Turkey's goals of superpowers: Erdogan hurls fire south of the Caucasus

Turkey considers itself the defence power of the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. The populations of both countries have ethnic and linguistic similarities. Very soon after the proclamation of the small state's independence at the Caspian Sea in 1991, the doctrine was declared “2 states, a nation”. Both Baku and Ankara underline their bilateral relations with this slogan.

Since the mid-1990s, the troops of Azerbaijan and Armenia have had regular military clashes ranging from incidents on borders to real wars for the Nagorni-Karabah region, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but which Armenia considers an independent state. After a military conflict between the two countries, Nagorni region - Karabah has been under Armenia's control since 1994.

New clash, Ankara positioned

On July 12th, there was yet another bloody clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the northern Armenian province of Tavos. According to official information, 17 people were killed, mainly soldiers. Both countries blame each other.

Ankara reacted with harsh rhetoric by positioning on Azerbaijan's side and Turkish Defence Minister Hulus Akar blamed Armenia alone for the incident. But this time the Turkish government was not alone in words. From August 1st to 10th, the two Allied countries will hold joint military maneuvers in the vicinity of Baku and Nagorni Karabah, with the participation of Turkish Air Force helicopters as well.

Threat to Stability and Security

Centre Director “Insight Centre for Data Analytics”, Anna Karapetyan considers the maneuver a dangerous signal. After unprecedented aggressive rhetoric, Turkey is launching a military maneuver, which will not contribute to more security and stability in the region,” said policyologist.

“Turkey is a destructive factor in the Nagorni-Karabah” conflict. Turkish military support must be understood as a threat to Armenia and must be punished by the international community, Karapetayan says.

And Hakki Cassin of Istanbul's Yeditepe University supports the joint military maneuver in which land, air units and special forces participate. „Turkey is trying to use military power to ensure peace and stability in the region,” said international relations expert.

Ankara wants to secure gas treasures

Ankara supports the small country in the Caspian Sea for economic reasons as well: Along with Georgia, Azerbaijan is an important energy corridor for Turkey. Transanatolian, transkaukazian, and South Caucasus come through these two countries.

Through them, natural gas flows from the Caspian Sea to Turkey's gas distribution network. Ankara is adding to efforts to reduce energy dependence on Russian gas and Azerbaijan in recent years has become one of Turkey's most important energy suppliers.

Ankara, Moscow face again

The fact that Ankara is taking more and more to defend Azerbaijan is being followed by the Kremlin with Argus' eyes. Turkish expert for Russia Kerim Has of Moscow says he does not think the current military maneuver will cause tensions between Ankara and Moscow.

But however, the situation may change quickly, because “has increasing evidence that the Turkish government wants to create a permanent military base in Azerbaijan.” And according to the expert this would bring a serious potential for conflict between Ankara and Moscow.

The reason for the Russian government's sceptical attitude towards Ankara's hegemonic aspirations is that Moscow also does business in the region. Russian energy companies like Gazprom have the gas supply monopoly for Armenia and Nagorni-Karabah. And not only: Russia views itself as Armenia's defensive enemy, Azerbaijan's head-on enemy. The Russian Armed Forces have a military base in Armenia since 1995, and it is located only 15km from the Turkish border.