Will Russia accept the American ceasefire proposal with Ukraine?

On March 12th, US officials left for Moscow, Trump said, after Ukraine agreed with the US plan for an immediate 30-day ceasefire that could be extended. The deal was reached during a meeting held in Saudi Arabia on March 11th between American and Ukrainian officials.

On March 13th, American officials arrived in Russia for talks. But will Russia accept the proposal?

A cut “is an option, but the issue will not end with that, reports REL, broadcast Periscope.

“While it is clear that the safest bets are that Russia will refuse the offer of a ceasefire, I would not rule out this issue so quickly”, the analyst for Russia, Sam Greene, wrote. “depending on the way Moscow sees the European policy trajectory, it could conclude that a ceasefire is in its interest.

In this text, you can learn what three possibilities are:

Firm Rejection

If Russia's actions comply with public statements, rejection is the most likely scenario. Russian President Vladimir Putin, and other Russian officials have repeatedly said that what Moscow wants is not a ceasefire, but a comprehensive peace deal addressing what it claims to see as the key “collapses of the war.

Putin began his full - scale invasion in February 2022 in order to subdue Ukraine, but these statements suggest that Russia may not be prepared to stop fighting until an agreement meets the Kremlin's demands. Moscow, among other things, demands that there be Ukrainian neutrality, contracting the Ukrainian Army and changing the Government in Kiev, or at least one clear way to the departure of President Voldymyr Zelensky.

Russia also wants an agreement that goes beyond Ukraine, reducing NATO's influence in Eastern Europe, and that Moscow is given more influence on security decisions affecting the entire continent of goals that go beyond the limits of a temporary ceasefire.

With Russian forces moving slowly but steadily east of Ukraine, and Kiev forces withdrawing to the Kurdish region of Russia, Putin may see no reason to stop fighting now.

Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian Parliament's Supreme Chamber, referred to this issue openly on March 12th, saying Washington must understand that the true “agreements are still being written... on the front line”.

Moreover, a firm refusal would satisfy Russian pro-war bloggers to not mention even radical members of Putin's circle who would likely view accepting the ceasefire proposal as handover by the Kremlin.

Unreserved Approval

These factors suggest that an unconditional admission by Russia for the ceasefire proposal is unlikely to happen. Next factor: If he is considering accepting the temporary ceasefire, the Kremlin may want to put its seal on the deal.

Any agreement... will be according to our non-American terms”, Kosachev wrote on the telegram.

 

 

 

“Yes, but...”

While the unconditional accession option seems to be disfellowshipped, Russia “could conclude that a ceasefire is in its interests”, said Greene, professor at Russia's King Institute and director of democracy at the Centre for European Policy Analysis. He, in a post, suggested Putin could accept this if he saw it as a good way to approach the fulfillment of his goals.

Moscow's main target “is command over Ukraine. In the absence of the opportunity to achieve this on the battlefield, Russia may be temporarily or otherwise satisfied to exercise control through the threat of regaining aggression”, he wrote. “A ceasefire can enable Russia a degree of control over Ukraine, which it requires, as long as conditions do not create a real preemptive against a new aggression”.

According to Greene, discussions on a possible deployment of a European force in Ukraine could play a role in Moscow's calculations.

“If Moscow thinks Europe is serious about sending troops to the ground, it could accept a ceasefire before Europe is organised and then make the lack of troops conditional on preserving the” ceasefire.

Mark Galeott, expert for Russia and professor at the School for Slavonic Studies in London, suggested Putin faces a difficult solution.

Radical “Elements are already claiming that this means abuse of the momentum that Russia currently has” on the battlefield, he wrote in The Spectator. “At the same time, rejection would be a loss of an extraordinary possibility that Trump has given them to consolidate victories, with a fifth of Ukraine under control, and at least partly normalise reports with the US”.

Putin could count that accepting a ceasefire could help reduce Western sanctions against Russia, Galeotti wrote, and he could also worry that if he refuses, it could lead Trump to take a much tougher stance on Moscow. On March 12th, Trump said the US could impose sanctions on Russia if it remains undecided, but added that “hopes we will not need such a thing”.

Like other analysts, Galeotti predicted that Moscow would impose conditions on any ceasefire agreement, such as Ukrainian withdrawal from Russia's Kursk region, where Kiev forces have been in control of territory since last August's surprise offensive, offensive that has humiliated Putin.

“Putin will probably try to solve this situation by accepting the ceasefire on the condition that Ukraine's forces in Kurks, which are already withdrawing, be fully withdrawn from Russian territory”, he wrote.

Sergei Markov, former Kremlin adviser, said another possible condition would be the suspension of Western military aid to Kiev during the ceasefire.

Russia's response to the ceasefire proposal may be éjo, but yes, but”, Markov wrote on the telegram. “This means accepting the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire on the condition that an embargo be imposed on arms supplies to Ukraine that would be in effect throughout this period”.

On March 12th, Trump reiterated that he hopes for rapid progress in ending the war, saying that “do not want to waste time, people are dying”.

But a crucial Russian response to the ceasefire proposal may not come as quickly as the US and Ukraine would like.

“Putin will likely attempt to extend the deadline for accepting any fighting ban in Ukraine in order to ensure the most favourable conditions possible for Moscow”, Bloomberg News reported on March 12th, citing some people who said they have knowledge about the situation.

“Kremlin has given no signal that he is interested in the truce and in fact there are many indicators that are not”, Greene wrote on X. “Although all of this may be an empty threat, they are likely to try to disturb Washington, both for speed and for the form of the” agreement.