Ukraine cannot withstand a Russian invasion

It was a large-scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine, involving about 130,000 military personnel, mainly from 20 and eight combined military units.

Paraschus from the 76th and 96th air force divisions crossed the Ukrainian border from the north and headed toward Kharkivi. From the southeast, air strikes divisions, including seven and 106, moved to take control of regions, which were only partially occupied, in Donnetsk and Luhansk, and then moved from west to the outskirts of Dnipros, another large town. Smaller units, special operations, known as the Spatsnaza, were also deployed.

All railway checkpoints leading to the Ukrainian borders were filled with military personnel, but however, the advance units moved along with regiments of thousands of troops over the next ten days.

Purpose? Taking control of parts of Ukraine to include them in the Russian state.

This scenario, published more than 18 months ago, was part of a military training conducted by Rand Corporation, an American institute. Although it is not a comprehensive analysis, it provides a photograph of Russia's military capabilities east of Ukraine, where, in reality, across the border, up to 175,000 Russian troops can accumulate in the coming weeks.

While the Rand Corporation report and recent military analysis have analysed all Russian operational tactics, very few have looked at the other side of the medal: How long can the Ukrainian Armed Forces stand against a large military and powerful force like Russia's?

“Russia will face a staunch, powerful and stable army for whatever Putin chooses to do”, said Glen Grant, a retired British military man who has also served as a Ukrainian army adviser.

The threat has been present for eight years. We haven't ruled it out since 2014. This is war, this is Russia. From Russia we should expect to seize any opportunity, at any moment”, General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, commander of Joint Operational Forces fighting with separatists, told Ukrainian Radio Europe.

In eastern Ukraine, war erupted in the Donba region in April 2014, just months after mass protests in Kiev. Protests led to the collapse of the Ukrainian president, close to Moscow, who fled to Russia.

In the following months, “Anti-terrorism operation” A mixture of government troops and volunteer militias, often privately funded, reaped the first successes against separatist forces supported by Russia.

Later in the summer of 2014, however, Russia increased the delocation of military intelligence and even regular troops, which led to several major defeats for Ukrainian forces, including the loss of control of the city of Ilovaisk in August.

These losses highlighted the weakness of Ukraine's military, which for years had not been adequately financed and described with corruption. Problems included outdated equipment, new military equipment sold for bribery, low wages for officers who, because of economic conditions, made other businesses, vehicles, and helicopters without fuel or equipment. Ukrainian children had even sold stuff to raise money for soldiers.

Our military has been systematically destroyed and disarmed, and the best personnel have been fired from work”, Deputy Defence Minister Petro Mehed had declared to the media in April 2014.

Since then, the Ukrainian Army has improved even though experts disagree on how deep military reforms are and could have been properly reformed because Ukraine is technically still at war.

Armed with old Soviet weapons and other older military equipment, Ukraine has sought to improve its weapons, and over the past seven years, the US has become the only major supplier of deadly and nonlethal weapons.

The aid, totaling over $2.5 billion, includes artillery radars, fears, banners, night vision glasses and patrol ships. The U.S. has also sent sophisticated Yavelin-type anti-tank missiles, which can give Ukrainian military a small advantage on the battlefield against Russian tanks.

In November, the US sent about 88 tonnes of ammunition, including dozens of Javelin rocket launchers, as well as 180 rockets. The new defence budget, approved by the U.S. Congress this week, included $300 million in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

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U.S. Embassy Kyiv (@ U n SEmbasiKeyiv) November 14, 2021

Along with other NATO officers, the US has also attempted to improve the treatment of Ukrainian forces; over 150 troops from the Florida National Guard are only in Ukraine training Ukrainian troops.

“The biggest challenge, according to me, is not that military, but political”, Grant told Radio Free Europe.

“has little confidence rather than the president, as the commander general of the armed forces and its administration, are just as prepared and strong as the army and population in general. But many will depend on what kind of attack (Russian president Vladimir) Putin will decide to pursue. There is no mood for political surrender in Ukraine”, he added.

