“-member” in the EU: Is this the future of the Western Balkans?

The veto right, envisioned in the EU founding treaties, implies the possibility that, in some political decisions called for unanimity, as it is for the admission of new members, any member state can block the decision.

Discussion on the possibility that six Western Balkan states will be admitted to the EU without veto rights is emerging as an option mentioned in connection with the peace negotiations in Ukraine, which the United States currently holds.

Although the EU is formally not involved in these negotiations, the possibility of Ukraine's membership in the bloc is being considered as part of a package of a peace agreement with Russia. This has sometimes been confirmed to journalists informally by American officials.

Ten states belong to the enlargement group: six Western Balkan countries, as well as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Turkey, even though part of this process for more than ten years, has its membership negotiations frozen.

Could Brussels' eventual will to open its doors to Ukraine after the peace achieved also have an impact on Balkan states?

What is the European Commission's position?

When asked about a possible easing of the Balkan countries' membership criteria, the European Commission's media service told Free Europe Radio that EU enlargement is now seen not only in the perspective of economic benefits but also in a security context.

The enlargement brings clear benefits to both member states and countries aimed at membership. The current debate clearly points to one thing: enlargement is also about security. In the current geopolitical context, we need to make sure that our approach meets the” goal, the EC's response says.

A European Commission spokesman confirmed that Ukraine's future membership in the bloc is part of the peace negotiations, but Brussels does not want to prejudge the outcome.

It is clear that EU integration can contribute to our common goal: ensuring peace and prosperity for Ukraine. That's also what Kornise for Prosperes said from the EC's media service.

“Cornosis for Prosperes” is an American-European document for Ukraine designed to provide Kiev with financial guarantees, along with security guarantees, for stabilising Ukraine after the war with Russia ended.

Who is behind this informal proposal?

Marta Kos, commissioner for Enlargement and Politicians from Slovenia, is supportive of reviewing veto rights for future members in order for membership to become easier, says about REL a source within the EC.

Kos so far has not spoken publicly about this possibility, while a conversationor of REL says its position does not enjoy full support in the EC. In fact, there is no clear position among the 27 member states, nor enthusiasm about a possible change of “rules of the game” in the process of accepting new members.

Likewise, unofficial sources from the European Commission estimate that the head of this institution, Ursula von der Leyeen, could support such an idea if this was the price to be paid for ending the war in Ukraine. More precisely, it is explained that this would only be possible if it was certain that such an initiative would be accepted, at least to be considered, by EU member states.

What would this change involve? First, I gave up veto rights, then gradual membership, first through access to the common market, with possible monitoring added in all phases, until full membership, when all criteria are met.

The EU's common market, established in 1993, functions as a unique borderless space, implementing the concept of “four freedoms”: free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Western Balkan states, the nearest EU neighbours, do not enjoy this opportunity. Even though they are not members of the EU, access to this market has Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland.

Moreover, the criterion set for all states that contribute to the EU, and which does not compromise, relates to rule of law.

What task should Serbia fulfill?

Recent changes to justice laws initiated by the Serbian president's party, Aleksandar Vuciq, have clearly imposed rule of law at the head of conditions for Serbia, which has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012.

European officials stress that Serbia has recently noted regress on rule of law through the adoption of the contracting laws of justice.

The European Commission has estimated that with this Serbia has taken a step back in the European integration process, as these laws, in Brussels' opinion, jeopardise the independence of the judiciary. It is about an undoubtedly sensitive request for Belgrade, which has made changes in justice at a moment when power faces widespread protests, with key demands related to the fight against crime and corruption.

The message from Brussels has echoed in Belgrade, and Serbia's mission chief near the EU, Daniell Apostolovic, has declared that three new chapters in negotiations will not be opened until the issue of laws is resolved.

President Vuciq himself, who supported changes to justice laws, in the context of negotiations with the EU has paid more attention to the veto issue. Serbia would be willing to give up veto rights for the sake of membership, Vuciq said on February 16th in an interview for the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemen Zeitung.

The most important aspect for us is the common market and free movement of goods, people and capital. These are the central values we want to achieve through EU membership”, Vuciq said, the German newspaper reported.

Serbia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as the institutions responsible for negotiations with the EU, have not been approved on the issue.

Vuchy's not alone. Facing corruption charges that have led to protests and clashes in the streets of Tirana, Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama, has stated several times in the past two months he is willing to give up his veto right to a half-membership in the EU.

In the face of corruption charges that led to demonstrations and clashes in the streets of Tirana, Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama, several times over the past two months, has declared he is willing to give up veto rights for a “half-member” in the EU.

Albanian institutions have not been promoted to this possibility. Albania has successfully opened all chapters in negotiations for membership and now expects to begin closing them. Albania, along with neighbouring Montenegro, are the most successful countries in terms of negotiations with Brussels.

Why is Brussels' idea not attractive to Podgorica?
Montenegro is the state that has advanced most in the membership process, with a real prospect of ending negotiations and becoming an EU member at the end of this decade.

In this context, the offer for a progressive membership is not attractive to this state, as Podgorica is located at the last mile of closing the negotiation process leading to the signing of the Membership Agreement.

