CNN: Four weeks later the war in Ukraine is entering new, but more bleak

Almost a month after Russia began its invasion in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Army has changed significantly the way it reports on its successes. Instead of celebrating minor victories as resistance to Mariupoli in the south or retaking Makarivo near Kiev, these moments are seen as a new, darkest phase of war.

Due to the resistance that thwarted Russian Army plans, Russia is forced to change its tactics, CNN writes in its analysis.

Due to a lack of success in the ground phase of the military operation, the enemy continues with missile attacks and air strikes aimed at major military and civilian infrastructure. He uses aircraft, high precision rockets and a large quantity of” ammunition, the Ukraine General Staff statement said on Tuesday.

We already have many examples showing that the Russians are slowly changing their approach, so unlike the beginning of the invasion, they keep their forces at a somewhat safer distance while targeting missiles issued by countries outside Ukraine's airspace.

A statement issued by Russia's Defence Ministry on Sunday said the Caliber cruise missiles were launched by Russian ships at the Caspian Sea towards Ukraine, while the hypersonic Kzhal missiles were launched by a plane in airspace on the Crimean Peninsula, which is controlled by Russia. The missile targets were, as the Russians say, a large fuel depot and lubricants for the Ukrainian Army near the town of Costiantynivka in the southern part of the northern province of Mykolaiv.

In a second statement, the Russian Army confirmed that the Caliber missiles were fired from the Black Sea and that their target was a factory to repair Ukraine's armoured vehicles. Russian missiles with high precision also targeted what Russia described as a Ukrainian training centre near Ovuch, in the northern province of Zytomyr.

Much of the reason for the use of such expensive missile systems is certainly RPR Russia would be happy to export a similar version of the Caliber system to other countries, and Knizhal claims it is the last word in technology, since it can penetrate any missile shield in the world.

However, the British Defence Ministry rejected Russia's claims of fire baptism of the Knizhal system, saying its use “would most likely draw attention to the fact that Russia's land military campaign is not progressing. The use of Kzhal is unlikely to significantly impact the outcome of the Russian campaign in Ukraine.

Russia has not conquered a large city

Such assessments, however, are a little comforting to any who find themselves targeted by Russian fire. Tens of soldiers were killed in a missile attack on a barracks in Mykolayiv on Friday, and Russian long-range missiles hit several targets outside the battlefield -- 35 people were killed in attacks on March 13th on a Yavoroviv military training ground in the western Lviv. On that occasion, more than 30 rockets released by planes flying over the Black Sea and the Azov Sea hit the target.

Russia has so far failed to invade any large Ukrainian city, either Kharkiv in the northeast or Odessa in the southwest. Even the northern cities of Summy and Chernivtsi both near the border with Russia and the area from which Russian forces occupied ʹ are still under Ukraine's control. And in Kherson, a middle city in the south of the country that is under Russian control, the Russian Army has faced a new problem, as angry residents gather every day in the main square of the city and cheer Russian soldiers to go home. One of those gatherings ended Monday after Russian soldiers were forced to fire and shocking bombs in which one ended up with serious wounds.

Military analysts are currently concerned about another consequence of this new war phase because of the weakening progress of the Russian Land Forces, their commanders are increasingly using brutal and random fires in the cities of Ukraine.

“If the battlefield in Ukraine turns into a deadlock, Russian forces will continue to bomb Ukrainian cities, destroying and killing civilians despite Ukrainian forces causing defeat to Russian invaders and launch counterattacks on Russian positions”, it is said in analysis published on March 19th by the American Institute for War Research (ISW).

Dark Forecast

Russians may hope it will damage Ukrainian morality and their determination to continue the war under such circumstances, because in this way the Russians demonstrate Kiev's inability to fully suppress Russian forces or stop their long-range attack, despite the fact that Russians are clearly unable to invade Ukrainian cities. Therefore, Ukraine's victory in the initial phase of the Russian occupation could set conditions on the ground that would lead to a devastating duration of conflict and a very dangerous new period in war, in which Ukraine and the West will be brought to extremes, writes CNN.

Ukrainian officials began warning of the possible opening of a new battlefield. Ukraine's General Staff said yesterday that the threat of an attack by Belarus in northwest Ukraine was “high” with no explanation.

The Volyn region of northwest Ukraine borders Belarus in the north and Poland, a NATO member in the West. In theory, the area can serve attackers from the north to approach Lviv, a strategic city in western Ukraine that serves as a major logistical centre for the Ukrainian government, but also for humanitarian aid arriving in the country. It is also a major transit point for civilians fleeing violence from other parts of the country.

Russia has already used Belarus's territory as a springboard for the invasion, as it was from southern Belarus that Russian forces launched an attack towards Kiev and central Ukraine. It is difficult to say whether Belarus would actively engage in war in such a scenario. But Ukraine's General Staff has already voiced fears that Russia is currently bringing reserve troops to the Ukrainian border.

If this turns out to be true, a lot can be extracted from it. On the one hand, this speaks of the high price the Russian Army has already paid for the invasion in terms of the victims, though Moscow has not officially announced a new number of deaths in Ukraine since 2 March, when it admitted only 498 people dead in its ranks. But it also speaks of a man's political will, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, to continue paying a huge price in terms of human lives and the cost of war in Ukraine.