The Guardian: Russia is preparing a “provocation” in Baltic or Poland

Two countries on the eastern NATO wing have warned that Russia is preparing a possible “provocation” in the Baltic states or Poland, in a bid to test the timing of the Western military alliance.

Western sources, reports the BBC, are also afraid of danger on the horizon because the Kremlin is being pressured by Ukraine's campaign for long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg.

On Monday, Latvian intelligence said: “However, this would be far less than a full - scale attack.

A top political source from a second member NATO made a similar statement last week. They said that “we are collecting information” that Vladimir Putin was planning something against Baltic states”.

They said Putin may be willing to test US support for some of NATO's smaller member states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - in a desperate"attempt to throw away the zari"as Russia fights its invasion of Ukraine.

Letonese intelligence said Russia was unable to open a second front, but was considering <x0... hybrid attacks, such as rockets, fears or other actions designed to send a signal: stop Ukraine's support, or you will have your own problems".

Although warnings seem linked, there were only limited supporting details, unlike detailed warnings issued by the CIA and MI6 prior to the full invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022.

But they come at a time when Russia's progress in Ukraine is blocked, raising questions about whether the Kremlin would be directed into alternative strategies to break the deadlock or change the dynamic in its favour.

Keir Giles, an expert in Russia with the Menitank Chatham House, said: "Moska will look for ways to disrupt the current trend, through horizontal escalation [spreading conflict in other countries] or doing something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to lose passively. "

Russia's relative weakness was highlighted this week when the drone transmission stations in Belarus stopped operating after Ukraine threatened to attack them. Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, had given Belarus a week-long warning last Friday, saying the equipment enabled Russian attacks on his country.

A Telegram channel reported that the Belarusian authorities in the country's Brest and Gomel regions had demanded that mobile operators dismantle the repeaters because they were interfering in their nesting sites.

Men, one of whom is without a T - shirt, climbing spine wire to some wooden poles

Ukraine strengthens northern defence amid fears that Belarus is withdrawing to war

NATO will hold its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, this month amid uncertainty about US commitment to the alliance. On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he felt"disappointed"by European allies who did not allow the American Air Force to bomb Iran from air fields in their countries.

Since the beginning of Ukraine's full - scale invasion, there have been several waves of sabotage and provocative Russian activity, including the placing of fire bombs on the DHL packages in the United Kingdom, Poland and Germany in the summer of 2024.

Last September, 19 fears from Russians-karracter went into Polish airspace, prompting NATO to establish fighter aircraft to try to bring them down, while people in three eastern provinces were told to take refuge inside.

Ukraine has gradually developed a capacity of deep domestic attack, capable of hitting 2,000km targets within Russia. Last week, nearly 200 fears hit several locations in Moscow, and black oil fell over parts of the Russian capital after a refinery was bombed.

A Western military source said there was concern that Russia could attack if Putin thought he was under pressure, while the war moved to the Moscow and St Petersburg horizon. "I can't lie, this is a danger period,"they said.

Concerns about a possible Russian escalation also surfaced in the fall of 2022, when a series of unexpected changes in Kharkiv province led to Western fears that Moscow could also use a nuclear weapon to defend itself. But there was no evidence for steps towards a actual deployment, and the front line was stabilised by the end of the year.