Montenegro's Minister for European Integrations Maida Gorchevic tells Radio Free Europe that in Podgorica “are aware that different ideas exist for phased membership and mata” that for some states may seem a easier and faster way. Montenegro, however, remains committed to the merit-based model.

Our “goal is clear: full membership, equal to all existing member states. We believe such an approach is best not only for the Montenegrin society and economy, but also for the European Union itself, because only fully prepared states can further strengthen the European project”, Gorchev says.

Relief for Northern Macedonia

Two decades ago, North Macedonia was considered one of the countries that had advanced in European integrations. Today, it is the biggest hostage to the policy of veto rights of EU member states.

As a candidate for full membership since 2005, northern Macedonia has been promised since 2009 that it would open accession negotiations once the name dispute with neighbouring Greece is resolved.

The dispute was resolved in 2018, Greece removed its veto, but Bulgaria used its veto rights and continues to block Northern Macedonia in the process of European integrations, insisting on respecting common historical and linguistic heritage, and seeking constitutional and educational changes to recognise Bulgarian minorities.

The North Macedonian government tells Free Europe Radio that they are willing to adapt to possible changes within the EU.

This would basically mean membership and institutional presence in the EU since 2027, but with limited decision-making capacity, gradual integration and conditions, and strong monitoring to full compliance with the European system. As Government, we are fully aware of the dynamic changes that take place and of the need to predict and adapt to”, the Macedonian executive stressed.

Bosnia, Kosovo welcome signal

The invasion of Ukraine, which has already entered the fifth year, has revived the enlargement process, which for years had been the sleeping “”.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is still recovering from the traumas of war 30 years ago, is a typical example. Candidate status received it in December 2022, shortly after Ukraine and precisely because of Ukraine, even though Sarajevo had failed to meet the necessary conditions the EC had previously established.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Foreign Affairs Minister Emedin Konakovovic said last week that the idea of membership without veto rights was backed by him several years ago.

“In the first phase, opening the opportunity to enter the EU without veto rights, with further fulfillment of conditions to reach this stage, is phenomenal. That means a lot, attracting investments, increasing wages and living standards, keeping young people in Bosnia and Herzegovina and providing more funds for all problems, even trams in Sarajevo. So this is something the country needs, and when we focus on this, everything will be easier and more beautiful”, Konakovic said on February 19th in Banjaluka.

Konakovic allowed two problems that weigh down on daily life in Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to Union data on sustainable return from 2023, in the last decade some 600,000 people have fled. The recent tragedy of leaving the tracks of an old tram in Sarajevo sparked protests by citizens dissatisfied with the poor functioning of public services.

Kosovo, where also memories of the war are still fresh, is the only state in the enlargement group that does not have candidate status, even though it has submitted its application in 2022. Five EU member states do not recognise Kosovo's independence, which blocks discussion on candidate status application.

Kosovo Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Diaspore Kreshnik Ahmeti estimates that giving Kosovo candidate status, the EU would send a signal that the integration process for Western Balkan states will have equal treatment for all, given each's merits.

“The MPJD does not comment on the closed evental discussions of EU institutions. If this hypothetical scenario materializes, we will examine it at the right time. Now, for Kosovo it is important to begin the formal integration process, receiving candidate status and questionnaire”, Ahmeti tells Radio Free Europe.

“Expositing harsh reality”

With those words, Adi Cherigiq, analyst for the Western Balkans at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI), describes the debate on the so-called semi-membership, without veto rights or increased monitoring after EU entry.

The member states have not yet made a substantial political decision on whether, under what conditions, they want to accept new members”, Chermagic estimates.

He emphasises that in recent years a new moment has been talked about and that there has been a marked progress in the negotiating process, but that the main political issue remains open -- whether the EU wants enlargement, at what time and according to which criteria.

The “in such a context is not surprising to see discussions on alternative models: from membership without veto rights, through stricter sanctions for reggression, to the idea of so-called upside down membership, under which candidates would be formally joined in the bloc, and then continue working on to harmonise with rules and standards”, he says.

Cerimagic confirms that the details of new models are being considered within EU institutions, but available information is limited:

Under clear lines of the model the European Commission can develop, it is difficult to predict the positions of member states, and even more difficult to detect the possibilities of possible compromise”.

He believes that for the Western Balkan countries, the best result would be for the 27 member states to show political will and readiness for an agreement on a key or important goal for all candidates.

This goal would have to ensure the EU's credibility and strengthen political support for reforms to candidates from harmonising legislation with the European acquis to strengthening the rule of law and democratic institutions. To achieve this, the EU must pave the way for candidates to substantial benefits of membership: access to the common market and full exploitation of four freedoms of movement. Anything less than that would be another lost option”, Cherimagic says.

Is progressive membership possible within the existing legal framework?
The answer to this question is clear: it is simply not possible to accept new members into the EU without changing the EU Treaty.

The current treaty does not provide for limited membership or membership without veto power. All member states have the same status in the EU's legal order.

To change the EU Treaty, a unanimous agreement of all member states is needed. In the current geopolitical context of the EU, this is an almost impossible mission.

Should any country complete membership negotiations within the existing legal framework, membership will be realised according to treaties, with full rights and obligations.