When will Chancellor Angela Merkel leave the post

In early April, German Chancellor Angela Merkel removed two paintings from her office and sent them to a Berlin museum. It's Emil Nolde's „Twestes” and „Chruste with flowers”, property of the Prussian Cultural Heritage Foundation that is exposed by September as part of an exhibition that deals with the painter's political Africa with nationalism. For this reason, Merkel will not hang her paintings again in the autumn. What stands out is that Merkel no longer wants more pictures in the office. The federal „Kancelar has concluded, that initially the white wall without a new painting looks beautiful and will leave it thus”, said the Chancellor's office.

Discussions Behind the Corners in Berlin

After 14 years at the head of the government, Angela Merkel has entered the career epilogue. The mayor's post, she has already handed him over. Annegret Kramp-Carrenbauer is the new party chairman and it is not a secret that Merkel wants as the successor. But when? And in what way? This is being discussed more and more loudly in political Berlin since the moment Chancellor Merkel is nearly missing in the current European election campaign. First with coldness, and that's the feature of the science scholar Merkel, it's a logical result, that the former chairman no longer appears in the universe of the new party chairman. Merkel is leaving space for the Kramp-Carrenbauer to generate its positions and gain the political burden it needs.

CDU turns left again

It seems the AKK, as Annegret Kramp-Carrenbauer calls itself, is following its path and seeks to change the course of the conservative party. It's not about major reforms, but you can't help but realize that the new chairman is pursuing an increasingly conservative policy. As on the topic of migration, homosexual marriage and European integration 50mp-Carrenbauer is less liberal than predecessor Merkel.

This enjoys the conservative wing of the CDU and along with it Friedrich Merz, who last autumn fought for the mayor's post. Now he seems more often at the side of his competitor, and it seems that both are creating a good relationship. Instead of Merkel, The AKK appears in the European campaign side by side of Friedrich Merz, which does not hide that under a Kramp-Karrenbauer Chancellor, he would willingly receive a post. But for that, the AKK has to enter the Chancellor's office once.

Social Democrat Party, SPD not close to AKK

Officially Angela Merkel maintains the plan, remaining in office until the end of the mandate in 2021. But behind the scenes are talking about possible scenarios in order to offer Kramp-Carrenbauer good start-up chances. Such a shift of personnel to the Chancellor's office has never been before, and this transition is not that simple in Germany. Chancellors chosen by Bundestag. That's where the CSU and CSU have the majority. The Social Democrats, the SPD, have already indicated that Kramp-Carrenbauer would not, in any case, become Chancellor with their vote. With that, they want to prevent Merkel from leaving office prematurely -- for the AKK to create a bonus of hers and with this advantage to come up in the 2021 elections.

No longer have major coalition support

But with that, the SP would risk new elections. No one would want such a scenario with the Social Democrats, because polls are not promising this party. For months, the SPD does not exceed the 17% limit, 3% less than in the last parliamentary elections. According to polls even CDU/ The CSU has dropped 3% compared to the last elections. So even the great coalition can't create the majority anymore.

Annegret Kramp-Carrenbauer could try that with the liberal party, The FDP and the Greenbridge will establish a three-party coalition. Most of this exists, but we remember that after the 2017 elections, the three-party coalition failed. Two years later it could be Green and not the FDP to cause problems. If in 2017 they barely reached 9%, they have now caught the top of the polls, about 20%. And how could they not want new choices to increase their power?

December Decision

And perhaps in the end is the SPD who will decide how long it will be in office, Angela Merkel. This question has been answered by Merkel, that it will remain until the end of the legislature. Officially by the end of 2021. But will they stay together so long, the CSU, CSU and the SPD, which together actually create the big coalition? In the coalition agreement, it is said that in half of the mandate there will be a balance and will be decided on the continuation of the coalition.
The SPD will do so at the party congress in December 2019. And what atmosphere will rule at this congress depends on the results of the elections in the Lande. On May 26th, European elections are held, after which elections are held in Bremen, in September in Brandenburg and Saxony, in October in Tiringen. For Social Democrats with catastrophic results in previous elections polls means- tremble and hope.

New paintings in the Chancellor's office?

The poor results would strengthen in the party those forces that opposed the big coalition with the CDU/ CSU. They are not few. If they reach the majority of envoys, they may force the party's leadership to leave the coalition against its will. The SP would thus lead itself into opposition. And that meant the end of Merkel's era. Theoretically she could try to create a three-party coalition, but that's unlikely. Right now would be Annegret Kramp-Carrenbauer's watch. With or without a choice, she could enter the Chancellor's office as early as 2020. And he would probably hang new paintings on white walls. / DW/