Trump-Kosovo reports: What they were and what can be expected

From the economic agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, Israel's recognition, to political differences and accusations are events marking Kosovo's reports with the past US administration, led by Donald Trump, 2016-2020.

Now that Trump was chosen for the second term, political connoisseurs in Kosovo and abroad have separate positions for the effects this administration will have on Kosovo.

Africa Hoti, professor of Law and International Relations at the University of Pristina, is optimistic that Trump brings a “positive opportunity for Kosovo and the region”.

While for Toby Vogel, the Council for Democratic Policy in Berlin “as also a positive” for the Balkans cannot come from the selection of Trump.

Economic normalisation and political conflicts

During Donald Trump's first term as US President (2016-2020), his administration focused strongly on what it called “economic abnormalisation” of relations between Kosovo and Serbia.

The main goal, according to this administration, was for economic co-operation to put “first plan on citizens' benefits, reducing political tensions in the region”.

The special envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, Richard Green, played a key role in the effort, stressing that the lack of such an agreement posed a major obstacle to the economic development of both countries and to attracting foreign investment.

In the four years the US president was Trump, three prime ministers were changed to Kosovo: Ramush Haradinaj from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Albin Kurti from the Vetevendosje Movement and Avdullah Hoti from the Democratic League of Kosovo.

An important moment of mediation of the Trump Administration, in Kosovo-Serbia relations occurred on September 4th 2020, when Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, and then Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti, signed the Agreement on Normalising Economic Relations at the White House.

The agreement included concrete infrastructure projects such as the Pristina-Merdare Peace Highway and a railway line on the same road to facilitate movement and trade between Kosovo and Serbia. Although the highway project continued on both sides, it still remains completely unfinished.

Another key element was the study of feasibility for Ujman Lake, which extends to the Kosovo-Serbia border.

The US completed this study in June 2021 and proposed a joint management model.

Grenelli even suggested that the lake be renamed “Lake Trump”, a proposal which received support from Hoti and Serbian officials, even though there were mixed reactions from the public.

Also, Grenelli brokered an agreement in January 2020 between Kosovo, Serbia and German company Lufthansa to establish a direct Pristina-Belgrade airline. Trump described this as another “victory,” but the line has not yet been implemented.

Trump's mediation brought Kosovo recognition from the state of Israel.

Unlike this period, the administration's relations of Trump and especially Yerenelli with Albin Kurt were tense.

Kurti, when he first took up his post in early 2020, was often confronted by Yerenelli, who publicly criticised Kurt as <x0).

Tensions culminated in March 2020 when Kurt's government collapsed through a no-confidence motion, which Kurti claimed was orchestrated with the support of Yerenelli.

One of the tensions points was a 100 per cent customs fee against Serbian-born goods imposed by the Haradinaj government in 2018.

According to Kurti, Grenelli demanded the removal of the fee without reciprocal measures, which Kurt strongly opposed.

Kurti also accused Grenelli of direct intervention in the political crisis in Kosovo, saying he had proposed an agreement with Serbia for territorial exchange and that such an agreement “could not be a” peace agreement.

Green, in turn, described Kurt as a <x0 problem” and continued to argue that his approach was necessary to advance American interests in the Balkans.

Even after the completion of Trump's first term, Yerenelli's criticism of Kurti has not dropped.

In the summer of 2023, Yerell commented on Kurt's actions in northern Kosovo, especially in Serb majority municipalities, naming them as actions that endangered the stability of the region.

The current US administration under President Joe Biden's leadership has also criticised some of Kurt's unilateral actions, especially in the north of the country, calling them harmful to relations with Washington.

In August, Grenelli sharply criticised Kurti on social networks, stressing that “Kurti is a problem”.

Despite that, current Prime Minister Albin Kurti congratulated Trump on the victory, saying he is eager to wait “to work together for progress and peace“.

Opposition party leaders in Kosovo have also congratulated Trump on victory in the November 5th election.

Second mandate, <x0-positive or very negative”

In an interview for Radio Free Europe, Professor Africa Hoti of Pristina University considers the election of Donald Trump president of the US as a positive development for Kosovo and the Balkans.

Hoti believes the Trump administration can bring new energy to US relations with Kosovo and the region.

I want to believe that anyone who heads Kosovo institutions should be aware that it matters little who leads the White House. So, which administration leads the United States, because with both one and the other, our institutions have had close reports of”.

Hoti, too, adds that Kosovo must strengthen lobbie efforts with the US to maintain this important relationship, as this lobby has so grown in Serbia.

“Already things have changed, and the Serbs are already on the offensive, they are lobbiing bigger. Eventually, our institutions should be aware of these actions and re-enable the country over US”, says Hoti.

On the other hand, Toby Vogel predicts that the Balkans will not be too high on the Trump agenda, but believes that any influence his administration will have in the region, “will not be positive”.

More specifically, he cites the possibility of resurrecting the scheme of “exchange of territories,”, where Serbia can annex Kosovo's north and which, according to him, cannot be concluded peacefully.

The Europeans are not willing to oppose this in fact, the last time this idea was seriously discussed was under the initiative of EU foreign policy chief Federica Moghrini, and was later taken by the administration of Trump”, Vogel says.

In addition, he warned that Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq could try to create <x0 specifics on the ground,” especially in northern Kosovo, and that “Kurti may feel obliged to act before the inauguration of Trump and elections in Kosovo in February”.

The predominantly Serb Kosovo north has been a constant hearth of tensions in Kosovo since Kosovo's independence is rejected in that area. A Last Attack Armed in September 2023, he killed a Kosovo policeman.

However, Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, was among the first in the region to congratulate Trump's victory, and the election result was also enjoyed by Serb citizens in northern Kosovo. /RadioEurope Lire