“Israel owed US recognition of Kosovo”

Yonatan Touval, analyst at the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policy, says in an interview for Radio Free Europe that the recognition of Kosovo by Israel, 12 years after declaring independence, comes at a time when Palestinians' position on the global stage is at a low point.

Concerns that Kosovo's independence would promote secessionist feelings in Israel are no longer dominant, according to him.

Touval says Israel owed the US recognition of Kosovo, especially for the fact that the Trump administration has brokered its normalisation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states.

Israel owes many to the United States some would also say about its existence, Towaval says.

Radio Free Europe: Mr. Touval, establishing diplomatic relations between Kosovo and Israel is certainly a welcome development by both countries. But what do you think has changed in Israel, given that it has refused to recognise Kosovo's independence over the past 12 years?

Yonatan Touval: That's a good question. I think that Israel's refusal to recognise Kosovo has always had to do with wavering reasons. It had to do with anxiety about what I would call imaginary paralia between Kosovo and Palestine, in the eyes of the international community. So, he has been concerned that [admission] to Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence would provide legitimate precedents for Palestinians, would encourage the Palestinian domestic Arab minority to secede [and] could impose an international solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

I think these anxieties, these concerns about this imaginary parallel between Kosovo and Palestine, have softened considerably over the past 12 years.

For these 12 years, since Kosovo has declared independence, history has shown that it has had no negative impact on [Israel's] conflict with Palestinians. The Palestinians' stance on the global stage is at a low point. They are in no position to declare their independence. Even if they did, their actions might not gain universal support.

Then, when it comes to sensitistic feelings among Israel's Palestinian population, it is increasingly clear that these feelings have weakened greatly and do not pose a real threat to Israel. So all these worries and anxieties no longer have such dominant strength in Israeli political psychics.

Radio Free Europe: In an opinion on the Haaretz site you wrote: “The fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah's Government has now decided that it is ready to recognise Kosovo, is primarily due to American pressure”. Why would Israel submit to American pressure?

Yonatan Touval: Israel owes many to the United States some would also say about its existence. Traditionally, if the United States asks Israel for something, which is not existential concern for Israel, Israel provides it. In the case of Kosovo, [American President Donald] Trump has asked Netanyah if he is willing to recognise Kosovo, especially if Kosovo engages in opening its embassy in Jerusalem. As you know, this is a matter of great importance to Netanyah.

And since there was no question about existence

[of Israel]

Netanyahu has easily said "popo," especially because he owes Trump the mediation of normalisation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states.

Radio Free Europe: What do you think will be the reaction of Palestinian authorities and Arab states?

Yonatan Touval: Palestinians cannot be satisfied. But they have more urgent problems now, when some Arab and Muslim states have signed, or are in the process of reaching bilateral normalisation agreements with Israel. So, I don't think that in the current context, establishing relations between Israel and Kosovo is of concern to Palestinians, or to other Arab countries that are resistant to the idea of normalisation with Israel.

The only disturbing issue here for Palestinians may be Kosovo's intention to open its embassy in Jerusalem. It would be a symbolic act that undermines the Palestinian and majority position of the international community, which says that Jerusalem's status should be resolved fully in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and, only after being resolved, the city will gain recognition as the capital of Israel.

Radio Free Europe: Kosovo-Israel relations are part of a broader agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, otherwise known as the Washington Agreement. Do you see this agreement as part of a series of agreements the White House has brokered between Israel and other countries from the Middle East, and how does Kosovo connect with them?

Yonatan TouvalTrump certainly views it as part of a series of agreements. He is mediating, has received a diplomatic momentum because he is trying to present successive successes before the November elections. Obviously, the agreement between Serbia and Kosovo has nothing to do with Israel. Trump, however, has forced this relationship, and this has indeed confused all, including Israel. Nobody knows how he was born.

But Trump may simply have seen an opportunity when Kosovo and Serbian leaders have signed the agreement at the White House to ask them to open embassies in Jerusalem. And he put it in the agenda.

It will stress that since the U.S. has moved its embassy to Jerusalem in 2018, only Guatemala and Honduras have followed suit. Trump wants to see the embassy move there as a way to legitimise his decision to move the American Embassy to Jerusalem.

Radio Free Europe: As you are saying, Washington's agreement envisions the opening of the Kosovo Embassy in Jerusalem and the transfer of Serbia's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The European Union and other countries, such as Turkey, which is a major investor in both Kosovo and Serbia, have warned against such a decision. How do you think things will develop?

Yonatan Touval: Yeah, that's very interesting. And, I think, we have already seen Serbia back from its promise. Thus, EU pressure on this issue will weigh considerably, especially when it comes to Serbia, which has opened EU membership negotiations.

As far as Kosovo is concerned, it is less clear how things will turn out. If Trump is re-elected, Kosovo can simply move forward and open the embassy in Jerusalem, in the hope that such a gesture will be repaid in Washington.

But if [Democrat Joe candidate] Biden is elected [US president], will probably depend on it if Israel threatens to withdraw recognition of Kosovo if Kosovo does not open its embassy in Jerusalem. So we have to see how things flow.

Radio Free Europe: But many have argued, especially in Kosovo, that the European Union has no right to intervene in Kosovo's foreign affairs, taking into account the fact that the EU itself is not unique in recognising Kosovo; its five states refuse to recognise it...

Yonatan Touval: Yeah, exactly. This is a very valuable argument. So I think Kosovo will also declare if it decides to open its embassy in Jerusalem. I think it will depend on various pressures: from Washington, from Trump if it is re-elected, from Jerusalem if the current government is still in office...

There will surely be considerable pressure on Kosovo to open the embassy in Jerusalem. And, Kosovo can do it. As you said, it will have strong arguments against Brussels.

Radio Free Europe: Do you think the outcome of the US elections will affect the implementation of the Washington Agreement?

Yonatan Touval: I think that regardless of who is elected in November, the United States will continue to push for a comprehensive agreement and reconciliation between Kosovo and Serbia. Trump would certainly want to implement the final agreement. Beden I think has long been a supporter of Kosovo-Serbian reconciliation.