IMF scary numbers: Every Albanian is expected to become poor

In nominal terms, each individual's per capita income, with current ($ per capita) prices expected to drop to $4,898, down from $5,323 a year ago.

In total, according to IMF figures, the country is expected to lose $1.24 billion this year, amounting to 8% of annual revenues in 2019.

This tendency, the decline in income per capita, is being found worldwide because of the consequences it produced in global quarantine economies aimed at preventing the infection of Covid-19 and the uncertainty that are still continuing, raising many uncertainty about the future.

In the region, Albania (-425 USD) and Montenegro (-892 USD) are expected to have the highest income decline per capita, due to the highest economic contraction envisioned for these countries, which are related to tourism.

For Macedonians the loss will be minimal (90 dollars less) and for Bosniaks it will reach -253 dollars per capita. For Kosovo citizens, the loss is - $287 per capita, with a drop of 6.5%. In the region, the state that has been more resistant to the Devov-19 crisis is Serbia. The latter is among the small in the world, where the IMF predicts per capita income will not fall, rather it will easily increase, by $90.

Albania and Kosovo rank among the poorest states in Europe, (after the former Soviet Union states). Out of 192 states, Albania is 98th on the list and Kosovo 108th (4,428) USD per capita for 2020, according to IMF estimates. The highest per capita income in the region is Montenegro, at 77th in the world (8,825), almost twice the size of Albanian-speaking lands. Then ranks Serbia, the 80th (7,382USD), northern Macedonia and 90th (6,018), Bosnia and Herzegovina 92nd (6,015 USD).

The Fund, in the last economic mirror of October, estimates that the strongest contraction in the region is expected to have Montenegro with -12%, followed by Croatia, with -9% and then ranks Albania at the same levels as Kosovo (7.5% each). The three coastal states (Croatia, Montenegro, Albania) have a high dependence on tourism, which has been among the most hit sectors by pandemic. The crisis is expected to feel less Serbia, which is projected to have a drop of -2.5%. Macedonia will shrink by -5.4%, while Bosnia will contract -6.5%.

Earlier, the World Bank in its latest autumn Economic Review report for Europe and Central Asia, records in the section for Albania that the crisis is increasing poverty, mainly through increasing unemployment.

According to bank estimates, despite measures taken, moderate poverty (the percentage of the population living at less than $5.5 per day, estimated according to purchasing power equality, which eliminates price differences between countries), is expected to increase by about 5 percentage points.

Currently, this index according to the Bank's signs is 35.6%. After the crisis, around 41.5% of the population will live on less than $5.5 a day (according to purchasing power equality).

According to the World Bank report, the closure of businesses, reduced operations and disruptions in supply chains damaged production. The tourism sector, a key factor of growth, has been very affected. Consumer and investment decisions have been delayed.