Yeah. LITICO: Conflict imaginable in Balkans, Serbia causing

“S, along with Russian intervention, EU divisions and NATO weaknesses, this has proved to be a lethal mix”, the Express reads.

The text, written by Arminka Helic and Anthony Mangnall, with the title “we need to talk about the Western Balkans”, warns that the region's progress in the early 2000s is now being undone, leaving room for those who are causing problems.

The time has come for NATO and the EU to work together and take steps to halt the decline in progress and protect progress that has been made”, the text says.

The authors remember recent developments in the region that culminated in the deployment of armoured vehicles and fighter aircraft from Serbia to the border with Kosovo, while separatist politicians among Bosnian Serbs “who are politically and financially dependent on Serbia” are unilaterally withdrawn by state institutions created by the Dayton Agreement.

At the same time, it adds that they are conducting special police exercises by demonstrating force. In Montenegro, they add, Belgrade is promoting religious divisions, thus contributing to an increasingly toxic political climate that has raised issues of foreign policy orientation, ethnic and religious affiliation.

All these destabilising movements are further backed by the concept of the Serbian “world” an idea that authors warn that “sounded alarmingly with the idea of Slobodan Milosevic's “Great Serbia”, and is openly supported by Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin.

Politico points out, however, that the situation has now deteriorated further by a host of other factors, among which the most prominent is the active involvement of Russia.

“Kremlin supported the coup effort in Montenegro in 2016 and continues to ban Kosovo from full international recognition at the UN Security Council. It also supports paramilitaries and makes open threats in response to any proposal by Bosnia and Herzegovina to join NATO, seeking to undermine the High Representative, who is responsible for monitoring the progress of the Dayton Agreement and supporting the Secisionists and nationalists throughout the region. ”

Another important factor is the division of the European Union, which “is unable to meet the challenge of preserving peace and stability in the Balkans”, and some of its leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, are proposing a platform for the dangerous Islamic and anti-Bosnian “.

On the other hand, the perception after the chaotic withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan is that NATO is powerless and that now is a good time to challenge the alliance's position in the region.

The analysis authors insist that now is the key moment for joint action.

Western policy must take into account that crises and tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Montenegro are all interrelated and that support in Serbia as a pillar of stability in the Western Balkans is, unfortunately, wrong policy. Serbia is no longer Allied in solving political problems in the Balkans; it is the most important cause of these problems”, the text notes.

Moreover, NATO must ensure that its presence in the region is very important and that it acts as an obstacle to violence, which will largely mean an increase in the number of troops.

EUFOR's stabilising force in Bosnia and Herzegovina has only about 700 members, a modest contingent unlikely to face considerable instability. Kosovo must also be admitted into NATO's Partnership for Peace programme together with Bosnia and Herzegovina and NATO as soon as possible. ”

And finally, they stress, the EU must wake up and respond to threats at its external borders, because kind words lead nowhere.

A strong response supported by the threat of sanctions is the only message that will pass. Threats of violence, ethnic nationalism and denial of genocide must face clear and swift sentences, not the usual shameful silence of the EU”, this analysis is highlighted.

The authors conclude that the conflict in the region at this point is no longer unimaginable.

If we don't act, it's just a matter of time. Russia knows this and is deliberately testing NATO's determination and skills. If NATO and the EU are unable to protect stability in the Balkans which is not behind but in front of their doors, then there is little chance that they will do so elsewhere. ”