Who forms the new government? Shenoll Muharrem shows the five possible scenarios

He through a Facebook post has given five scenarios, how the new government can be formed through coalitions.

His full post:

All scenarios: Who forms the New Government?

February 9th elections are giving us an interesting result: LVV came in first, probably 48 seats. Other parties are expected to have approximately: PDK with 24, LDK with 20, AAK-N with 8, non-Serb minorities with 10 and Serb minorities with 10. Now the main question is, who can form the government, who makes the minimum 61 votes?

Option 1. LVV: Can it alone?

LVV, if it has 48 deputies, even non-Serb minorities are guaranteed by vessels in government, so 48 + 10 = 58. A Serbian MP is likely to be taking it to 59. But the problem is 59 are not 61. It leads to either having to meet an opposition MP or finding me a partner.

Option 2: LVV + AAK-N (66 votes)

A different scenario is that LVV is dealing with AAK-Nisma. Or one of them, that both have deputies in the Assembly. They have 8 deputies together. Here with non-Serb minorities, 66 votes. And if they disagree The Initiative AAK, one of them can join. The controversy during the campaign is known to have been strong, but the AAK is known to play pragmatically when it comes to power. This scenario should not be removed from the option altogether, especially after a crisis.

option 3: LVV + Pacikas + LDK (78 votes)

The LDK with 20 deputies (because one more) gives LVV with non-Serb minorities a comfortable majority. But is that real? For now, the LDK views itself as a strong opposition, confirming that every day. “We don't go in LV”. And since there's already been a coalition with the LVV that lasts a long time, this scenario seems hard to realise.

Option 4: LVV + PDK + non-Serb Minorities (82 votes)

It does not seem possible, it is being rejected by the PDK fairly. We don't deal with LV in the coalition” they're officially declaring each day. And on the other hand, are they increasing the market? The PDK wants the prime minister, that job is known. LVV wants stability. The tired Albin Kurt already doesn't want adventure. This coalition, while not looking possible, is the most stable option. Especially the loss of votes resolves the president's “ “. The coalition has 82 votes, and that means that even the president could be part of hisse. LVV had to say “though if we gave you the prime minister, why wouldn't Albin become president?

Option 5: Bon 61 opposition?

 

 

If LVV doesn't want to cooperate and insist on going into opposition, the opinion can create its own government. Does he have the votes? Yeah, 62 votes. Will it be? Why not, someone has to form the government. If LVV can't form, the opposition should be willing to form its government. Yes, do you accept the LDK to work with the PDK? The LDK is not very much preferred to have access to “don't expel us with others” but if they agree to keep up the new road, and if you earn half of the ministries, you include finances, you're probably seriously considering that. The AAK has stated that it supports a government from the opposition, there is no doubt here.

...

Who has the best chance?

The options will need to be followed:

1. LVV + Non-Serb Minorities (58 votes not enough)
2. LVV + AAK-N + Non-Serb Minorities (66 votes, possible scenario)
3. PDK + LDK + AAK-N + Non-Serb Minorities (62 votes, opposition takes power)
4. LVV + PDK + non-Serb Minorities (82 votes, the most difficult but more stable and stable scenario with the president's letter included)