What role is the CIA playing in Ukraine?

In September 1949, two Ukrainian agents working for the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) landed near the town of Lviv in Ukraine, the then Soviet Union. The two agents conducted a secret operation aimed at establishing communication with the rebels who opposed Ukraine's annexation in the Soviet Union, and their number is estimated at tens of thousands.

Soviet intelligence managed to detect the operation, and at least three-quarters of the CIA operatives disappeared. By the mid - 1950 ' s, Moscow had completely crushed the Ukrainian uprising after moving and killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.

American historians considered CIA intervention at the time <x0fatal and tragic”, according to an internal audit conducted by the New York Times.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches the sixth week, some analysts remember the old financial intelligence, while others are enthusiastic about the CIA's success in its role in Ukraine this time.

Al Jazeera examined the opinions of three military and intelligence experts on the CIA's role in the actual fighting within Ukrainian territory, and their views were as follows:

It is currently a limited role

David Des Roches, a professor of security studies at the Pentagon's National Defence University and a former NATO official and the US Department of Defence, says the existence of American and European intelligence in Ukraine prior to the Russian attack was great and effective and how the CIA managed to determine the positions of Russian troops, their goals and plans of the movement.

According to Des Roches, the agency managed to issue timely reports of possible Russian movements. At the same time, however, the United States intelligence services and other NATO member states have failed to identify somewhat “the low state of” of the Russian armed forces, especially problems such as low morality, poor logistics and poor management of key troops.

These problems are of traditional nature. Intelligence agencies are generally good at identifying factors that can be measured objectively, but have a poor effect on measuring what is invulnerable, such as morality.

Des Roches believes the main role of American intelligence services in Ukraine has become currently limited and focuses on sharing his intelligence assessments with the Ukrainian side. The CIA also provides what it receives through its special surveillance devices and Russian forces' conversations. This allows Ukrainians to re-lock their troops in areas close to Russian forces and regulate their positions as needed.

They can also offer a large amount of tactical intelligence at the exact locations of Russian tanks to attack, causing more damage to Russian forces.

Decisive Intervention

Jeffrey Roggee, an assistant professor at the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies at the Citadel Military Academy in South Carolina, believes the work of American intelligence is one of the reasons Ukraine is able to resist Russia.

According to Rogge, the agency has invested in preparing Ukrainians for this war for years, but also with that training and all the weapons that the United States and other countries send to Ukraine, Ukrainians would not be nearly as effective without continued intelligence support.

Reports said the United States was offering key intelligence, such as signal intelligence analysis and photographs, which allowed Ukrainians to attack Russians when they were on the weaker side.

Roggee says Russia has lost a large number of generals, but that it is not only the fate or ability of Ukrainians, “for more, I think American intelligence has helped locate positions and carry out attacks on Russian top military officers”.

However, the security expert draws attention to the dangers that threaten the role of the American intelligence service in Ukraine and says: “it is no secret that the United States is arming Ukraine to kill the Russians, but it is almost certain Russia will use every opportunity for revenge. If Washington helps kill Russian generals, American generals may be targeted by Russia”.

Strengthening Ukraine's Resistance

According to Joseph Fitsanakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at the University of Coast Carolina, US assessments of Russia's military potential prior to Ukraine's invasion were largely accurate. American intelligence agencies, particularly the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), have created a relatively accurate mirror of the Russian military power potential.

In addition to analyzing the specific force, American intelligence services accurately interpreted Russia's intentions regarding Ukraine and played a central role since the launch of the Russian attack.

The expert believes Ukrainian special forces are responsible for the failures the Russian Army has suffered in recent weeks. They were able to repel a major Russian helicopter attack at Antonov Airport in Hostomel, northwest of Kiev. To counter this resistance, the Russians sent out 11th and 31st divisions of the National Guard air strike, but failed to take the airport.

In addition, he says that the CIA's detailed knowledge of Russian forces' military capabilities has enabled Washington and its NATO allies to offer Ukrainians the kind of weapons they need to fight advanced Russian armoured units, both in urban and periphery areas.

American expert believes weapons such as the Javelin (earth-air missiles) or antitank missiles have proved effective in preventing Russian forces from surrounding most of Ukraine's major cities. Intelligence operation aimed at supplying Ukrainians with such weapons was very successful, prompting Western allies to increase their production.