What does Kiev expect from the spring offensive?

A highway in Poland near the Ukrainian border. A column of a dozen olive - based vehicles comes one day from Ukraine. Cars are empty. I've seen a week. They have taken tanks to Ukraine”, says a taxi driver. “were huge tanks.” Each of these tanks is needed in Ukraine in the coming months and weeks. The Ukrainian Army appears to be ending in these weeks preparations for the counteroffensive announced several months ago. Ukraine's expectations are to bring the turn in the hard fight of the holes and to expel Russia from occupied territories. It can be a decisive battle, a relief response.

Fighting in Bahmut to Win Time 

Those traveling to Kiev experience a calm before the storm. Russian missile attacks, as of April 28th, have become more rare -- on the clean streets of the capital bloom flowers, cafes are full, war seems far away. And yet it always matters. In every corner you find plaques with calls to volunteer or to donate donations to the military. In Majdan, the square of independence, coffins of known soldiers are being brought to war almost every day.

Currently, many Ukrainian soldiers are leaving their lives in Bahmut. The town in the Donjeck region, surrounded for months, is largely under Russian control, yet the Ukrainian Army does not surrender. The military and government explain this with the protection of nearby cities. Kiev wants not only to connect Russian troops in Bahmut but also to gain time to prepare the counteroffensive. The Ukrainian Army has long preserved its reserves by paying a high price for it. The exact numbers are unknown.

Andriy and Maxym (names altered by editorials) also fought in Bahmut. They're currently back in Kiev, a few days off. “I very much hope that it was worth”, Andry says of the decision not to surrender to Bahmut at all costs. He doesn't look safe himself. Maksym relates to a great superiority in Russian troops, for poor preparation and lack of his unit's equipment. They both expect one thing against the counteroffensive: “at the bottom of the areas released”.

That's why Kiev waits

In Ukrainian media, counteroffensiva is a constant topic, but army representatives remain silent. All the questions addressed are answered: “please wait”. That's a lot of reasons. One, that not all the weapons promised from the West have reached the site. By the beginning of the year, Ukraine has received from NATO partners, many heavy military materials, “heavy metal”, as spoken of in the jargon: a dozen combat tanks and modern defenders from British and Russian production, American anti-missile defense systems, Soviet-type fighter aircraft.

For offensive military and National Guard, according to online portal data “Ukrajinska Pravda” created 16 new brigades, with a total of 50,000 people. These units need time to prepare, recognize new weapons. The next challenge is the co-ordinated mission of many entities, a widespread offensive. So far Ukraine has had no experience with this, and from Kiev counties it is said that possible scenarios have been seen playing in computers.

Weather conditions are also bad. Rain has made many paths for heavy combat technique. Ukrainian soldiers must wait until the trees are filled with leaves to better hide. It will last several days until the ground is dry and green has covered the trees and forests.

Crime as Strategic orientation

Where and how Ukraine will strike is one of the greatest secrets of war. But it looks like there's going to be two directions, and that's how the military did in the fall of 2002 in Kharkov and Kherson successfully. Ukrainian Army Commander General Valeriy Salusnyj designed a single programming article in September 2022 about what a Ukrainian counteroffensive might look like. He referred to a few consecutive countersets, in an ideal case at the same time”. As an important strategic point, Salusushij mentioned annexed crime. This is the main direction Ukraine will go to is often heard in Kiev. But fraud maneuvers and surprises are expected. Many also have doubts, if Ukraine can recover the Crimean Peninsula already. That's why this country doesn't have much force and combat equipment.

Even South Ukraine is viewed as an important combat target. From there Ukrainian forces want to head for Kiev to cut the Russian troops' supply from the ground. If this is accomplished, it would be important success for Kiev, but nothing seems to be easy. Russia has created several protective lines.

Counteroffensive will not end the war

Despite preparations for combat counteroffensive, the atmosphere in Kiev is contained. This offensive cannot fail, it will be released and other areas”, a military expert says. The “The question that's put on is how much and what price.” What that price means is well known to Private Andrij, every time he looks at his cell phone contact list. Many soldiers have fallen. I can't erase their numbers. ”

Another question is open: What will happen after the counteroffensive? Some fear that expectations will not be met, and that the West will force Ukraine for a solution to negotiations with painful concessions. The military has clearly expressed itself against this, “This will not happen”, Andrij says. He and many of his companions await a long war that will not end even after the counteroffensive, and they hope for more columns with heavy military equipment from the west. /dw