North, tension with lots of calculations

German analyst for the Balkans Johhana Deimel tells Radio Free Europe that provocations in the north are interconnected in several ways. Initially, according to her, it is about elections in Kosovo local elections in October and Serbia's presidential election in April 2022.

“Both sides, Vetevendosje of (Kosovo prime minister) Albin Kurti and Serbia's (President of Serbia) Serbian Progressive Party, Aleksandar Vuciq, need populist discours, to draw attention to other problems in their countries of”, says Deimel, under which the whole situation is also the result of a weak European Union, the lack of a reliable prospect of membership for these countries, as well as in recent times due to the vacuum of power in Germany, after the election ends there.

Tensions in northern Kosovo have increased since September 20th, when the Kosovo government imposed the reciprocity measure for plates from Serbia. The move is being rejected by Serbian citizens, who have blocked roads leading to the Jarinje and Brnjak border points. Kosovo has placed special police units near these two points, while Serbia has increased military presence in the border area. On 26 September, Serbian military units in Rashka, located near the Kosovo border, visited Russian Ambassador to Belgrade Aleksandar Bocan-Kharchenko, Serbia's Defence Ministry has announced.

The Russian ambassador was also at the border. His presence marks Russia's role in supporting Serbia, and this then sends a clear signal to the region”, Demiel says, adding that it is time for the international community to send a clear message to Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq.

In my opinion, Vuciq is using the moment and testing the terrain. The Time of Angela Merkel (v.j. The German outgoing Chancellor has finished, France will hold elections in the spring of 2022, and thus, the EU is in a critical phase where new formations and power centres can arise. In this case, this vacuum of power is being exploited by Vucinqi. The nationalist ghosts of the 1990s are coming out again. Angela Merkel has so far prevented a territorial exchange (v.j. Between Kosovo and Serbia ). Vuciba may count on turning this issue into the international table through artificial escalation”, adds analyst Demiel.

The United States, the European Union and NATO have called on Kosovo and Serbia to reduce tensions and return to dialogue.

From diplomatic sources in Brussels, Radio Free Europe learns that this week, in Brussels a meeting can be held between the chiefs of Kosovo and Serbia's negotiating teams.

Leaders from both countries even on the eighth day of tensions have shown no signs of withdrawal from their political rhetoric.

Earlier, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti has said the two countries must remove temporary plates, while on Monday (September 27th) after a meeting with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has argued the presence of special units at border crossings.

The Special Unit of the Kosovo Police is not there to demonstrate a force, but to protect our border checkpoints and border police”, he said.

On the other hand, Serbia's prime minister, Anna Brnabiq, said the European Union, at the moment, “is not doing anything, or doing a little” about the situation in Kosovo.

I have nothing good to say about bringing Europe, about bringing the EU. I think the Brussels Agreement is an EU issue. Its signature is in the Brussels Agreement”, Brnabiq told Serbian television Pink.

Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyeen starts his tour of the Western Balkans on Tuesday and 29 September, it will stay in Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia, while a day later in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

This visit, according to analyst Demiel, should be used by late der Leyeen to exert pressure on Vuciqi.

It comes from a party family (v.j. The European People's Party in the European Parliament has been supporting Vucinqi very long. It can use as a tool, public criticism on its part, and the European Council, and perhaps even consider freezing finances. And if there isn't a drop in tensions soon, the United States may think as a measure, travel bans for politicians and people of corrupt business from Kosovo and Serbia”, Demiel says.

On Saturday, September 25th, two incidents have been marked in two municipalities in northern Kosovo. In Zubin Potok the Centre for Autobill Recording has been burned, the Zvecan Centre for Civil Recording has already been attacked. Kosovo has blamed Serbia for standing behind these two incidents.

Lacking Political Will for Agreement

The license issue is regulated by Brussels' Free Movement Agreement, within the framework of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, where all owners of cars living in Kosovo are to use license plates KSH (Kosovo) or ʹ RKS) (Republishment of Kosovo) and thus remove plates that for Kosovo Serbs issued to Serbia's Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia on normalisation of relations started in 2011 at the technical level, while in 2012 it moved to a higher level of political level.

About 30 agreements have been reached so far, but many do not apply on the ground.

The goal is to reach a comprehensive agreement between the two countries, but according to James Ker-Landsey, professor at London's School of Economics and Political Science, the last situation in the north shows how far the parties are from reaching a final political agreement.

A member of Kosovo Police Special Units walks close to some Serbs, who are protesting in Jarinje on 26 September.

According to him, in Pristina a government is in power in Pristina that has no will to engage in high-level political dialogue, while in Serbia, reaching an agreement has been more likely a decade ago than now when things have gone getting more difficult.

He estimates that the last situation in the north is disturbing and that the past has shown that these kinds of situations can be out of control very soon.

So in general this moment is not good, and I think many people and many countries are very concerned with what we're seeing at”, he says.