Timothy Les: Kosovo's union with Albania, only geopolitical option now

As Less stressed in his text at the Open Democracy portal, “a kind of Kosovo attachment to Albania is now the only geopolitical option”. This scenario was preceded by the aspiring invisibility that Kosovo would achieve accession from Serbia, 13 years after unilateral declaration of independence”.

“The demand for independence has met with continuing resistance to Belgrade, which opposes the loss of Kosovo, due to the emotional connection of their nation's cradle, as they see, that the West illegally confiscated. ”

For things to be complicated, Kosovo Albanians have refused to make significant concessions to Serbia, which in exchange for receiving admission, as they believe Serbia has a moral obligation to accept Kosovo's independence unconditionally, because they tried to ethnically clean that territory in 1999, with which many Western governments --” agree.

He went on to remember that the European Union in 2011 “opened the dialogue” between Belgrade and Pristina, to normalise relations, but this initiative did not produce results, “” because Serbia continued to oppose Kosovo's accession”.

European leaders tried to set “affix1> Serbia, with the prospect of EU membership “if it surrenders this territory”, as well as the threat that “will not be a member” if it doesn't, “por turned out this incentive was not adequate”.

“While Serbs refused to accept Kosovo's independence as a result, Albanians refused to seriously negotiate with Serbs for whatever else. In the United States, angry politicians were looking at the EU's failure to live Kosovo's independence... Not only did the impasse in the negotiations prevent Washington from integrating Serbia and Kosovo into the western buffer, but the Trump administration began secret negotiations with the presidents of Kosovo and Serbia, Hashim Thaci and Aleksandar Vucin, who were focusing on the issue that Vuc needs to sell the agreement for Kosovo's independence to the Serbian people. Reports appeared in 2018, showed that Vucic sought the north of Kosovo, where Serbs are majority populations, and a clear perspective of Serbia in the EU. That was enough for Thaci, who acknowledged the loss of the north, that Pristina also does not fully control... with Serbia's accession gains, Kosovo would be allowed legalisation of its independence, the uncertainty about its future would be completed, the Trump administration would join the institution of both the UN, the EU and NATO, and start political and economic development... When the two presidents agreed to act on the basis of those foundations, the Trump administration would also agree to<1>

The text mentions that the idea of partitioning Kosovo failed due to the rejection of the “foreign world, respectively, in Kosovo the majority of voters “opposed the sacrifice of territory, in exchange for which they would gain something which Serebia is obliged to give unconditionally to”, and the same position was also the hsumica of politicians, the reason for which Thaci was marginalised, until the government, led by Haradinaj, “took control over Kosovo's relations with the Belgrade placed on Serbian imports at<5>

“On the international level, Germany also rejected the view of partition, fearing that it would create destabilising precedents for fragile states -- Bosnia and Macedonia's north -- as a result of the principled disagreement of setting borders on ethnic lines. This had two basic effects: Kosovo Albanians realised that there is no international consensus on the issue of partition, and Vucic's remained without territorial compensation, and all he could offer the Serbian public was the European perspective in the EU, in exchange for Kosovo's surrender. It would be sufficient to eliminate all possibilities for reaching agreement ... Yet in 2019 France and other states, practically, put the mortorium in any possible EU enlargement, which prevented Serbia's likelihood of climbing. Emannuel Macron carried the order to Belgrade during a June 201950 visit, which the EU cannot further expand without internal institutional reforms, and in December suspended opening negotiations chapters”, Less stressed.

He also described the Trump administration's commitment to Kosovo's problem, Les mentioned that in May of last year, when presidential elections were approaching, “The US decided to make the latest effort to reach the agreement, so that they ousted the government in Kosovo, installed the most humble partner and resumed dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. ”

However, seeing that the idea of partition was no longer on the table, and the enlargement of the EU was suspended, and Serbia had no apparent reason to accept Kosovo, there was no possibility of reaching agreement for accession. This was made clear when Serbia and Kosovo signed the agreement at the White House in September, which, although it had appeared to be pompous, consisted of only some provisions for cross-border communication, but without agreement on Serbia's accession. At the end of that, Vucic said he would not accept the independence of that territory until he is president, welcomed as a stand by the majority in Serbia, who want the Kosovo issue to remain frozen” explains Les.

In Timothy Les's opinion, Kosovo today has only two strategic options. The first is to maintain the status quo, in hopes that in the end, something will happen to persuade Serbia to change its mind, “as if there might be serious American sanctions for Belgrade. ”

However, it is not real to expect that the US will use that kind of pressure, and until Kosovo status is unclear, it will not be able to develop either politically or economically. ”

The second scenario, according to the English researcher, “is a kind of union with neighbouring Albania...with which not only to consolidate Ksoova's division with Serbia but to ensure Albanian protection, and Kosovo would ensure exits to the outside world”.

Les cites that the idea “for the national union of Albanians” does not present innovation, as there is enormous support among people in Albania and Kosovo to discuss it as part of an Albanian nation.

He stressed that the union between Kosovo and Albania is becoming as inevitable as possible, if the fact is taken into account that Kosovo “cannot secure admission on the part of Serbia” , the “Albania's desire for EU membership is virtually over, until France and other states will resist further enlargement of”.

Les points out that the goal of making Greater Albania would be faced with a serious obstacle -- Serbia would oppose it. Major popular pressure in Serbia would force him to intervene even with the military, which is supported by half the public opinion in Serbia. Les points out that this is unlikely that events will flow in this direction. Serbia's “leaders do not want confrontation with Albania in Kosovo given the risk that Americans would be involved on the Albanian side... and neither will Albania face Serbia in war, a now very powerful rival... Kosovo will most likely gradually integrate with Albania, in the economic and political context of the coming years, and Serbia will be forced to save it, which falls back on the strategy from the era of Trump” said Les.

As it further explains, this means that Serbia will try to return control over Kosovo's north, with Albania's consent.