“Putin can offer ceasefire after the capture of Donbas, that would put Zelensky in a difficult position”

“Putin can only offer a possible truce so that it can only be donated an opportunity to fortify the profits it has achieved so far”, said Victor Abramowitz, head of Ostoyla Consulting, which advises firms in the defence industry.

Putin congratulated his troops on “on the liberation of” of Luhansk, after weeks of fierce fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. A large number of local infrastructure, including residential buildings, have been destroyed.

Russian forces are now focused on the capture of the Donba region, with the province facing major promotions Sunday, according to local officials.

Hard choice for Zelensky

Even though the campaign has not gone according to Moscow's plan, Abramowitz said Russia “seems almost secure” which is able to achieve its limited targets in Donbas. If Putin then offered a ceasefire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be in a difficult position, Abramowitz said.

“There is no particular reason to believe that the acceptance of the Russian ceasefire would lead to a lasting peace”, he said, adding that this would enable Russia potential to fortify its troops and attack again in the future.

On the other hand, if Zelensky did not accept a ceasefire, it increases “the risk of losing Western support”, Abramowitz said, adding that the solution could be imposed on him by Western leaders.

And if Zelenksy would accept such a truce, it depends on what military and financial aid he feels could be accepted by the West, he added.

The Future of Western Support

He said there would be continued Western support for Ukraine for at least six months or even another year.

The medium-term elections in the United States, which is the country away with the largest financial and military support for Ukraine, would be significant for American support towards Ukraine, Abramowitz said.

“ /Periscopi/