Bugayski: Territorial exchange notions are mainly designed by Belgrade

The resumption of talks between Kosovo and Serbia has been warned to take place 27 June in Washington. In an exclusive interview for KosovaPress, American expert from “Center for European Policy Analysis”, Janusz Bugajski, says Brussels is afraid the US can convince both sides to sign an agreement that will destabilise the region with exchange of territories and changes to borders.

According to him, the notion of territorial exchanges is a confusion designed mainly by Belgrade. In this interview, he also speaks of the possibility of Russia's intervention in the dialogue process, adding that for Putin's regime, maintaining conflicts in the Balkans, it serves its geopolitical goals.

Total interview:

Kosovaress: Mr. Bugajski, you have a long career that concerns political and diplomatic developments in the Balkan region, we are interested in your opinion about what you think will happen on June 27th at the White House.

Janusz Bugajski: The meeting at the White House will mark the formal start of talks between Kosovo and Serbia, with full support from the US. President Trump's administration is seeking a final solution, even though no one is expecting something extraordinary on June 27th. For the White House, reaching an agreement by September would be ideal. Perhaps there will be promises that the parties will return to the White House to sign the agreement if it is reached during the summer.

Kosovaress: We have developments of an interesting dynamic here in Kosovo, in Pristina is the European Union's special envoy for talks between Kosovo and Serbia, but apparently, authorities here are not so excited, what do you think? Is it possible that the upcoming talks will take place in Brussels or have already moved to Washington.

Janusz Bugajski: We have a disagreement between the European Union and the United States regarding dialogue. Washington is frustrated with Brussels' slow progress in restarting negotiations, as well as their failure to push the two sides towards a solution. Brussels is fearing that the US can convince both sides to sign an agreement that will destabilise the region with exchange of territories and changes of borders. It is clear that both Pristina and Belgrade view the United States as a stronger mediator, even though their long-term prospects are with the European Union.

Kosovaress: Should Kosovo remain anxious by the outcome of the June 27th meeting, or be more relaxed, because of the fact that the meeting is being held in Washington, the most beloved country for Albanians?

Janusz Bugajski: At the White House meeting, two things are important for Kosovo: Political unity and clear presentation of Kosovo's position. Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti has set the basic principles during a speech at the Academy of Science and Arts. If you want the talks to produce results, then Serbia's efforts to unilaterally challenge Kosovo's independence are unacceptable. This should be made clear in Washington.

Kosovaress: How do you see Russia in this case, will there be efforts to be a factor and can they influence authority in Belgrade to maintain a position that fits Russia's interest in other crises, especially developments in the Middle East and Ukraine?

Janusz Bugajski: Moscow will certainly be interested in engaging in the talks, but this would make any solution more difficult. For Putin's regime, maintaining conflicts in the Balkans serves its geopolitical goals, halting NATO and EU enlargement, and enabling policy “over and Sundo”.

Kosovaress: Do you expect Russia to provoke tensions in the Balkans if eliminated as a factor?

Janusz Bugajski: Russia continues to provoke tensions across the region and in order to sabotage any meaningful agreements between Serbia and Kosovo, it may try to orchestrate different provocations. This could include political assassinations, the insistence of interethnic conflicts, the Pucci plot (as in Montenegro), or through the support of states of division (as in Bosnia and Herzegovina).

Kosovaress: Kosovo's president has declared that the issue of territories will not be discussed in Washington. Do you see this as something that's over?

Janusz Bugajski: The president and government in Pristina must speak unanimously. The notion of territorial exchanges is a largely designed confusion by Belgrade to make some Kosovo international and politicians believe they will stress bilateral reports and result in “abnormalisation”. There were no secret agreements between Belgrade and Pristina, because it would harm Kosovo's interests.

Kosovaress: What European future could there be for the Balkans if the epilogue of the talks held in Washington is not in agreement with Brussels' position on dialogue?

Janusz Bugajski: If Pristina and Belgrade make a real deal that will lead to resident recognition, the EU will not object to that. As for the EU, it will have to rely on the five states that have not yet recognised Kosovo and discontinue Serbian and Russian revisionism, finally recognising Kosovo. This would advance any bilateral agreement between Pristina and Belgrade.

Kosovaress: For the end, what might June 30th look like in terms of reports between Kosovo and Serbia?

Janusz Bugajski: In the best possible scenario, both sides will realise that the US is serious about helping mediate an agreement, where the two neighbouring states would accept each other's independence and sovereignty. However, since Serbia is not expected to have an unexpected reflection, summer months will be central to concreteising American inclusion.