Bieber: The only question is how to determine in the Kosovo rhetorical recognition package- Serbia

University of Graz professor and Balkan Affairs expert Florian Bieber said any solution between Kosovo and Serbia would have to include a kind of mutual recognition, as a way to normalise relations.

Regarding the recent US special envoy's statement to the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, at the hearing at the American Congress that “Belgrade and Pristina must continue dialogue, work to resolve their differences and normalise relations, ideally through mutual recognition of”, Bieber said without recognition there can be no normality of relations, and added that the only question is how to determine in the package, Report Express broadcast.

Any solution for relations between Serbia and Kosovo would have to imply a kind of mutual recognition, whether now it means full recognition or something very close to it, but from the start of the negotiations it was clear that this is the minimum, that normalisation could not be interpreted without it. In that sense, the only question is how, when and what will be the package in which this will be possible”, Bieber says, adding that it is important that the message is understandable in Serbia.

Even today it's strange to me that people are surprised, because the question is what is the next possible solution to the outcome of negotiations”, Bieber said of RTK's second Serbian-language programme.

He believes that the Association of Serb majority municipalities, for which Belgrade insists to be formed, will be the main topic of negotiations, but adds that without determining the final solution, it will be difficult to implement signed agreements.

The Kosovo and Serbian parties are not willing to compromise, because they fear it will reduce the space for maneuvering when it comes to that package, the final solution to normalisation of relations. I'm afraid it'll be very difficult... On the other hand, this final step will be very difficult because it implies mutual recognition, for which Serbia is not clear at the moment. In that sense, it seems to me that the actual process without strong support and a message from the United States and the EU will not lead to results”, Bieber said.

Speaking of regional co-operation and the open Balkans initiative, which Albania, Serbia and Macedonia participate in, Bieber says any co-operation is desirable, but that it should be clarified whether there will be really visible co-operation.

University of Graz professor shows that if this initiative does not join other countries in the region, it will hardly bring results in the form of better regional co-operation.

“If the Open Balkans exist on a surface level and especially if all countries in the region do not participate, I doubt there will be any contribution to the region, but if it approaches and resolves relations then it can be positive. However, I have the impression that the leaders of the region are willing to reduce tensions, political crises and resolve bilateral disputes, and in that sense I am not very optimistic about this” initiative, Bieber said.

He said the situation in the region is disturbing, so a strong joint commitment of the EU and the US is necessary.

Bieber estimated that there is currently no clear EU commitment to resolving open issues in the region. He thinks it is particularly disturbing the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the issue of election law is moving even more towards ethnic divisions.

There is a lot of tension in BiH, because the talks on electoral reforms and threats -- especially from Milorad Dodik -- are very serious and have turned into an atmosphere of fear leading to a political situation that could lead, perhaps not to war, but to some conflict of greater political blockade than it is now. So the messages from BiH are not very encouraging, it sounds more than the solution to Bosnia's election law leads to a greater extent of ethnic division in the political system than to reducing tensions. This has implications for the entire region”, Bieber says.

According to him, the situation in Serbia is not improving and there is no perspective, while the situation regarding local elections in Northern Macedonia can be seen as the result of the EU European integration blockade.

According to him, the resignation of Prime Minister Zoran Zaev due to the loss of the ruling party in local elections is a good political message for assuming responsibility for the election outcome, which is not very common in this region.

“On the other hand, it is disturbing because the nationalist opposition has not implemented any reform since the loss of power and Gruevski probably wants to return from Budapest to a moment”, Bieber points out, and adds that in that way the EU has had a part of its role in the election results.

“I don't see messages and efforts from the EU to take the region seriously and thus try to resolve the open issues that exist,” said Bieber.

Balkan expert Florian Bieber stresses that it is desirable for the United States of America to be constructively involved in resolving issues in the region, but that only in co-operation with the EU can there be concrete results.

He says it should be seen what the commitment of President Biden's envoy to the region will be, because the previous “administration did not do so constructively in co-operation with the EU”.

The question is what exactly it means. The United States is much weaker than 10 or 15 years ago in the region in terms of legitimacy, and also in terms of other actors that are stronger. It now depends on the extent to which the United States will try to push things along with the EU to bring some results. So the question is to what extent there is serious co-operation and readiness for long-term engagement and review of the wider regional perspective”, Bieber says.