Will we have social unrest after pandemic? What History Teaches

Many workers received higher wages, with fewer hours of work a day. When the French government tried to meet these requirements in 1351, it again allowed a salary hike of more than 1/3 than their pre-moriety.

Meanwhile in 1352, the English Parliament, which in 1349 had passed a law restricting pay no more than the level before the plague was taking action against employers, who had already doubled or three times the workers' salaries.

This data comes from a master historical work that describes Europe's woes in the 20th century by historian Barbara Tuhman “A distant mirror”. Published in 1978, when she thought that she reflected the contemporary woes of the 1970s, this book has again become popular, as researchers from all disciplines are looking into the history of past pandemics to understand the future ahead of the departure of David-19.

Thanks to such books, we find that pandemics have formed our civilization. There are even arguments that they have influenced the positive changes that followed. The Black Death, which appeared when the Catholic Church was involved in a bitter internal conflict, changed people's attitude toward religion, making Europeans more willing to submit to authorities.

As Tuhman “points out, the Black Death” may have been the unknown beginning of modern man, and the forerunner of Renaissance, Reformation and Enlightenment that would come centuries later. And one of the clearest lectures of the time: increasing labor force at the expense of capital.

In less than two years, the Black Death reduced Europe's population by about 40 percent. Of course, it strengthened the position of surviving workers. No more epidemics later had such a big impact, and neither will the present have any future.

But a recent U.S. Federal Reserve study suggests that even less harmful pandemics have similar effects. The study examined a dozen epidemics, from the Black Death to the 2009 H1N1 flu, which claimed the lives of at least 100,000 people.

In the end, the death toll from these pandemics was much lower, than the current estimates of Coddy-19. The academics expelled the Black Death (until now the deadliest) and the Spanish Grip of 1918, and discovered the same picture again. In the decades following a pandemic, real wages in Europe rise significantly.

These information also relates to what would be expected after a plague. So after the Black Death, wheat prices went up, so higher wages served early to absorb inflation, and they show that pandemics increase jobs for almost four decades.

These benefits are at the expense of capital; the entrepreneurs should enjoy lower profits than they anticipated. And a simple survey of economic news in recent days confirms that we can see a repeat of these models. Under emergency conditions, governments across Europe are subsidising wages, and are paying workers who are not working.

Meanwhile, workers who are required to work, while others are being distanced from society, and who were previously prepared to accept salaries and weaker working conditions, are becoming much more demanding. For example, Amazon employees, who had long complained about working conditions in company warehouses, went out to protest on the street, saying they had been forced to work close to each other, even when some of the colleagues were affected by Coved-19.

Amazon retaliated by performing 80,000 new employment. Another alarming finding of the study is that no major economic recovery can be expected. Pandemics are not like wars. The buildings and cars have not been destroyed, so there is nothing to rebuild. Several European politicians, including the prime minister of Spain, are demanding a new “Plan Marshall”, which would be the largest “mobiliation of economic and material resources in history”.

But it would be highly optimistic, to make comparisons with the former Marshall Plan, the great investment programme with which the US supported the reconstruction of Western Europe after World War II.

When researchers examined the actual rates of interest after pandemics and compared them with the impact of wars, they found that they had different effects. The natural interest rate, according to their definition, is “real returns to safe assets, which balances savings bid and investment demand, while maintaining prices in an economy”.

A larger economic activity will require higher interest rates, everything else is equal, while a weak economic activity will bring lower levels of interest with it. Meanwhile, an extraordinary study published by the Bank of England earlier this year calculated real interest rates since 1311 prior to the Black Death.

The results were clear. Wars later bring higher rates of real interest, meaning greater economic activity. Meanwhile, pandemics associate with lower rates, meaning a slower economic activity.

Intuita says there is no capital shortage to be replaced, as there would be after a classic war. Or there is probably a greater tendency to save than to invest. When the economy suffers a severe blow, many people feel that they need to save more, and consume less, which means a slower economic growth. Meanwhile, there are also significant psychological differences. After a war, winners have the satisfaction of winning, while losers commit too much energy to rebuild the country and save national honour. This is shown by the second half of the 20th century, and the economic growth of countries like Germany, Japan and South Korea.

After a pandemic, people fear God more, but no sense of triumph. The survivors often feel guilty. In these conditions, consumption and investment patterns can be detected by post-traumatic stress disorder. As investment analyst Peter Etwater says:” We learn to live with her wounds, and we move on through pain”.

The specific effects of the coronary also include greater demands on governments. Many right-wing figures are being alarmed that the era behind the Coronavirus will lead to a sharp increase in appeal to political movements left and socialist. Even more alarming, is the possibility of chaos and social unrest.

A common feature of the pandemic has been the attempt to blame foreigners. Massacres against Jews during the Black Death forced them to move to Eastern Europe. Loss of faith in the authority of the Church was misleading, as was the efforts of workers to seek their rights.

Two centuries after the plague, Europe plunged into a series of unnecessary wars. Revolutions by villagers and artisans were common, and they ended up being oppressed with blood. Like its ancestors, the current pandemic is likely to shift balance in favor of work and against capital.

The current uncertainty will intensify citizens' distrust of their governments, while intensifying the desire for governments to take a more active role in society and the market. We will be fortunate if these conflicts are resolved peacefully. World.al