Four scenarios of how the vivid virus will develop

The showing of new variants changes the way a virus spread, making it more challenging, as we have seen in SARS-COV-2's version Delta. According to experts, there are exactly the variants of the coronavirus, which are the major special surveillance of the moment, as the arrival of a very resistant version of vaccines is a “real possibility”.

A study presented by the United Kingdom Scientific Consultative Group for Emergencys (SAGE) warns virus mutations and outlines four possible future scenarios.
The first scenario is the one who sees the appearance of a highly deadly new version, which kills between 10% and 35% of the infected, thus reaching the MERCS levels (which killed one in three infected), but, unlike this one, capable of combining high mortality with the high contagiousness that Ovid has already shown.

For the second scenario, the authors speculate on the birth of a variant capable of avoiding the immunity of the vaccine (such as the case of Epsilon, identified for the first time in California), making us return a year back to the history of pandemic, when no one had been vaccinated.

A third hypothesis sees the development of a resistant alternative to antiviral drugs, which the authors of the study recommend carefully manage to maintain the development of drug resistance.

And finally, the fourth scenario, the only positive one for us, sees the virus becoming less efficient and more like one of the four coronarys we've been living with for years, like the flu.

The report points to the possibility that the characteristics of two aggressive Alfa and beta are combined to create a third, more efficient, and even more lethal variant. The possibility of this happening is high, at least as long as the virus continues to circulate and find the successful “formula” to adapt better to us.

According to Marc Baguel from Imperial College London: “it is unlikely that a new virus could completely bypass any kind of immunity, given by overcoming the disease or by vaccine”. According to the expert, a minimum of immunity should remain, at least against the most severe forms of the disease: “But we're going to have to update the actual vaccines, including developing variants”.

The fourth scenario, the surest one, is determined by SAGE as the impossible “in the short but really possible in the long-term”. If the virus changes into a less lethal and contagious form, it will take several years, or even decades, for that to happen. For the coming months, it is better to focus on the massive inoculation of as many citizens as possible and to continue researching to adapt vaccines, based on the new variants we are seeing and continuing to emerge.