Judah: Green Return Could Bring Concerns for Kosovo Government

Still without returning to the White House, numerous analysts and observers increasingly lay the issue of positioning President Donald Trump's new administration, in terms of current world crisis centres, without excluding the Balkan region here as well.

British analyst Tim Judah tells Radio Free Europe that it is early to talk about it because it will depend on those who will be appointed to certain duties.

Richard Green's eventual recovery, which during the Trump administration was an American representative in Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, would be of significant influence, and for that, the government in Pristina may have reason to worry, he says.

Judah expresses sceptical about the possibility that the new administration Trump achieves a final agreement between Kosovo and Serbia:

“Trump tried before. There was a famous signature in Washington on two separate deals, but nothing major came out of them”, says Judah in the REL interview.

Radio Free Europe: What do you think will be the potential priorities of President Trump's new administration for the Western Balkans?

Tim Judah: I don't think Mr. Trump has ever thought about the Balkans. There are some people around him, like Richard Green, who certainly thought about the Balkans.

What happens depends on those who will be appointed to certain duties. For example, will Richard Greenell, who played an important role earlier? Will it be influential again? In that case, I think there may be reason for concern, especially for Government in Pristina.

If you ask Trump today, what are your priorities in the Balkans, I think he would probably have no idea, maybe even have trouble finding the Balkans on the map, so I don't think the Balkans is on the list of his main issues. However, he must appoint persons who will draft politics and deal with the rest of the world. Let's see who I'm assigning.

Radio Free Europe: Do you think the new Trump administration will be able to reach a final agreement between Kosovo and Serbia?

Tim Judah: I think it's unlikely, because at the end of the day, there should be political will in Kosovo and Serbia, or other preliminary governments of Kosovo and Serbia. Actually, I don't think there's any political will to do that, so it doesn't matter much. I mean, yes, of course, it's important that Americans and Europeans are united and support a form of solution. The fact is that they have been united in recent years, but the problem has been with the lack of political will in Belgrade and Pristina. You know, sir. Trump tried earlier. There was a famous signature in Washington for two separate deals, but nothing big came out of them. So I'm not sure if there will be changes to Trump's second administration.

Radio Free Europe: However, observers do not rule out the possibility of another localised confrontation in northern Kosovo to reach a final agreement between the two states. What do you think?

Tim Judah: That sounds like a conspiracy theory. I don't think anyone in Washington would agree to have a kind of confrontation in the north to reach a deal. I don't agree with that. I think there will be an agreement for northern Kosovo when there is political will to do so, in Pristina and in Belgrade.

Radio Free Europe: With President Trump, do you expect a reduction of tensions in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina due to Serb-rus influence?

Tim Judah: I think it's too early. It will depend on those who will be appointed to certain positions in administration. I think there are people who think, maybe for good reason, that some of Trump's men are still mentioning Mr. Green, they were clearly pro-Serb. If Green, for example, turns into an important position in the White House or the new administration, but there is reason for concern in Kosovo and Bosnia. I'm replaying, we still don't know who will do what in the next administration.

Radio Free Europe: Speaking of these issues in northern Macedonia, what can we expect from the new US administration to help resolve the dispute with Bulgaria, particularly the inclusion of Bulgarians in the Constitution?

Tim Judah: I'm not quite sure why a new administration should be different from the previous one in this regard? I don't understand why. I think there is no reason why they will not continue with the same policy and try to persuade Government to do what is necessary. However, I am not convinced that there will be any major change in politics. I see no reason. And, I think the problem is not only here; it is also political instability in Bulgaria after seven parties of elections in recent years.

There are problems here, there are also problems in Bulgaria. Such issues, particularly Bulgaria's, are not related to Americans and have nothing to do with anything they might influence. So I don't see why there's a difference in this aspect about North Macedonia.

Radio Free Europe: All in all, how do you think Trump's foreign policy will affect Ukraine and the current crisis there, especially considering its earlier commitments with Russia and its positions on NATO?

Tim Judah: Trump has triumphantly declared that he can finish the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. And J.D. Vance, referred to as the possible vice president, has said the solution should include giving up lost territories and not membership in NATO, which implies a lack of security guarantees that Ukrainians would probably not accept.

They may be forced to accept whether Trump decides to cut off supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, but it is still too early to draw conclusions, because there are many forces within the Republican Party that definitely do not want to abandon Ukraine and wish to face Russia.

The decision, then, will not be entirely in Trump's hand. Of course, he is undoubtedly the main player in the Ukrainian issue, but not the only one. Besides, Trump is unpredictable. It's like finance.

You see investment ads and say, at least in Britain, past performance is not a guide for the future. And, I think that might be true of Trump. Past performance and what he said in the past may not be guidelines for the future. So let us see. Unfortunately, we still don't know. It's too early.