Risk of Tensions in Montenegro

Recent months' tensions in Montenegro can be extremely dangerous, while incidents with political and nationalist motives are deeply disturbing, says Kurt Bassuener, by the international organisation Council for Democratic Policy.

Judy Dempsey, from the Carnegie Europe Centre, says tensions and current incidents in Montenegro can turn this country back on the road to the European Union, which Russia, “via the governing structure in Montenegro, will exploit”.

Tensions in Montenegro have intensified since the August parliamentary elections, with which, after three decades, power has changed.

The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the pro-Montenegrin parties have replaced a coalition led by the pro-Serbian Democratic Front, in which Democrats and the civic movement are made up of URA.

Minorities have been and remain with DPS for years.

Now, the problem exists even among the majority controlling the government and parliament and the president of state, Milo Djukanovic, who is also leader of the state. DPS.

The increased tensions among pro-Montenegrin opposition supporters led by DPS, and supporters of the pro-Serbian Democratic Front have consistently resulted in conflicts, attacks on religious buildings, threatening messages to minorities, protests and attacks on journalists.

Dempsey tells Radio Free Europe that the international community, especially NATO, should be more active with appeals, noting how necessary stability is in Montenegro.

There is no time for NATO or the European Union indifference. They should be actively involved. What is happening in Montenegro can spread to the rest of the region as well. Russia and China would benefit and encourage this” development.

In view of the history of Russian intervention in the region, one of its goals is to create ethnic and religious tensions. When they escalate, it's hard to stop. This is a big risk”, Dempsey says.

According to her, this would mean open confessions to potentially dangerous situations.

Dempsey says that both organizations, NATO and the EU must appoint special envoys to Montenegro, who would intercede.

Bassuener considers that the European Union, the United States and NATO have the responsibility to help resolve tensions and incidents in Montenegro.

He says no one needs conflict in the Western Balkans anymore.

According to Dempseyt, the EU is not particularly good at crisis management.

“The EU, if it is serious about Montenegro's integration, must be more loud and practical. I have to invest in infrastructure, in education, in the media. Above all, civil society should be encouraged at local level”.

“Russia will continue to use current political structures to divert Montenegro's path towards the EU. As for NATO, it should be more active on the ground, through training, communication and closer involvement in civil institutions and society”, Dempsey says.

Bassuener says the discontent of Montenegrin citizens with the sense of social injustice and widespread corruption has resulted in the election defeat of the pro-Western coalition, led by Djukanovic's DPS, in August 2020.

He says the Montenegrin government, led by DPS, has been mired politically for years.

The disgruntled citizens have protested, called attention to the system's shortcomings, which, on one hand, have also led to power change. On the other hand, I think that those who have wanted power change have downplayed the possible negative side, how quickly the political focus can be shifted, and things have gone in a sudden and undesirable direction”, Bassuener says.

According to him, although it has seemed that most citizens in Montenegro support Montenegrin citizenship, identity and multiethnicity, such things are not yet rooted as local and foreign observers have believed.

All of this can also be added to the regional context: feeling as if there are no rules, then geopolitical challenges, the inefficiency and inaction of Western countries, the resurface of programmes from the 1990s and Serbia's intervention. The current situation in Montenegro enters this frame”, Bassuener says.

Montenegro started negotiations on EU membership in 2012, while it became a NATO member in 2017.

Bassuener says he is not surprised that a NATO member country, which is also on its way to the EU, faces nationalist tensions in society.

The “Negation on the road to the EU is not precedent. Part of the problem is that both the EU and NATO have given priority to relations with former heads of states, in the face of what really needs to be assessed, when it comes to progress towards integration. Leaders of all Western Balkan states, including, of course, Montenegro, have exploited this concession. Developments in Montenegro show that nothing can happen automatically when it comes to progress”, Bassuener says.

According to him, democratic consolidation in the Western Balkans has paid little attention.

Bassuener says the international community has allowed the governments of the region to lead politics as they wish, without knowing that NATO and the EU have legal but moral responsibilities, to ensure that there are no violent conflicts or aspirations for changing borders.

The Slovenian “Noon-Paper, regardless of where it came from, shows there are still doubts about the current borders and state sovereignty. The same programs were there 15 years ago. They're like herpes infection shows up when immunity is weak”, Bassuener says.

Asked how the international community could help prevent conflicts and reduce tensions, Bassuener says it should suggest that conflicts, violence or border change efforts will not be allowed.

This, earlier, is taken as good. China and Russia have nothing to do with current developments (even though they benefit from them). But, the fact that we have left these issues open for a long time, more than a decade, indicates inconsistencies”, Bassuener says.