Why is the value R important in controlling the coronary?

As countries around the world try to get out of isolation, they are tracking a data known as the R value and showing how quickly coronavrus reproduces among populations.

In an interview for Radio Free Europe, German Task Force member against COVID-19, Tobias Welte, shows why it is important to keep the R value in or below 1.

The reproduction century shows how many infected patients can infect other people. If the reproduction rate is one, it shows that a patient will infect another. If the reproduction rate is three, a patient will infect three more people. What we do in Germany is calculate the average degree of reproduction. We analyze a whole week and then compare the average of that week to that one week earlier. Currently, the average breeding rate in Germany is between 0.7 and 0.8, which means one person infects less than another person.

How coronavirus is compared to other diseases, Welte pointed out that the highest level of reproduction in pulmonary diseases has to do with influence, flu, and that is between 2.3 and 3.

There are even more infectious diseases. For example, measles. The level of fruit reproduction is 10 or more. Fruit is one of the most infectious diseases. But any disease with the value of reproduction 1 or below 1 is no more contagious. With isolation, with the ban on major events, concerts, soccer matches, each major audience event, we have managed to lower the procreation rate [of coronavirus] from week to week. And when she's under one, it means you're on the safe side”, he said.

But if the R value is below 1, does it mean that the virus has been withdrawn, the German Task Force member said “this is a difficult question to answer. As we see the number of infected people dropping, the reasons for this may be some. One: maybe the transmission of the disease is no longer so powerful because of social distance, masks, and other measures of isolation. Second: Maybe even the virus is changing, it's not that contagious anymore. And third, which is very important, can be our sensitivity to the virus. Now we can be less sensitive. This is something we know from other viral diseases, especially pulmonary ones. So during the summer we're less sensitive; immune response is better than during the winter”.

Speaking of fighting coronavirus, Welte said the most important intervention is social distance, because personal contact with each other is the main factor of transmission of the disease.

What we're going to do in Germany is keep our social distance, so the distance of one and a half feet, recommended by the government. We will also continue to cancel big events and then see”.

How isolation measures can be eased and at the same time, citizens will be safe, Welte said they should be tested.

We need to test. Everyone with breathing problems should be tested. Testing is key. We need to monitor what we test. If the infection rate increases again and increases significantly, we must make new decisions for isolation. And, that's not going to be easy, because if you look at what's happening in Germany, people are too tired about the isolation measures”

Speaking about the situation in Germany, he said “I think we did good work in Germany. We got lucky. We've seen what happened in Italy and Spain, and we've been prepared, we've put up early isolation measures. We have not had the same expansion or the same explosion in hospitals as in other European countries. The Czech Republic has done the same and has been successful. But now the problems of economic loss and increasing unemployment are increasingly dominant”.

German Task Force member also talked about the possibility of the second wave of coronavirus.

I don't think the second wave will happen during the summer. As is common with respiratory viruses, because of weather conditions, chances are smaller during the summer. But at the beginning of autumn, in October or November, the second wave is possible. We won't have a vaccine before next year, or even a year after it. And if the second wave comes, we'll have problems. If the second wave is associated with other infectious diseases, then coronavirus and influence then it will be a disaster. So good vaccination programs for everything else will be one of Germany's top health policy goals”. /Rel/