Turkey: With Libya's help in gas treasury

The Turkish Parliament made the decision: Turkey will send soldiers to the civil war in Libya. President Erdogan does not come to the aid of only the Libyan partner with this step, he has power interests first and foremost in mind.

Prime Minister Fajis al-Saradsh's Libyan government will be militarily supported by Turkey. But the Libyan parliament voted Saturday against agreements reached with Turkey. The government is in the midst of a civil war with rival General Chalifa Haftar. With the Libyan National Army, LNA, Haftari tries to take over the capital Tripoli.

How does Turkey argue the military mission?

Turkey alone has been in a deep economic crisis since the summer of 2018: why the Turkish government, just in such times and after the intervention in Syria, begins a second high-cost military operation, which is why it is speculating in Turkey.

President Recep Tayip Erdogan, in his words, is only interested in protecting the legally elected government from „the battlebar”, Haftar. Ankara acts at the invitation of Al-Saradshi. In November, it was agreed with the Turkish government for military co-operation. But Erdogan is clearly not only interested in protecting the Libyan government.

What does the Turkish government want to accomplish?

The popularity of the Turkish president is currently on the decline. The monetary and economic crisis has brought down the number of its supporters. In the local elections in March 2019, he suffered losses in several important Turkish cities -- the first significant failure in the president's success-painted career.

To confront this trend, Erdogan uses a proven tool meanwhile: it activates Turkish population nationalist feelings by introducing Turkey to crisis regions as a strong regional power. With this demonstration the government can gain greater support in the population, especially in conservative religious circles.

Even the founder of the Turkish state, Kemal Mustafa Atatürk at the time of the Ottoman Empire, has fought in Libya, reiterated Erdogan. Turkish military operations in northern Syria and Libya take place in former territories of the great empire, and this awakens dreams of former glory to many Turkish voters. There are rumours that Erdogan will hold prematurely, since this year, the presidential elections envisioned in 2023. With nationalist rhetoric he aims now to unite his supporters.

What connection does the military mission in Libya have in eastern Mediterranean natural gas?

The Turkish government with military operation also pursues economic interests. In the agreement, which Erdogan concluded with Al-Saradshi's internationally recognised government in November, it is not only about military support from Ankara. With Tripoli agreed, even for international maritime borders to be deployed in Turkey's favour, in order for Ankara to have access to the rich gas reserves of the Cypriot coast.

Large gas reserves on the southern coast of Cyprus were discovered about 10 years ago. Such a treasure has great potential for conflict because the third largest island in the Mediterranean has been divided since 1974 in the Turkish and Cypriot parts. Both parts of the island make claims to exploit this gas field economically. The Greek part of the Republic of Cyprus is based on international maritime law, which every country with sea access provides „to an exclusive economic zone”, which runs up to 200 miles to sea. All the natural resources in this marine area can be economically exploited. This regulation is very complicated in the Cyprus case, because Ankara sees the Turkish „Party of Northern Cyprus” as a sovereign state, with its economic zone.

The international community, on the other hand, does not recognise the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” as a separate state. Therefore, Turkey is not considered by other states bordering the Mediterranean in exploiting these gas reserves. Just on the day that the Turkish parliament agreed to military intervention in Libya, other Mediterranean countries -- Cyprus, Greece -- Israel signed an agreement in Athens on the „EastMed” gas project. This 1900km pipeline, designed to pump gas off the coast of Cyprus and Israel, will bring it to Greece and from there to other European countries, such as Italy. Ankara has never been on the negotiating table. Erdogan has stressed several times that he will not allow Turkey to be excluded from such projects. The deal with the Libyan government will have to remove Ankara from isolation within Mediterranean countries.

What is Russia's role?

In late October, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Erdogan reached an agreement in Sotci to complete the military operation in northern Syria and, as much as possible, other fighting in the region. As in northern Syria, the Kremlin is an important actor in North Africa. But in the Libyan civil war, Moscow supports the opposing party, the rebel army of General Haftar. A difficult meeting between Erdogan and Putin will take place next Wednesday (08.01), in which the two heads of state are able to negotiate for Libya and possibly set the milestones for the future.