Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine?

Russia's goals are not clear.

Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine?

Numerous sources have reported major Russian military movements towards Ukraine's eastern border and the Crimea.

Many of these reports have appeared on Twitter, such as posting an intelligence analyst that they are short-range missiles Iskander.

The Kremlin has provided no details about the units involved. President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that “The movement of troops across Russian territory was a “internal issue” which should not bother anyone. ”

Some of the troops, including the Crime unit, have been in training.

But Mr. Peskov also accused Ukraine of organising “provocations”.

Ukrainian intelligence sources told the BBC that additional forces comprise 16 tactical battalion groups, which have up to 14,000 soldiers. In total, according to the Ukrainian presidency, Russia now has about 40,000 troops on the eastern border and about 40,000 in the Crimea.

So is this a force of conquest?

It may be, but analysts say a major invasion is unlikely. Infiling would be Russia's most proven and reliable method. Russian Special Forces saw signs naming “little green men” took the Crimea in 2014.

Ukraine, NATO and Western governments say Russia also has regular units and heavy weapons in eastern Ukraine controlled by separatists. The Kremlin denies it and calls every Russian body there <x0volent). ”

Why is Russia at war with Ukraine?

Since the collapse of communism in 1991, Russian troops have intervened in conflicts in several areas of the former Soviet Union, especially in Chechnya and other parts of the Caucasus.

In April 2014, shortly after Russia's prosecution of Crime, pro-Russian separatists seized a large part of East Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Known as Donbas, the conflict zone is mostly Russian-speaking, and many now have Russian passports. President Putin says Russia will protect Russian citizens abroad if it is seen to be in danger.

Russian-Ukrainian relations are certainly hostile now, but it is not a comprehensive war. There's sporadical collisions on the front line of Donba.

More than 13,000 people died in the conflict. Ukraine says 26 of its soldiers have died in Donba so far, compared to 50 throughout 2020. Separatists say more than 20 of them died this year.

Is Ukraine protected by NATO?

Ukraine is not a NATO member and is not protected by the treaty.

But NATO has close ties to Ukraine, which has taken Western weapons, including US anti-tank missiles Yavelin. So Russia knows it risks provoking more Western military aid to Ukraine.

President Zelensky has asked NATO speeds up Ukraine's membership; but conflict makes it difficult for NATO to accept Ukraine under the current terms of the 30-nation alliance.