The Guardian: Four scenarios of how the coronary crisis can end

In a parallel universe, a new virus has just spread to China. The country is quick to identify the pathogen, close the borders, undertake an unprecedented campaign to destroy the virus, and manage to ensure that only a few cases of virus emerge from the country. Other countries that have reported cases like South Korea, Taiwan, Hon Kong and Singapore have quickly identified all infected cases, tracked people with whom they have contacted, isolated members of the virus and banned distribution. By this three-point trial strategy, tracking, isolation the virus was successfully destroyed. Mankind is safe.

In reality, Sars-Cov-2, Coronavirus, escaped the intervention of the Chinese government's health system and was distributed worldwide. While the government did not take it seriously in its beginnings, the virus quietly spread through communities, infecting, hospitalising, and killing people. The virus is very dangerous. It's spread as easily as cough and flu, even by individuals who don't have visible symptoms, and the latest data shows that only 5% of people who get infected will need hospitalization. Of these 30% will need intensive treatment. And it's estimated that 0.6-1.4% of those infected with the virus will die.

The world now has more than a million confirmed cases of choreography. The United States has more than 400,000 cases and is approaching 13,000 deaths, has overcome China, where there have been approximately 82,000 cases and 3,000 deaths. Half of all confirmed cases are already in Europe. Low income and middle income countries are only weeks behind. While nations such as Senegal, Liberia, and Nigeria have shown themselves willing to meet this challenge, their governments are limited by lack of resources, health care, and testing capacity. Others, such as Brazil, India, and Mexico, seem to be denying what will come.

We still don't know what exact percentage of the world's population is already exposed to the virus. Without a reliable mass test that can determine whether someone who has had the virus and may be immune after passing it, it is not clear how many people have the virus but show no symptoms. The role of children on the broadcast is also unclear; children are neither immune nor appear to have been deeply affected.

Now what? Based on what I have learned from other countries' publications and responses to the virus, as the author writes in The Guardian, which is broadcast by the World.al, there are four possible scenarios about how this could end. One is for governments to come together to agree to a plan to realise a quick and free diagnostic through health care stations. All countries would simultaneously close their borders for a long, agreed time, and carry out an aggressive campaign to identify the carriers of the virus and prevent transmission.

This approach seems impossible because the virus has spread aggressively, and some countries have been unwilling to cooperate with each other. But it can become more realistic for three reasons: antiviral therapies used to prevent or treat the symptoms of Covid-19 may be weak; a vaccine may take decades to produce; and immunity may be only short - term, facing multiple waves of infection, even within the same individual. New Zealand is currently testing a version of this approach; the country has closed borders, has a total deadlock, and is ending up testing the community to eliminate the virus.

A second scenario, which seems more likely, is that the first tests for vaccines are promising. While waiting for the vaccine, countries would try to delay the spread of the virus over the next 12-18 months through permanent deadlocks. Health authorities will have to anticipate, three weeks ahead, if there are enough beds, ventilators and staff to treat those infected. On these grounds, governments can decide whether to stop or further strengthen quarantine measures.

But this scenario is far from ideal. Health systems will continue to strain, and the economic and social costs of the impasse are high. Repeated contacts can lead to mass unemployment, increasing poverty in children and social unrest. In poorer countries, more people may die from blockage than from the virus itself - malnutrition, preventable diseases from vaccines, or dehydration because of a lack of clean water.

A third and even more convenient scenario is for countries to follow the example of South Korea while waiting for a vaccine: increasing the number of tests to identify all virus infected, tracking people with whom they have contacted and quarantined them for up to three weeks. This will include large-scale planning, rapid development of a contact-finding app, and thousands of volunteers to help find data, process results and monitor quarantine. Calmer measures for physical distance can be implemented to prevent the spread of the virus and to ease pressure on health care systems.

In the absence of a valid vaccine for the future, a final scenario may include managing Covid-19, treating its symptoms rather than its cause. Doctors can perform antiviral therapies that prevent the deterioration of patients to the point where they need intensive care or prevent their death when they reach a critical stage. An even better solution would be to use the profiled therapy to prevent the appearance of Covid-19, making rapid diagnostic tests to identify those who have been infected. In countries with resources, this may be possible but for poorer countries this approach would be difficult, if not impossible.

There is no easy solution. The months to come will require a fragile balance between public health interests, society and the economy, with governments to rely on one another more than ever before. While half the battle will be in the development of means to treat the virus ʹa vaccine, antiviral therapy and rapid diagnostic tests . the other half will be the product of sufficient doses, the distribution of these in a just and equal manner, and the securing of their arrivals to each person worldwide.