Reactivation of Kosovo-Serbia conflict, Russia's plan for US distraction from Ukraine

On December 10th, Serbs living in northern Kosovo began setting up barricades. Kosovo residents faced them, and Kosovo police blocked border crossings. A traffic jam followed, as well as a brief shootout, which included the use of a stun grenade.

The shots have been stopped, but threats have increased. A shootout for just a few license plates may seem an excessive reaction, but this is the Balkans. A relatively small area of many nationalities and whose political boundaries do not match ethnic ones. In the 1990s, there was a brutal civil war between these ethnic groups.

For example, Serbs are Christians, while Bosniaks are Muslims. Serbs and Bosniaks live near each other. The civil war that broke out there included the construction of concentration camps, and some estimate that more than 100,000 Bosniaks died, a figure rejected by Serbs.

Yet, no one suspects that it was a war of slaughter. Fightings were also at risk of lying in Kosovo, south of Serbia. Kosovars are ethnic Albanians and mostly Muslims living in an area claimed by Serbia.

When Serbian forces started entering Kosovo, the American and European government, aware of the massacre in Bosnia, were worried that another massacre would occur in Kosovo. NATO aircraft, mainly British and American, launched air strikes to force Serbs to leave.

The bombing took place in Serbia, and involved attacks on the Serbian capital, Belgrade. Those attacks caused many casualties in the ranks of Serb civilians. The United States wanted to reach a ceasefire with Serbs. Serbia's president refused, in part due to his anger at the Belgrade bombing, and in part because he feared he would face charges at The Hague, which actually happened.

Unable to secure Serbia's surrender, the air strikes continued. The US contacted the Russians, who had close relations with the Serbs. The Russians convinced these last ones to accept a truce. In exchange, the Russians expected to be treated as equal invaders of Serbia and Kosovo, imposing a ceasefire in all regions as equal to NATO.

But the Americans denied agreeing with the Russians. The Russians say they had no reason to negotiate with NATO except to recognise status as a major equal power. Russian troops arrived at Kosovo Airport to serve as peacekeepers.

They were surrounded by NATO troops and forced to leave. That event had a major impact on Vladimir Putin's rise in power and his distrust of the United States. Furthermore, she convinced him that the US wanted to completely destroy Russia, and he took over the presidency with the promise not to allow Russia to be treated with contempt in the future.

So Kosovars and Serbs are fighting for plates. And what would seem too insignificant to others is not insignificant in this region. In the Balkans, memories are long and unforgivable. And this region affects everything around it. World War I began right in Bosnia.

But for the time being, the end of Kosovo's war sparked a deep Russian distrust of the United States. Currently, there is a war involving Russia and the United States. So far she's not doing well for Moscow. When you wage a war, it is vital to force the enemy to shift his attention, especially when there is a quarrel in the field of battle.

The Russians have been looking for other ways to distract Ukrainians, but it's actually Americans who need to be distracted. Serbia is close to Russia, as it has been for a long time. The United States has a long history of engagement in the region.

Another conflict between Serbia and Kosovo would not automatically change the course of war in Ukraine, but with very little cost it could force Americans to lose some focus, if some of the forces were to be diverted to protect Kosovo, a kind of obligation that has its roots since the 1990s.

In any case, Russia has little to lose, and Serbia is always ready to clash with Kosovo. It all started with a minor collision on an extremely trivial issue. Therefore, the reason for gunfight has not been about trivial issues, but about trying to rekindle Kosovo's war.

If the Russians wanted a costly and low-risk deviation, they had too much incentive to contact Serbia. Of course there's been a crash before. But the question is not how they start but what they can cause. Therefore, much caution must be taken as to what recent events can produce on the Serbia-Kosovo border.

Note: George Friedman, is a geopolitical and strategist policy seer of international affairs. Founder and head of think-tank “Gepolical Futures”. / “World.al