after the meeting.

Erdogan noted that this was his third visit to Russia and his sixth meeting with Russia's president only this year, repeating his desire to boost bilateral trade to $100 billion.

Russian missile for a location NATO

According to Erdogan's statements prior to the meeting, the two leaders also had to discuss the final details of an agreement under which Turkey, even though a NATO member state, would purchase the S-400-air rocket system from Russia.

The arms agreement has sparked controversy and concern among NATO allies in recent months.

Russia's Military-Technic Co-operation Service, FSMTC, announced the agreement on sending S-400 systems to Turkey in September.

Since then, Turkish and Russian officials have confirmed that Turkey has made a preliminary payment for the weapons system, which is scheduled for 2019.

We bought the S-400 missile systems. It's done. Now we only have details,” said Turkish Defence Minister Nurettin Canikli on November 11th.

After the Putin-Erdogan meeting on Tuesday, the US voiced concerns about the acquisition, even though it focused more on technical terms, rather than on political aspects of the security of the purchase.

This is a sovereign decision for Turkey. Clearly, he will not be interoperator with NATO,” said US Defence Secretary James Mattis in Washington on Tuesday. “so they will have to consider whether to continue,” he added.

Orban Gafarov, an expert with the Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, told BIRN that Turkey was not the first country NATO buying Russian weapons systems.

“Turkey as a NATO member state could buy these Russian missile systems, since Greece, another NATO country, purchased a lower missile system called S-300 earlier,” explained Gafarov.

However, another expert on Russia-Turkey relations, Kerim Has, at Moscow State University, told BIRN that while details of this agreement are not yet known, implementation of it would remain a long and difficult “ ”, as the agreement could greatly affect relations between NATO and Turkey.

He added that despite the apparent agreement on the purchase of S-400 systems, Turkey is still continuing to negotiate possible weapons purchase systems from French and Italian producers.

It is clear that both Ankara and Moscow have different objectives and interests in signing the S-400 agreement,”.

“Ankara aims to show the West an alternative military subservation “” and blackmail NATO with its geopolitical orientation, while Moscow aims to distance Turkey from NATO, or at least open a serious rift in the Alliance,” he explained.

“Anyway, it would not be accurate to say that the Turkish political leadership has closed all doors to its Western partners,” he added.

Russia, Turkey still face conflicts of interest

Besides focusing on improving political and economic relations, there are other issues in which Turkey and Russia have so far maintained differing views, if not contradictory.

One important issue, which was discussed at Tuesday's meeting in Soci, is Syria, where Russia has given significant military and diplomatic support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey, on the other hand, has supported rebels who want to overthrow Assad and are involved in several military campaigns on Syrian territory.

Relations between Russia and Turkey deteriorated after Turkish aircraft crashed a Russian warplane near the Syrian border in November 2015.

However, Putin and Erdogan have taken steps to settle their differences since then.

After the meeting in Soci, Putin told the media that relations between the two countries had returned to the first <x0-level crisis”.

“Foundations have been born for political solutions in Syria,” added Erdogan, even though details of such a new agreement remain unknown.

According to Hasas, Turkey-Russia relations remain the fragile “” due to their opposing interests in Syria and elsewhere.

The “seems absurd that within a short time Moscow will supply S-400 to a NATO member state, Turkey, with which there are troubled relations that begin from bilateral trade and Crime and to the Syrian crisis and the Kurdish problem,” he said.

The two sides still have disagreements. And all these issues remain to be resolved,” added Has.

Has also said it is strange that Russia would supply Turkey with S-400 systems when countries like Syria, Iran and Armenia, which are closer to Russia and are enemies of Turkey, only have lower-level S-300 systems.

“won't be an easy task for Russia to offer a system more advanced compared to 300 for a NATO member country, only if Ankara presents Moscow with a “exit plan” from the North Atlantic alliance, or at least a “harte” weakening relations with the Western military camp,” he explained.

Restore of Friendship Relations Will Have Effects on Balkans

“From Moscow's perspective, if Turkey and Russia can co-operate on other issues the Syrian issue is at the top of -- it is possible that in the coming years, we will discuss a historic geopolitical change in Turkey's foreign policy orientation --” said Has.

“in this sense, S-400 can only be a” visible part of the iceberg” in this new restoration of friendly relations between Turkey and Russia and, in parallel, an important moment in Ankara's deteriorating relations with NATO”.

The deterioration of relations with the Western alliance and the restoration of friendly relations with Moscow will certainly affect the Balkans,”, it continued.

Both Russian and Turkish influence is growing in the Balkans, in part due to a gradual weakening of the US and EU positions in the region in recent years.

The “is no secret that Ankara has an impact on Muslims in the region and is increasing its trade volume and co-operation with other countries,” said a Turkish expert on the Balkans, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“On the other hand, Russia is an eternal rival of the Western Balkans with its Slavic and Orthodox roots. The two countries are trying to be more powerful in the region and can try to replace the EU and the US in the region if they decide to work together,” he added.

He explained that, due to the many problems that arise now between the West and Turkey, the divisions between Russia and the West for the region and the decline of EU power, such co-operation seems more possible now than ever before.

If Russia and Turkey were willing to sit at a table and discuss the situation in Syria, finding common positions and interests in the Balkans would be even easier, he predicted.

Hasa agreed. “The restoration of good relations between Ankara and Moscow could provide Russia a “energy” with greater influence on its foreign policy in the Balkans and implementation of the Kremlin energy projects could also be accelerated. Russian insight into critical energy infrastructure in Balkan countries could win new impetus with a rift in Turkey's relations - NATO,” said Has.

He concluded: “Moscow is also likely to try to change Turkey's policy for Kosovo and use Turkey's “soft power” for Muslim communities in the Balkan region in its favour and vice versa.” / BIRN/