Go Green, come Escobar: Who is the new Prophet of America to the Balkans who knows us well

The growing American influence in the Balkans is being talked about, after the recent American elections. If this were to result in the dismissal of previous envoy Matthew Palmer, he'll be seen after Escobar's first moves.

The Unique Politics

The Exchange of Palmer meant that the new administration wants to change the current approach to the region. So they bring to this post a man who will impartially implement the policy of the new administration. But this will be seen very soon”, says the organisation's director, the Centre for Regionalism, Aleksandar Popov.

He adds that regardless of the person, the unified American policy should be clearly seen. So far, we have had a connection of actions between international representatives of those from the EU and the US.

We will see how things will develop in the future, but many believe there will be no major changes in policy towards the region. Politics towards Western Balkan countries will be the same as in the last ten years.

It may even have a smaller impact when we consider developments in Afghanistan, where the attention of American authorities is focused.

The key “problem will remain reports between Belgrade and Pristina and some kind of mediation in this process. Because of the situation with Afghanistan, the international community's focus has shifted from the Western Balkans and it would be good for us to understand that the world is surrounding us”, says Tanja Topic, political analyst from Banja Luka. She also sees a kind of connection between decisions on the name of Escobar and the new High Representative in BiH, Christian Schmidt.

Schmidt and Escobar Interaction

I expect more pressure from the United States of America, which views B-H as their child. The US has already taken concrete measures against some politicians in the form of sanctions (such as Milorad Dodik).

It seems to me that Schmidt and Escobar's arrival implies a more co-ordinated co-operation and progress in the Western Balkans processes,” said Topic. At the moment, we have a situation when local politicians in this country are expecting help from abroad, rather than being interested in any decision or solution of themselves.

Escobar on one of his missions in the Balkans has also been head of cabinet at the Office of the High Representative in Banja Luka and chief of the American Embassy Office in this city.

Some media in B-H reported in recent days that Escobari “has been very active in choosing Milorad Dodik as Republika Srpska president in 2010”, though others suspect the commitment. But that does not mean that such a thing did not exist years ago, because then a new “breath of” was required in the Balkans, Popov says.

Experienced diplomas

“Escobar well knows the entire Balkans and has much experience. As for Dodik and the American hope that through him they will oppose nationalist leaders, he is now under US sanctions, which will say he can in no way influence the American decision”, says Popov.

He thinks the US administration can have concrete goals when it comes to relations between Belgrade and Pristina, but also relations in B-H.

But all agree that America will be present in the Balkans as EU support, without imposing any solution. Escobar predecessor Matthew Palmer, has recently declared that the EU is the one leading negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, while the ultimate goal of America is mutual recognition.

But Palmer said America will not intervene in decisions and that the US agrees to implement the agreed agreements.

America will come from the rear, Europe is here number one. America wants to restore co-operation with the EU and will have more of the role of sponsor and not the key factor, which has the key words”, says Ivan Vujaciq, former ambassador of Serbia to the US.

Montenegro as greatest ally

Analysts agree that Escobar, thanks to his experience in B-H, Montenegro and Serbia, will be able to contribute to reaching agreements, which could finally be realised in practice. This has to do in the first place with negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, but perhaps even with reaching any new agreement in BiH.

As for Montenegro, Palmer has praised it during his last visit in July, the commitment of new Montenegrin Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokkapiq and has called for Montenegro not to waver on its Euro-Atlantic path.

Then it was said that the United States of “praises Montenegro's contribution to developing regional stability and peace in the Western Balkans”. But in the focus of this country, fighting corruption and organised crime must remain the two main requirements for Montenegro's accession to the European Union.

DW