“Milorad Dodik must be isolated from West”

Bosnia and Herzegovina has been facing the highest level of political tensions since the end of the bloody war in this state in 1995. The Dayton Peace Accords stabilised the state, but now after many years there are efforts that endanger the peace and existence of the Bosnian Federation. The crisis was caused mainly after efforts by Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik to turn state power into ethnicity.

At first, Western powers did not seem to take the threats seriously, but now a number of Western governments and diplomats have moved on.

Sead Turcalo, an eminent Sarajevo University professor in an interview for Kosovo Press, says the crisis can be overcome if pro-Bosnian political options are co-ordinated together with the international community to isolate Milorad Dodik.

Furthermore, he says, a stronger commitment by the US and key EU countries is needed to prevent the mountain influence of Russia and limit Serbia's divisive activities in the region.

Kosovaress: Professor Turcalo, the worst political crisis since the end of the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, was produced by Milorad Dodik's threats to convert state powers to entity level. Is this an attempt to destroy the Dayton Peace Accord?

Turcalo: After 2006, Milorad Dodik has intensively tried to overthrow the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and progress achieved under the Dayton Constitution. In recent months we are experiencing the climax of Dodik's efforts in the direction of depowering the state, endangering sovereignty and therefore territorial integrity.

KP: If Dodik's warned movement had an epilogue, it would mean the illegal removal of the competencies of BiH state institutions, which have been formed over more than 20 years of implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords and therefore sound like a scenario of the years ♫90s. What might be the reaction of the Bosniak part?

Turcalo: The current reaction of political parties having a pro-Bosnian agenda is limited to stressing that these are unconstitutional movements that tend to endanger peace. Moreover, there is no clear joint activity that would isolate Milorad Dodik in the internal plan, and a clear agenda of co-ordination and strengthening to international actors that through international isolation and sanctions intended to make Dodik's political project fail, which would also end his political career. What is certainly clear is that there is a commitment, but also an obligation to protect institutionally the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state from such attacks.

KP: International experts are warning that Bosnia is in danger. From your point of view, would Bosnia likely be involved in armed conflict?

Turcalo: The growing talk about war is already disturbing, even though it is unlikely to happen at the moment. However, it should be taken into account that in the conditions where the authorities and political representatives of the entities of Republika Srpska use vocabulary that daily escalates the current political crisis, and in Serbia, ideas are closely similar to an up-to-date version of Greater Serbia I think at “Serbian Bota” then even the smallest, insignificant incident can lead to a situation that can push not only the country, but also the region into conflict.

KP: While tensions in Bosnia are escalating, so far we have not seen Belgrade authorities send messages of content. And perception has been created that Russia and Serbia are behind Dodik's warnings. What reaction can be expected from the West, the US, NATO and the European Union?

Turcalo: Milorad Dodik and the ruling regime in the Republika Srpska entity do not have enough courage or instruments and means to undertake activities without the support of Serbia and the Russian Federation leading to the violation of Bosnia and Herzegovina's sovereignty and, therefore, the entire judicial order established with the Dayton Peace Agreement. Although Serbia declares its support for Bosnia and Herzegovina's sovereignty and territorial integrity, with its policy content continuing to be a destabilising and divisive factor in the region. Institutional support is still present for convicted war criminals, a part of which is visible even these days in the event around Ratko Mladic's wall in Belgrade.

The Serbian world's idea, which in its content acts as an up-to-date version of the idea of Greater Serbia, is openly discussed, but that implementation in the first phase is somewhat more sophisticated and involves exploiting the support of one of the key mountain actors in the region .50 Russian Federation. Therefore, at this point, the partnership between the EU and the US is essentially crucial to fighting divisive actions and curbing the effects of evil. It is expected, at least in Bosnia and Herzegovina's case, that some EU countries, in co-operation with the United States of America, begin cutting financial flows to crisis initiatives and their political marginalisation. Hypothetically, NATO may also have so-called Over the Horizon forces, but I am not sure there will be any commitments in this direction.

KP: We have seen President Biden return to the Balkans some of the most successful American diplomats in the 1990s. Do you think these ambassadors will have to face similar problems as they did in the 1990s?

