Economic downturn could be two-perceived, BEC forecasts only 2 to 4%

Kosovo is the poorest country in the region.

The state economy has added to its contact with the Corona virus.

For weeks, the Government has closed almost every defence business to prevent the spread of Covid 19.

The Kosovo Central Bank (BQK) expects the country to have an economic downturn by 4%.

So has made it known in an answer given to the apparition.info, Serim Ahmeti, spokesperson at the CEC.

He has added that the IMF has projected a decline of up to 5%, but both these forecasts should be taken in reserves.

The current projections are that we will have an economic decline of minus 2 to minus 4 per cent, while the projections of the International Monetary Fund are that Kosovo will have an economic decline about minus 5 per cent, but these forecasts should be taken in reserve take into account the fact that it is still difficult to make an accurate forecast of economic growth, given the effects or factors that could cause pandemic, depending on how long the pandemic will last, and which will be its size in Kosovo<1>

And according to the CEC, 2021 will bring a much better recovery.

The next “is expected to have a much better or full recovery. While our assessment and that of the International Monetary Fund are similar to expectations for growth in the coming year that we will have economic growth somewhere around 7.5% ”, he said.

But as unrealistic as you see these figures, the chairman of the Kosovo Afarism Oade (OAK), Skender Krasniqi.

That's a proposal given to the bear. Info said the fall would reach a two-way number.

“Based on the high-responsive analysis and lack of support that businesses have from the government, the declines may also be two digits because the state has not helped and failed to support businesses, and it is still not known how support and businesses will be maintained either on soft loans or with the support of salaries for businesses and loans without interest”, he has said.

He has added that the decline depends directly on state assistance for businesses.

“Based on analysis, the decline will also depend on the support of the state, but consumption has declined and resistance and decline will be much greater than in developed states”, he added.

Unlike the CEC, Krasniqi thinks that the coming year is at risk of no recovery, but of getting worse.

“This situation will pass through Kosovo next year, and if they're not supported by loans for businesses, then we won't have recovery, but we will also have an increase of discontent because we are dealing with a state that has the biggest unemployment in Europe and that's the problem that we're not going to take into account”, he added.

Otherwise, the World Bank in its report for Kosovo has predicted a 4.5 per cent economic decline in 2020, followed by increased return in 2021.

The explosion of COVIDD-19 and necessary braking measures are causing unprecedented pressure on investments, private consumption, but also on exports and remittances from the diaspora.

While consumption can be restored as the economy recovers, service exports and investments will take more time to recover. In this context, public revenues will suffer significant decline.