Serbia's EU barrier

“After April 3rd elections and the formation of a new parliamentary majority and a new government, Serbia's political leadership must be clear in its commitment to Serbia's strategic choice of Europe”, European Parliament rapporteur (PE) told Radio Free Europe Vladmir Billchi.

Billchik highlights this in his response to the question of whether to expect progress in the negotiations on Serbia's membership in the European Union (BE) this year.

During three weeks of Russian aggression against Ukraine, Serbia did not show its intention to harmonise with EU sanctions against Russia.

On March 15th, the EU imposed a fourth package of sanctions on Moscow, isolating Russia from the banking and trade sector, with the aim of halting suffering in Ukraine.

Immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Billchi expressed regret that Serbia did not join all EU sanctions against Vladimir Putin's regime, praising that Serbia's election would have broad political consequences.

Serbia's “position has already sparked a widespread debate in the European Parliament on its European perspective. I expect this issue also to play an important role in political debates on my report to Serbia in the European Parliament, later this spring”, Billchik stressed for Radio Free Europe.

As rapporteurs, Vdalmir Billchik presents a report on Serbia's progress in European integrations to the European Parliament.

Orders From Brussels to Belgrade

Since the beginning of Russian aggression, Brussels has several times ordered Belgrade that EU candidate countries are not expected to step aside when it comes to war in Ukraine.

Also, in statements by European officials it is stressed that the ranking on the wrong side of the conflict will have its own prize.

A day after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Serbia said it was wrong to violate Ukraine's territorial integrity and supported the UN resolution condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine.

But it is the only candidate country to join the EU and has not imposed sanctions on Russia, while it is almost the only country in Europe with such a decision.

Bodo Weber, expert for the Balkans and senior co-worker of the Council for Democracy Policy in Berlin, tells Radio Free Europe that Belgrade thinks it can continue to maintain the “position, including Russia and the EU”.

At this geopolitical moment, whether or not, Belgrade has spent its capital so it can be mined as by now”, he estimates.

Vuciqi politics both the EU and Russia

One of President Aleksandar Vucinic's explanations of why Serbia does not impose sanctions on Russia was that it would not rush towards hostilities because someone is asking for it. At the same time, Vucic underlined that Serbia is on the European road because it is its orientation.

Even before Russian aggression against Ukraine, Vucin had said Serbia had pro-European orientation, but also that it maintains good relations with the US, Russia and China.

Now officials in Belgrade say they cannot impose sanctions on Russia because of their vital economic and political interests. They also stress good <x0-traditional” relations between the two countries.

Apart from dependence on Russian energy sources, Serbia also estimates on Russia's political support for Kosovo, whose independence it does not recognise. At the same time, Serbia, under EU auspices, is negotiating with Kosovo for normalising relations, which would have to result in a legally binding agreement.

Weber estimates it will be extremely difficult to continue the landing policy on two chairs, especially once the April elections are through.

In Serbia, on April 3rd, presidential and early parliamentary elections are held.

Memorial of the Merkel-Tadiq situation

“This is certainly a crucial moment for his (Vuciqi) regime, he recalls changing the EU's political course towards Serbia in August 2011, when Angela Merkel banned the policy of Tadici's regime, as well as Kosovo and the EU, placing it in front of a” election, says Weber.

“Decision against The EU, as it is known, had a crucial impact on the fall of Tadicic's” regime, he adds.

In 2011, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Serbian President Boris Tadic in Belgrade, among other things, to abolish the parallel institutions (which functioned according to the Serbian system) in northern Kosovo, which he declined.

Tadic, who lost the elections in 2012, promoted policy “and the EU and Kosovo”.

After talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq in Belgrade on March 11th, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said those who share the European “values cannot stand aside when it comes to war in Ukraine”.

Bodo Weber points out that now is not 2014.

“With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused a unity so far unimaginable of both the EU and the West, the situation changed” overnight, says Bogo Weber.

Serbia did not join the sanctions the EU imposed on Russia in 2014, due to the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea Peninsula and support for pro-Russian separatist forces in the country's east of Donjeck and Luhansk.

