SIPRI: The world is slipping toward a new era of danger

The report, titled “Peace Environment: Security in the new era of risks” provides some recommendations for lawmakers to overcome this period of instability.

The report shows in detail how environmental crises include climate change, massive disasters and lack of resources are interacting with the grim security horizon and other phenomena like the coronary pandemic.

More than 30 researchers from SIPRI and other institutions have contributed to this report, led by Margot Wallstrom, former Foreign Affairs Minister in Sweden and European Commissioner for Environment.

Complex Dangers

The report focuses on escalation of the security crisis.

The example is mentioned that in 2010-2020, the number of state armed conflicts has doubled (56), as has the number of deaths as a result of conflict.

The number of people forcibly expelled has also doubled to 82.4 million.

In 2020, the number of nuclear heads increased after several years in their reduction, and in 2021 the cost of the world's armies exceeded $2 trillion for the first time in history.

As for environmental crises, about a quarter of all living things are at risk of extinction, land quality is on the decline, and natural resources use is at unstable levels.

“Climate change is resulting in storm and heat waves, increasing the risk of large-scale harvest”.

Co-operation Is New Realisation

The last decade has been forwarded with increased geopolitical tensions, and those with cases have escalated even among major states, the report said.

According to him, population is on the rise.

Report designers believe co-operation is key to managing environmental and security crises.

No government can guarantee prosperity for citizens and security against global crises, without international co-operation”, said Helen Clark, former prime minister of New Zealand and member of the panel.

“actually, co-operation is new realism”.

Preparation for the Surprise

Coronervirus' uncertainty has highlighted the need for states to be prepared for situations with devastating potential.

For example, learning from experience with the outbreak of the SARS in 2002, South Korea has managed to have a mortality rate from COVID-19 to lower levels of nearly 10 percent compared with countries that have similar numbers of population over the first two years of pandemic.

In addition to preserving lives, these practices have enabled South Korea to manage the destabilisation of the economy and social impact, compared with non-accused states, despite World Health Organization warnings.

“Pandemia clearly tells us about the dangers posed when we decide not to prepare”, Margot Wallstrom said.

“Environmental and security crises worsen, governments need to assess related risks, develop their fighting capacities and make societies more flexible. The poorest countries need international support and must get it”.

The Importance of Peaceful Transitions

To combat climate change and other major environmental crises, governments worldwide must make major transitions to the energy sector and to land exploitation.

Maintaining the global temperature at 1.5 degrees Celsius, as the Paris Agreement on Climate envisions, implies a complete halt to carbon emissions within three decades.

In the field of biodiversity, governments are discussing initiatives like 30,50030, meaning protecting 30 percent of the world's land and oceans by 2030.

The SIPRI report says these transitions should be successful because failure carries huge costs.

Biofuels and hydroelectric dams have historically shown that they can exacerbate the security situation, as only hydropower plants have displaced about 80 million people from their homes.

“We must learn from past mistakes and not repeat it to a large extent”, said Geoff Dabelko, one of the authors of the report who also works as professor at Ohio University.

The Conservation must occur, but not by force. The transition to zero carbon emissions is a necessity, but it has to happen fairly. Fighting environmental crises should be open with justice, equality, human rights and peace creation, instead of destroying it”.

Fund Peace, Not Danger

Currently, governments spend an average of $5.7 trillion a year on activities that can harm nature, such as fossil material subsidization, inadequate fishing, and deforestation.

Governments have pledged to work in this direction, but something like that has not happened, the report said.

“If governments want to secure peace in the new era of danger, they must change the flow of finance from harmful activities”, the report's panelist, Arunabha Ghosh, said.