International Crisis Group: None of the compromise options are ideal

The EU is also encouraged by the ICG to promote dialogue with Kosovo.

The ICG report, expected to become public during the day, contains 27 pages and has been divided into five parts, among which talk about the EU's role in technical issues, as Pristina and Belgrade see the issue and three political options, followed.

Kosovo's independence is the main conflict, the report says.

“Starting as early as 2006, Pristina and Belgrade have repeatedly held talks on normalising relations. They have agreed on many points, but do not agree on the most important issue that divides them: Kosovo independence”It says in the report.

After 2011, EU mediation brought agreement on technical issues to an end, but failed on key issues of political conflict, the report estimates that “In 2018, the presidents of both countries designed key points for reaching an agreement based on the exchange of territories that was rejected after being rejected both from within and from the EU”.

Continuing further on with stories, the report says the EU-led dialogue resumed in July 2020, and Washington launched a parallel effort, but the new diplomatic push has faced major difficulties.

“While Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq appears interested in reaching an agreement, his Kosovo colleague is facing war crimes charges, leaving the Pristina government in chaos and without any prominent supporters for reaching the” agreement, It says further.

The September meeting at the White House was seen to be a symbolic meeting, it says further, stressing that “A stable agreement can only be reached if Belgrade and Pristina change until now” positions.

Serbia's constitution requires that any kind of agreement that would accept Kosovo independence be approved by referendum, but political leadership has done nothing to prepare voters for compromise required to reach agreement, says the report, which continues explaining that “Kosovo does not need that, but Kosovo leaders may demand that the agreement be voted in order to be legitimised, and that would require the preparation of the Kosovo public to make necessary concessions”.

Options for Compromise

The options with which compromise can be reached are three: The first is based on the sweetening of Serbia, which would receive donor support for EU development and membership, in return for recognising Kosovo's independence. The second would be for Serbia to recognise Kosovo's independence, in exchange for creating new autonomous zones for Kosovo Serbs and Serbia's Albanians. And the third option would be to exchange territories, as was the draft agreement in 2018.

“None of these options is ideal” Report states that “Currently, Brussels should focus on encouraging negotiations in which parties would be free to find solutions that would comply with human rights and international laws”.

Both the EU and the US must play their role, the report says. The EU should see whether it can change its position as a clear goal of reaching the final agreement based on mutual recognition (which does not accept the five EU nations do not recognise Kosovo) and make it clear that EU mediapeople will not avoid discussions, both for autonomy and territory exchanges, the International Crisis Group report says.

The US, in turn, must work with the Kosovo government to develop a negotiation strategy based on the consensus that recognition is possible, but by accepting specific conditions, the report says.

Kosovo's “Partners must prepare for opportunities for talks to continue without providing any solution. Under these circumstances, the best strategy could be the opening that would enable Kosovo to continue integration into international institutions and to establish economic, political and security ties with the rest of the world. They can send a large part of the Balkan investments and aid to Pristina. This would remind Belgrade that it does not have the permanent veto on the future of Kosovo”, writes the International Crisis Group in the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue report.

The crisis group, an independent international organisation based in Brussels, has 120 members worldwide, trying through analyses and lawyers to prevent conflicts and resolve the remaining conflicts.

From the names of politicians who have dealt with the Kosovo conflict- Serbia is Carld Bild, former Foreign Minister of Sweden Federica Moghrini, former EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Affairs and George Soros, founder of the Foundation for Open Society, all three members of the Crisis Group's chairmanship Board. The name of Martti Ahtisaari, former Finnish diplomat and former Kosovo special in charge, is also on the list.