6 hours agoNY Times: Ukraine is just a small part of Putin's plan, that's what awaits the West.
Periskopi(4 years ago)
(4 years ago)We knew we'd get into a situation like this one day. “George, you need to understand that Ukraine is not really a state. Part of its territory is located in Eastern Europe, and most of it has been given to us”. These were President Vladimir Putin's ominous words in [...]
Putin was obviously angry: NATO had just announced that Ukraine and Georgia would join the alliance one day. It was a compromise formula to ease the concerns of our European allies - a clear promise to join the bloc, but not a specific deadline for when this act will take place.
At the time, I was a secret service officer for Russia and Eurasia, as well as part of a team that regularly informed Mr. Bush. We warned the president that Mr. Putin would consider steps to draw closer to him NATO and Ukraine as a provocative movement, likely to provoke a pre-emptive military action on Russia's part.
In the end, though, our warnings were not taken into account. Within four months, in August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia. And Ukraine received Russia's message in a loud and clear voice. That attack delayed NATO membership over the years that followed.
But in 2014, Ukraine wanted to sign an association agreement with the European Union, thinking that this could be a safer way to meet the West. Moscow struck again, accusing Ukraine of seeking a back door to become part of NATO.
It annexed the Crimean Peninsula and launched a long war through pro-Russian separatists in the southeastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. The West's poor responses to the 2008 and 2014 conquests braved Putin not least.
And this time, its goal is bigger than just closing NATO's “open” against Ukraine, and the embezzlement of more territories. Now he wants to expel the United States from Europe. As Crenlin's leader might say: “Goodbye America! Don't hit the door on the way out!
As I have seen for more than two decades, the time in which I have observed and analysed Putin's movements, his actions are deliberate, and his choice at this moment to attack Ukraine and blackmail Europe is very deliberate. He has a personal obsession with history and anniversary.
December 2021 marked the 30th anniversary of the breakup of the Soviet Union when Russia lost its dominant position in Europe. Putin wants to cause the United States the same bitter taste Russia tasted during the 1990s.
He believes that the United States is currently mired in the same troubles as Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union: greatly weakened from the inside and in retreat to the global arena. He also thinks NATO is nothing but a US extension.
Russian officials and analysts constantly deny any independent strategic agency or opinion on other NATO members. So when it comes to this one, all Moscow movements are directed against Washington.
During the 1990s, the United States and NATO forced Russia to withdraw what was left of the Soviet Army from their bases in Eastern Europe, Germany and the Baltic states. Putin now wants the United States to suffer in a similar way.
From Russia's point of view, the inner suffering of America after four years of President Donald Trump's catastrophic presidency, as well as the divisions that he created with US allies, and then America's rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan signal the latter's weakness.
If Russia exercises sufficient pressure, Vladimir Putin hopes it can reach a new security agreement with NATO and Europe to avoid an endless conflict, and then it will be America's turn to leave the European continent, taking with it its troops and missiles.
Ukraine is also a target of Russia but also a source of pressure against the United States. Over the past few months, Putin has pulled the Beden administration into endless tactical games, which place the US in protective positions.
Russia transfers forces to Ukrainian borders, launches military exercises and strengthens aggressive rhetoric within the country. In the latest official documents presented to Washington, it demanded strong guarantees that Ukraine (and other former republics of the USSR) will never become NATO members, for NATO to withdraw from the positions it has taken after 1997, and for America to withdraw its forces and weapons, including nuclear missiles.
Russian representatives say Moscow “does not need a peace at any cost” in Europe. Some Russian politicians even suggest the possibility of a preemptive attack on NATO targets, to ensure that the West knows Moscow's demands are serious and that they must be met.
For weeks, American officials have tried to understand Russia's demands and its contradictory comments, and find a way to prevent Putin from going to Ukraine. Meanwhile, all the time, Putin and his representatives have strengthened their statements.
Kremlin officials have challenged not only the legitimacy of the US position in Europe, but have raised questions about America's bases in Japan and its role in the Asia-Peacework region. They have also said that they can send hypersonic missiles to Cuba and Venezuela to revive what the Russians call “Caribbean crisis” 1960s.
Putin is a master of such blackmail. He produces a crisis in such a way that he can afford to win, no matter who he faces. Threats and promises are basically the same. Putin can invade Ukraine again, or leave things where they are, and consolidate control of the territory he currently controls in Crime and Donba.
It could cause problems in Japan, and send either hypersonic missiles to Cuba and Venezuela, or not do so if things in Europe go smoothly. Putin plays a longer, strategic game, and somehow dominates tactical clashes.
For now, all signs show Putin will draw the US into an endless tactical game, take more territories from Ukraine, and exploit all friction and divisions within NATO and the European Union. Getting out of the current crisis requires action, not reaction.
The United States must dictate diplomatic responses, and engage it with Russia according to Western conditions, and not just Moscow. Washington must show Putin that he will face global resistance, and that his aggression will jeopardise Russia's political and economic relations across Europe.
Forming a united front with its European allies and gathering broader support should be America's longest game. Otherwise, it can truly mark the beginning of the end of America's military presence in Europe.
