Former British diplomat: Kosovo and Bosnia, two theatres playing the same drama

Why does he think the crisis in Kosovo and Bosnia will connect? Are breakup or war options? Will the international community show teeth in BiH's example, or will it break them in Bosnian politics? A position on these issues for N1 was expressed by Timothy Les, former British diplomats and project manager of “The Geopolics Centre at Cambridge University studies of disinformation”.

Less five years ago published an article in Foreign Affairs, saying that Republika Srpska could join Serbia and the majority Croatian parts in Bosnia and Herzegovina could become part of Croatia. According to that scripture, a part in northern Kosovo would be given to Serbia, while Kosovo would join Albania in one state. Most at the time considered his analysis to be utopia. In N1, he confirmed when asked whether the recent events in BiH, Kosovo, but also the statements of Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, really lead in that direction.

I think it's possible. Unlike the past, I think in the case of BiH there are strong factors that act for a breakup of Serbs and Croats feel threatened. In RS, they think their autonomy is not respected, they think the United States supports Bosniaks. I don't judge whether their perception is correct, but I follow what they say, it's just part of the analysis. Until recently, they were limited by fear of punishment from the United States. These restrictions will potentially not be implemented, it is not clear that the United States will punish Republika Srpska if it joins Serbia”, he said.

Noting that he takes a radical stance, he was asked to clarify the basis for his claims that Serbia could annex Republika Srpska.

The “is an issue of Serbia's perceived interests for RS and BiH in general. RS is too weak to be independent. If separated from the BiH, support from Serbia is vital to its survival. It seems to me that leadership in Belgrade has not yet decided what their position is on the issue of BiH survival is. I think Vuciqi is afraid of the consequences of what it would be like to withdraw to the conflict in BeiH... We have heard Vulin speak of the Serbian “bot” now and a few weeks, Vuciq said, adding that responsibility for Bosnian Serbs would fall on Serbia's back -- they suggest a way to lead to BiH and a possible intervention”, Les said.

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When asked what reaction he expects from foreign forces, he said he believes they will not sit down and watch, but underlined that it is difficult to predict their intervention.

“I cannot guarantee that they will react decisively if Bosnian Serbs decide to go to the end. Serbs have never gone that far before, we have never had such a situation, so it is difficult to be sure that Europeans and the United States will take decisive action. Russia and China will surely support Serbs. The comment from Russia is that they are ready to provide support to Serbs. Dodik also believes he has China's support when it comes to investment funds if RS loses the support of the EU”, Les said.

He goes on to declare that several EU countries are in a very positive mood when it comes to Serbs”.

Some of them also contribute to the work of the EU, and some of them support the dissolution of the BiH. That's impossible to confirm, but there's some evidence of how the money is. However, I think there is no EU state that would welcome the breakup of BiH. The United States' instinct is to protect its political investment in BiH, but if they have to impose sanctions on Serbs, they will do so without EU support and against Russia and China”. said Les.

We are now in a situation that has never existed before”, he stressed.

Republika Srpska's <x0/nderage is Dodik's long-term target”

Les was also questioned about the reasons for the silence of Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq in this case, but also about the actions of Bosnian Serb presidency member Milorad Dodik recently.

“I don't think Dodik will provoke dangerous conflicts with the international community in order to win the upcoming elections, from his point of view, dividing RS from BiH is his long-term goal. I see his intentions as strategic, not tactical --”, Les said.

As for Vuciqi, according to the former diplomat, his current inactivity stems from indecision.

“Crises in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are linked”

Asked how it connects crises in Kosovo and BiH, Les says these two crises are interrelated in two ways, the Express broadcasts.

“These are two theatres where the same drama is under way. It's solving the Serbian issue. Another link is that these two theaters peak at the same time, which may not be coincidence. It is possible that Dodik is following the events in Kosovo and sees this as an opportunity. It is difficult to predict what will happen because there are many factors that affect this situation. Dodik may hope that this will lead to a result where foreign forces will solve the two biggest problems by exchanging territories between Republika Srpska and Kosovo”, Les said.

Asked whether revising the borders in the Balkans could pass without conflict, he stressed that arguments that go in both directions are possible.

“If Bosnian Serbs decide to separate, a conflict is unlikely to arise... at the same time, the survival of BiH as an integral state is a existential issue for Bosniaks and there are sensitive points throughout Bosnia, the risk of violence exists. I doubt it will be close to what happened in the 1990s because people have been separated, but I can't rule out violence to some extent”, he said.