Bieber: Thaci is a powerful president, would make sense for Hoti to go to the U.S. without him

He believes that Kosovo's problem is that at the negotiating table there is no strong co-ordinator, until he believes the European Union and the United States have interfered with the dialogue process between Kosovo and Serbia. As for Belgrade, Bieber believes he may be satisfied with recent developments.

Radio Free Europe: What did you initially think when you learned about the news of the indictment against Thaci and Wessel?

Florian Bieber: On the one hand, it was no surprise. We know I've been waiting for some kind of indictment against Thaci for a long time, because this thing was going on in the air in many ways. Of course, time, this was the greatest surprise because it was just three days before the summit. So the shock was smaller than what happened now, actually. This was the biggest surprise that caught my attention.

Radio Free Europe: Thaci and Prime Minister Hoti will not attend the meeting in Washington? Is this a deadly blow to that process? The process led by the United States?

Florian Bieber: I think so. It would make no sense for the prime minister (of Kosovo) to go and talk with (Serbia's) president), it is a kind of asymmetry there. It's already a very asymmetric relationship, because on one side we have a president (on the other). You have a very weak prime minister, who, until the president is very powerful with a kind of political dominance. So that would make it very difficult to create a meaningful dialogue, and now I think what is really unclear is the basis of the conversation, because we don't know what Thaci's position will be? Should he resign? If so, who will replace it? Because, of course, the prime minister and the entire Kosovo process have been promoted by Thaci himself, and there is limited support beyond that. So I think it's not just about personal participation at the Washington Summit, but it also has to do with the fact that if there's any conversationator from the Kosovo side to advance the American-led process.

Radio Free Europe: Does this potentially enable the growth of activity on the part of the European Union, or is the issue of the Kosovo leadership insurmountable for anyone trying to mediate?

Florian Bieber: I think the European Union has tried to take on an active role in negotiations and (EU envoy for diaogoun, Miroslav) Lajcak was holding talks with politicians of both capitals and was preparing this dialogue. We still do not know exactly the format, but it is clear that he was preparing for it. Before Thaci was indicted, we had a kind of reception from (the US envoy for dialogue, Richard) Grelli and said that he was not thinking of any major progress in the talks, but of some kind of focus on the economy, which he already took a step back, certainly not because he wanted to, but because he realized that he couldn't reach agreement. So the United States is later involved, but I still want to say that without US support it will be difficult for the EU to have an agreement. Also, the European Union is in a difficult position at the moment because, as you know, it is clearly favoured by Albin Kurti's government, which has already collapsed, also does not know whether the Kosovo side has a lack of a strong co- talker, which remains a problem. So I will expect the EU will take more time, but will certainly try to take on an important role in the entire process. Radio Free Europe: Let me go back to the questions regarding the announcement. As you said, everyone seems to have been surprised by time for something that was created in April. It's kind of weird for the announcement to become public names, isn't it? What you think of the timing and the fact that a court of preliminary procedure is analyzing the indictment.

Florian Bieber: What we know is that the statement was imposed by the Prosecutor's Office, or at least so it seems- he felt that this declaration should be made public, because the indictment could be avoided or pressured by both indictees or perhaps by someone else. So we don't know, but it may have been about the summit, in terms that Thaci may have had an effort to secure immunity, protection from the indictment through this process. We still have to know what happened there. But I can certainly suggest that there may have been some real relationship between these two.

Radio Free Europe: Have you heard any more reliable explanation of the time that you believe should be given attention?

Florian Bieber: Thaci's support for changes in the borders and all the way he was leading the dialogue for the past two years, suggests his personal purpose for political survival, because you know, people have been waiting for an indictment that would be long ago or that he would be applied in one way or another. All this process seems to have been prompted by his personal interest in protecting himself. This exactly means--the idea of self-defense, in that he could have immunity in any kind of act, and none of this seemed clear, but certainly seemed like the main strategy. So from this perspective, it's something that wasn't unexpected. It's speculating what happened behind the scenes, but it's understandable that this may have been a real concern of the prosecution, about what might have happened, if he had gone, and certainly since the indictment has become public is very difficult to proceed with a regular process. But specific details no one knows except for those involved and I wouldn't want to speculate beyond that.

Radio Free Europe: If I realized correctly that Europe is under less time pressure because of internal reasons. Now the U.S. elections are approaching. But do you believe they will try to take more initiatives, or will they try to advance ideas that can affect the agreement or normalisation of the process?

Florian Bieber: I think that to some extent, America and Europe had interference with each other, and this has enabled both presidents to act against one side not fully committed to any. Thus, the existence of a parallel road or another particular route has damaged European efforts. It has had large packages to offer, the European perspective, unblocking the non-recognition of five EU states and member states. So, the EU has always had greater access. But she just lost control of this thing years ago, when Moghrin wasn't responsible enough. But now is a chance to regain control and a good time in the sense, for Lajcak is taking over the process and starting to create a way forward. But again, the EU has been increasingly oriented towards processes than the United States has. It's not in her nature to punch the table and say that's what it's supposed to be. So it will be a slow process. But this is the possibility that the EU will return to the leadership chair, if I can say so.

Radio Free Europe: Is it not depressing for anyone who wants to see progress? You mentioned Green, who tried to simplify things and achieve something concrete in an economic way. So do they not despair when they see that even those limited goals can be damaged?

Florian Bieber: I can say that any progress, any agreement is a positive step and especially when it comes to economic co-operation. I mean, even though she failed you know first of all, the indictment had nothing to do with his attempt. But his effort depended heavily on the two presidents. That, of course, is always a problematic basis for negotiations. He was very involved in sabotaging the former Kosovo government, which had a very broad political mandate in terms of electoral support. So in a way it is his disaster -- because he failed to do so involved all of Kosovo's political actors, focusing on only one side, in this Thaci case. And that, of course, has made the process more sensitive because it has been clear that this political person, perhaps because of the past, is more vulnerable, so he has risked having a weak actor in Kosovo, who would be reconciled to many things that others would not agree on. But the reason why he would be reconciled is because of his weakness, which has ultimately failed the process. I think it was kind of a bad approach to this kind of “abnormalization”. If there was a literal process, there would have to be the basis for supporting the acts involved, especially when there is an asymmetry. In Kosovo politics is fragmented and pluralistic, while in Serbia it is monolith at the moment, which shows that you have a very weak partner on the one hand, and on the other, a very strong one, and that is not a good negotiating tactic.

Radio Free Europe: I wanted to ask you about Belgrade. It was probably the best time to try to reach a deal, because they seem to have a very strong excuse now and position to do shopping. If things get stuck as they are now, can you predict disappointment from the Belgrade side?

Florian Bieber: I have never been sure if Serbia was interested in a solution. I believe her government was looking forward to signaling solutions because it thus secures external support from the US and the European Union. But, you know, a status quo serves Serbia very well. First of all, he (Serbian president Aleksandar Vuciq) no longer needs to sell something in front of domestic institutions, although he is now so dominant that he could do it and is now in a perfect position to blame Kosovo for failing to negotiate. So he is looking forward to showing that he is not responsible, because it would harm him, the prospect towards the EU and his acceptance by external actors. Now he can continue and declare that he is ready, but that the other side is not a reliable partner. So I don't think he'll be disappointed by this outcome. I think it'll probably be pretty happy.