Does Europe have a partner talks on Trump?

If Donald Trump wins the election on November 5th, his course of confrontation with European partners could disturb the political and security policy structure in the EU and NATO. Who can intercede on such a occasion? In the EU, the names of some politicians are being coveted as partners in talks on Trump if he will be the new US president.

If this is about security policy challenges, Secretary General NATO, Mark Rutte, is considered the first choice. But also Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melon and Polish President Andreze Duda, being of the same party line have been positioned as Trump allies.

Mark Rutte: A pro-European who can influence Trump

At least three high-level sources from NATO, who do not want to be quoted by name, have confirmed it DW, that Rutte as prime minister of the Netherlands (2010 to 2024) during Donald Trump's first presidential term has had a good report with him. That was one of the reasons Rutte was elected secretary general NATO, to prepare the defence alliance against a possible return of Trump to the White House.

Mark Rutte is known to influence Trump, but he can stay steadfast, if necessary, both in bilateral talks and in NATO summits, says former Deputy Undersecretary of the Camille Grand coalition, today security and defence policy expert near European Council on Foreign Regulations.

When Trump in 2018 threatened at the NATO summit, the US would leave the alliance, if Europe did not increase defence spending, it was Rutte who found a way out of the situation. He pointed out to the former president, then, that defence expenses are due to Trump ʹ will already increase.

Ian Lesser, head of the German Marshall Fund's office of the United States (GMF), says that Rutte can transmit Trump a best “weight sharing “within the alliance: 23 out of 32 NATO member states, among them heavy loads like France and Germany, would reach and even exceed this year the annual quota of expenses for protection at the level of two percent of the gross product in the country. In exchange, Rutte will ask for assurances regarding aid to Ukraine and continued US engagement in NATO.

Trump has threatened not only to cut off aid for Ukraine but also to encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to do “whatever he wants with his allies. His former adviser for community security, John Bolton, thinks, that Trump can even get the US out of NATO. While expert Lesser says: “Rutte expects Washington's position to be predictable, especially in the background of the Russian war. ”

Victor Orban: “Trump before Trump”

Rutte is in the race with Victor Orban. The Hungarian prime minister in July, after visits to Beijing, Kiev and Moscow at a <x0->mision peace” also met with Trump. There he appeared as an EU mediator for ending the Russian war in Ukraine.

When Trump's Democrat rival Kamala Harris said in September, that the heads of state and government in the world “enjoyed” with the former president, Trump cited close reports with Orban and praised him as a strong, persistent and wise prime minister of Hungary.

Zsuzsanna Vega, analyst at the German Marshall Fund of the United States “for Central Europe, said that Orban with his contacts with Trump in the first place aims to strengthen its prestige and image as a key international guide personality: “The Trump Final can also encourage Orban to continue the autocratic route in his country”, said Vega, thus Orban <x> to further undermine the EU loan as a democracy <4>

Experts believe that an Orban's hostile policy against migration and LGBTQ+ community - makes it preferable to supporters Trump's MAGA. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon called the Hungarian prime minister “Trump before Trump”. Orban is a close ally of President Vladimir Putin and opposes support for Ukraine from the EU. Observers fear he could influence Trump by talking to him about the Kremlin's images.

Although Orban's requests for ceasefire and talks coincide with the interests of American contact persons he has and in current circumstances even with Russia's interests, analyst Vegah, however, points out: “I doubt if President Putin needs the Hungarian prime minister to commit to the White House. ”

Although Orban may be with Trump a “type ideal”, says expert Lesser GMF director Mark Rutte is actually the strategic “partner of talks”, which engages in NATO security interests and has greater influence.

Duda and Mellon potentially as mediator

Other EU negotiating partners that are in the same line as Trump and Orban in terms of migration policy are in fact on Rutte's side regarding strategic issues. Polish President Andreze Duda of the nationalist Law and Justice Party ( The PiS) met Donald Trump in April. According to reports, he has convinced the republican that his party will unblock a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine at the US Congress.

“In the context of Poland's strategic position on the east side of NATO preserving solid relations with the US is considered crucial to national security, regardless of political affiliation”, writes to the DW, Macey Tiburski from Tnkantank “Warsaw Institute” Although the PiS and Republicans, along with Trump, are ideologically very close, the importance of American-Polact relations is much more valued by the overall political spectrum.

Even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melon is considered by her party colleagues as a perfect partner of talks for Donald Trump in case he wins the election. Some members of Italy's far-right Brothers ( The FdI has already met with the former US president. FdI MP Antonio Giorano in July attended the republican congress in Milwaukee. The Financial Times in an interview in September he told him that Melon is “the natural partner of the talks” for Trump, if “ai will understand how best to communicate with Europe”.

Although Melon does not support the US elections either Trump or Democrat candidate Kamala Harris, her proximity to Elon Musk since a January 2023 meeting is considered by some observers as a sign of her preference for the former president. Multimiliarder Musk is considered one of the most popular supporters of Trump's election campaign. Filippo Simonell of the Institute for International Relations told the DW, that Melon could try, as a mediator between the right arm of the European political scene and the EU Commission led by Ursula von der Leen, “that is increasingly guided right.” As such, it can also be positioned as mediator between the US and EU institutions.

Its ideological proximity to Trump, however, does not mean that Melon has lost its attention to the threat from Russia, says GMF Director Lesser: “It is an obedient transatlantic.” Melon has often expressed its support for Ukraine, and with that she has gained respect in Brussels. Like Duda, Melon praises NATO's importance as a defence alliance for Europe.

Trump can mobilise right extremists in Europe

According to some political analysts, the successes of right-wing politicians' talks with a new US President Trump could give a boost to European right-wings by somewhat normalising their EU movements. Comfort Ero, the howling of the Thinktank International Crisis Group, notes in a recently published article that a second government Trump “can strengthen the morality of right European politicians working against a stronger and more integrated Europe “.

And Trump's efforts, to negotiate bilatare with EU and NATO members, as he has acted during his first term, could weaken those institutions. Trump's unpredictable foreign policy, its preference for short-term accords and its disregard for multilaterism would make the EU difficult with 27 member states positioning it, writes Ero: “European politicians fear, that a second presidency Trump could be a test for unity within the EU. ”

“Orban, Melon and Duda are at least on domestic policy issues allied with Trump and will surely try to exploit this coalition”, says security expert Grand. “This rift over the European positioning against potential administration Trump does not help European and NATO interests, because the bilatheralism of security reports with the long-term US can undermine NATO.”