Serbia also votes at the UN on Russia's side when it comes to resolutions condemning the Russian invasion of the Ukrainian Crimea Peninsula.

Belgrade Reserves About Russia

Even before the Russian occupation in Ukraine, the necessity of harmonising with EU foreign policy -- the union with sanctions against Russia, respectively -- was a necessary topic during the meeting of European officials with those in Belgrade.

“It would be good for Serbia to decide earlier, now the pressure is even stronger in this crisis situation”, Natasa Dragojlovovic, co-ordinator of the National Convention for the European Union, tells Radio Free Europe.

This civil society platform unites more than 750 organisations and provides organised support for Serbia's integration into the European Union.

The National Convention has repeatedly stressed, in its recommendations to the authorities, that Serbia must move more decisively towards harmonisation, regardless of the fact that it is not formally obliged to comply fully with EU foreign policy to membership”, Dragajlovic points out.

According to her, Serbia has increased the level of harmonisation with EU foreign policy decisions, but shows the only reserve for decisions dealing with Russia and Ukraine issues.

For the first time, Serbia respected the EU's decision on sanctions around Ukraine since March 13th, but those sanctions have nothing to do with Russia's aggression against this country.

In all, it is about expanding sanctions on former Ukrainian politicians, including pro-rus former president Viktor Yanukovych, due to misuse of state funds.

Earlier, in July 2021, Serbia partly agreed to sanctions the EU imposed on Belarus due to systematic human rights violations in that country.

In April 2021, Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, told then head of German diplomacy Heiko Mass, that Belgrade will see that on all issues, which do not directly endanger Serbian national and state interests, to achieve the largest possible harmonisation with EU countries.

Is the temporary suspension of negotiations possible?

The European Parliament's rapporteur for Serbia, Vdalmir Billchik, says existing instruments like accession negotiations, enlargement frames and enlargement-related financial instruments should be fully used to achieve positive incentives for pro-European Serbia, including its position on sanctions.

This is the approach I would support in the coming weeks and months to work on changing Serbia's position. We should use all existing tools towards possible positive developments in this issue, and not for suspension of”, Billchik says.

Earlier, the group of nine parliamentarians from the liberal political grouping in the European Parliament urged the European Commission to temporarily freeze accession talks with the Serbian government and deny financial support due to its failure to join sanctions against Russia.

Serbia is free to decide in which direction it wants to go, but cannot continue to be considered a reliable co-director and cannot continue to use pre-memberial financial assistance until it decides”, the parliamentary letter says.

Natasa Dragojlovic, from the National Convention, stresses that there is no formal basis for halting negotiations with Serbia and cutting off pre-member assistance, because besides the European Commission, this decision should support all member states as well.

“This is a signal that this can radicalise, but I don't believe it is possible to suspend negotiations with Serbia or suspend pre-accession aid”, says Dragjlovovic of the call that nine Euro-deputs have made.

It also estimates it is unrealistic to expect any sudden turn of Serbia's foreign policy or foreign trade in the election campaign.

“If Serbia were to make a slightly more radical turn of foreign policy, it is unrealistic to expect such a thing before May”, Dragojlovic believes.

According to public opinion polls, many people in Serbia see Russia as a protector and Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys great popularity.

According to a Belgrade-based nongovernmental Institute for European Affairs research published in July 2021, the largest number of citizens surveyed by Serbia, 83 percent, believe Russia is a friend of Serbia.

Research concerning the EU from the same organisation, in May 2021, has shown that for Serbia's EU membership 48.9 percent of respondents would vote, against 28.4 per cent, they would not vote 11.2 per cent of respondents, while 11.5 per cent do not know how they would vote.

How far has it come? Serbia in European integration?

Serbia began membership negotiations with the EU in 2014. Since then, 18 negotiating chapters have been opened, and two have been provisionally closed.

In February 2020, a new methodology was adopted, so 35 negotiating chapters were arranged in 6 groups.

So far, two groupings have been opened, 1 . Bases and 4-green Age and sustainable connection. / REL