The Ukrainian Army is now estimated to have 145,000-15 000 troops. Joint Operational Forces, conducting operations along the “control” of over 400km in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, are estimated to have between 30,000 and 35,000 troops.

Most military weapons and equipment, however, continue to be old. Ukraine's air force consists of a small fleet of Soviet helicopters and old fighter aircraft, whose effectiveness is suspicious and likely destroyed very soon in the event of a major Russian invasion, estimates experts.

The “Russians have learned a lot. The Russians have learned much of their operations in Syria, they have continued to reform their army”, said Alexander Vindman, former US Army official who serves as director for European and Russian affairs at the White House National Security Council.

“Ukrains have also learned a lot, but Russia still has more advantage in this direction”, he told Radio Free Europe.

So you're talking about a scenario where there's a lot of losses, but that actually, the result doesn't change”, he added.

Ukraine has purchased TB2-type Bayraktar fears from Turkey, which had played a key role in last year's conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Buying these fears has raised concerns in Russian forces, even though these fears are likely to have some decisive role, in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine. To date, Ukraine has purchased 12 such fears and has reportedly ordered dozens more.

It depends on what you mean by the word "resistence" ”, said Tor Bukkville, researcher at Norway's Research Institute for Protection, as asked how long Ukrainian forces can withstand a Russian invasion.

If it is to back off, then maybe very little or nothing. If you mean continuing fighting as an organised force, it is probably a matter of days or weeks”, he added.

Ukrainian forces “have improved significantly, not only because their situation in 2014 was so bad that it didn't take much to improve compared to that period”, Bukkville said.

I think their strong side is the experience on battlefields, morals and some modern weapons, including weapons coming from the outside. Their weak side seems to be organisation, the loss of key officers, and they have major weaknesses in some key weapons, such as air protection, electronic warfare and warplanes”, Bukkville added.

Satellite images show that Russia has placed equipment and weapons near the border that would allow it to launch a furious attack if the order is issued. For example, unconfirmed reports have documented that trucks used for digging holes have headed toward the Ukrainian border. Also, it has been seen that Russia has deployed Buk-1 type anti-missile systems.

While Rand's report hypothetically presented possible Russian advancements to the east bank of the Dnippre near the Dnipros, saying that this could be achieved within days, other reports have suggested that a Russian invasion would be so fast that if Russia were to put the takeover of the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, this would be achieved within hours.

If you look at it from a Ukrainian point of view, it depends on how many troops Russia will collect and which areas it will choose to conduct its operations”, Free Europe Radio, Konrad Muzyka, defence analyst from Poland, told the Radio.

“Systems for short-range air safety, anti-tank missiles, anything that could slow down the Russian offensive; such weapons would be very necessary. Does Ukraine have military capacities to stop a full invasion? I don't think there's”, Muzyka said.

There are few states in the world that could prevent an offensive by the Russian military. In the event of the invasion, Ukraine will have to mobilise as many militias as it can make Russia not easy. In that case, it would be a long and bloody conflict”, he added.

The large troop of forces (from Russia) is designed to crush the victims. It's designed to crush the Ukrainian army”, Vindman said.

Russia may not carry out full - scale conquest, but manage to make certain advances, experts estimate. They think Russia could aim to fix the water problem in Crime, as the supply of drinking water was cut off from Ukraine several months after Russia annexed this Ukrainian peninsula in 2014. Despite Russia's plans to build a $3.7 billion bridge that would link this peninsula to Russian territory, drinking water supplies in Crime continue to be a major problem.

Russian troops can also invade Ukrainian territory along the Azov Sea, including the large city of Mariupol, creating a <x0->uren ground” for Crime and enabling the Crimean Peninsula to have water supplies.

An even more limited offensive may be intended to force Kiev to implement the 2015 peace agreement on the Donbas issue, meeting Russia's demands.

Since almost no one expects the Ukrainian Army to face a Russian invasion, Ukrainian officials have suggested that a dependence on the country and Russia's attack could develop.

Then, this whole situation would turn into a long guerrilla war, which would be much more painful for both sides”, Bukkville told Radio Free Europe. / REL