Towards dialogue beyond leadership or peace agreement?

The process of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia has been complicated to the extent that there is no rational expectations on both sides that dialogue will be determine on their part, the connoisseurs of political issues estimate.

However, statements by Kosovo authorities and those of Serbia recently, according to them, are strategic communication on the part of both sides, with caution and warning a possible return to the negotiating table.

Political affairs analyst Artan Muhhaxhiri tells Radio Free Europe that Kosovo authorities and Serbia's authorities are now aware that dialogue needs to be returned, but that they are powerless to set the frames of that dialogue themselves. Therefore, according to him, both sides are already awaiting an initiative from the United States and the European Union, so that they can then negotiate on the basis that will be presented.

This is important for several reasons. The main reason is that both sides want to drop responsibility for any eventual failure and for the compromises they will have to make, because it will be much easier to reason before their citizens relevant for those concessions during the negotiations, which seem to be binding”, Muhramir noted.

Dialogue Without Head

On Monday, Kosovo President Hashim Thaci has declared that Kosovo is ready to return to the dialogue, where it will require mutual recognition and acceleration of the road to membership in the United Nations”, as well as since in this process, “Kosovo is along with the United States and all other allies”.

In an interview for the Balkan Radio Service Free Europe two days ago, Serbia's President Aleksandar Vuciq has stressed that in the dialogue it will not go to recognise Kosovo's independence. He has also stressed that he has <x0 left the major initiatives” and that he is awaiting “what will be proposed”.

Vuciq: Removing reciprocity creates room for dialogue

But does this mean that the parties in the dialogue have no idea what it will talk about at the dialogue table?

Political affairs analyst Agon Maliqi, speaking of Radio Free Europe, says the statements of both presidents, Kosovo and Serbia -- see them as tactics and that explain nothing. But, according to him, they give evidence that the parties will enter into the process of dialogue, which, however, will be inconsistent if the initiative is lacking from the United States and the European Union. As he says, the roleless dialogue at this moment is not in anyone's interest.

The “, therefore, may now be set as a framework, at least the final result that is mutual recognition and any timetable. I don't know what this process might look like, it's really extremely difficult and very speculating to say. It's about maybe two different processes. One of the more symbolic political levels led by the United States, also focused on the economy to build the climate more, but also the political drive, the political insistence to move towards recognition. Another process, perhaps that of the EU, where more would be talked about the details and specifics of the agreement. So, the most technical”, Maliqi stressed.

Past failures, as lesson for final Kosovo agreement

Last stage of dialogue, more energetic

Analyst Mujardiri says it is already evident that in recent days there are signs that warn that the latest stage of dialogue will become much more energetic, as well as that there will be major political investments by the international community and on the sides in dialogue, Kosovo and Serbia.

It seems that this time again the principle that has been to Rambouille and Vienna will be applied, to offer a broad, general orientation and then to discuss that platform, to compromises, which they can make. So, even for red lines of how far they can go”, Mujariri said.

Meanwhile, analyst Maliqi stresses that there is already a dose of suspicion in the opinion that some kind of agreement already exists or that at least there is an agreement on terms of reference, on the details of which can be discussed.

It all happened these months, with the pretext that something big had to happen this year. So it's rational to wait and maybe it would be absurd for nothing to happen. Then it is a challenge to reason especially before voters in Kosovo why all this initiative was undertaken by parties in Kosovo to overthrow the government, if dialogue is nowhere even with the new government”, Maliqi said.

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Pro-indentation. US or EU reflection in uncertainty related to dialogue

Both connoisseurs and political developments estimated that reaching a peace agreement between Kosovo and Serbia this year is difficult, but according to them, taking into account the energetic nature of the US administration, is not ruled out for this year.

Such a result, they say, will also depend on the possible co-ordination of the US with the European Union and its interest and efforts to achieve such a result.

According to a recent research in Kosovo by the Research Institute for European Affairs and Development (RIDEA), which was published Tuesday, results in 92 percent of Albanians and 64 percent of Kosovo Serbs say any effort must be made to reach the final agreement between the two countries. While 66 percent of Albanians and 49 percent of Serbs support the resumption of dialogue on normalising relations.