Turcalo: The crisis in the region has been a permanent category since the end of aggressive wars fought by the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Serbia in the region respectively. Within a crisis, only the intensity of the conflict changes. For now, we in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been in a serious situation since the end of aggression against the state. From the content of actions and documents approved by the political stance in the entity of Republika Srpska it is very clear that they are ready for complete destruction and postponement of the state into violence. That is why it seems that the task of the new diplomatic team of the Beden administration in the region could be to prevent conflict rather than work for progress in the region.

Kosovaress: After these tensions, the West has turned its attention to Bosnia and Herzegovina. US envoy to the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar was in Sarajevo this week. Diplomat Escobar has held a meeting with Mr Dodik, and the latter appears to have withdrawn from his movement. Do you see this as hypocrisy, or will Dodik really withdraw from his threats?

Turcalo: Judging by the moves following Escobar's visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina, only Milorad Dodik's rhetoric has lost some intensity, but the approach of the Russian Embassy, which supports its efforts to bring down state sovereignty and build pre-institutions, is more intense and aggressive. Although it is currently being tactfully designed for the appointment of a session of the Republika Srpska National Entity Assembly to adopt laws establishing pre-institutions, the first step has already been made with the adoption of the Law of the Bars Agency in RS.

KP: A large number of non-governmental organisations urged Turkish authorities to intervene to help Bosnia and Herzegovina. I don't know if this requirement is to attract the attention of the European Union, which has somehow not been very firm in its attitudes. How likely is Turkey to get involved in this crisis, since Turkey already feels influential?

Turcalo: I am not sure that Turkey will appear in a larger role than that mediator, meaning gathering Bosnian leaders into a kind of mediation, respectively. As far as the power and capacity of influence is concerned, however, the US and the EU are crucial actors who could lead to the de-excellation of the crisis.

KP: But, Mr. Dodik was also invited to Turkey, where he was hosted by the highest state level, including President Erdogan. What are your impressions of this visit and messages given by Ankara.

Turcalo: Turkey may act as mediator, but I don't see it may have the capacity to influence and escalate the current situation. Messages are moving in the direction of stabilisation and here is crucial the need for pressure to withdraw the current decisions of the Assembly and the Government of ethnicity and to prevent the governing structure in RS's entity from re-establishing such actions.

KP: We often see leaders of three ethnicities in Bosnia running, for example, Milorad Dodik in Belgrade, Mr. Izetbegovic in Ankara, Dragan Covovic in Zagreb, and it seems that none of these centres receive messages for the preservation and strengthening of peace. For those of us who see developments from abroad, the concentration of these leaders at these three centers is a signal that they want to measure their forces in other ways - distance, outside the table. I care about your opinion?

Turcalo: The role of states mentioned in Bosnia and Herzegovina's new history has been different. They should be seen from that perspective today. Neighboring countries continue to seek to succeed in disproportionately affect Bosnia and Herzegovina's internal policy, and very often, as in recent months, this impact leads to efforts to polarise, dismember and further eptoise the state and society in Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the other hand, I think Turkey's role at the moment cannot be seen outside the framework of a friendly state. What is noted is that relations between Turkey and Bosnia and Herzegovina are often more filled with emotions and personal relations between political leaders, while in other Turkish entrepreneurs still see stability and profit as a crucial factor in investment. Although Turkey has offered a range of benefits to Bosnia and Herzegovina in economic exchange, it is still clear that it is obviously more present in the largest markets in the region.

KP: And my last question, how can the crisis be overcome?

Turcalo: The crisis can be overcome if pro-Bosnian political options are co-ordinated along with the international community, isolated Milorad Dodik and his ruling regime in Republika Srpska's entity at the domestic and international level, and the international community through sanctions intended to bring its abolition. Moreover, a stronger commitment by the US and key EU countries is needed to prevent Russia's mountain influence and limit Serbia's divisive activities in the region. On the contrary, this is only the first part of the crisis, which can intensify in the coming months and negatively affect the entire region.

/ Sead Turcalo is an Eminent Professor of Geopoletics and International Security and Dean at the University of Sarajevo Faculty of Political Sciences.