Three factors detect achieving Kosovo agreement

Balkan Development Policy Group analyst Naim Rashit, in interview for DW, talks about what a final Kosovo- Serbia and why there is no international unification of this agreement.

DW: Mr. Rashit has a debate everywhere in both the international and local arena over the Kosovo issue in relation to Serbia. There are differing attitudes about dialogue and the flow it needs to have, but concrete steps still do not. How do you see these developments?

Naim Rashit: Dialogue and consultation are under way and some form of drafting, or consulting a possible agreement is under way. Official meetings are not being held, but there is growing pressure for formal dating to begin this month, or until April or May. The US and the EU have agreed to start formal meetings, but Serbia is conditioning the start of these meetings with the removal of the tax imposed by the Kosovo government on Serbian products. How this situation will continue, it is unknown, but I do not see there will be a tax removal from Pristina. Right now, though, it is very difficult to know what is going on with the dialogue.

It mentions an agreement that, as you say, is being drafted or consulted, but without formal dating. How did you see this deal?

It's too hard to predict what that deal is. But what is known is that the cabinet of the chief of European diplomacy and the US are working intensively with the two presidents Thaci and Vuciq to bring their positions closer, but few are known in the public and the less is being known in public, the chances of an agreement are being undermined.

Who is undermining the likelihood, nontransparency, non-unification of the Kosovo political class, the rigid position of Serbia, Kosovo, or what?

There are three factors. The first is how an agreement is made to ensure recognition of Kosovo from Serbia, so is Serbia willing to go to the end with recognition and will accept this agreement and all those in the dialogue doubt whether Serbia will conclude the agreement. The second factor is: The international factor where there are major differences, and because of these major differences, it is being worked in a much smaller district. And the third factor is the Kosovo factor that has huge differences in terms of a final agreement on what it will look like. So there are three segments, besides the first, the other two have not happened before either in the Vienna process or elsewhere.

Mr. Rashit at the latest Security Council meeting for Kosovo was the German ambassador to this organisation that voiced stance against changing Kosovo borders- Serbia and said that Serbia's EU membership only passes through a legally binding comprehensive agreement? This German stance, reiterated by Prime Minister Haradinaj, which to a degree is not supported by President Thaci for his approach to dialogue. Is there hope for an unification of both Kosovo and the international arena over the Kosovo issue?

I can't believe there will be a unifying attitude on the international factor. What is happening in the international and local factors is that they are not believing there will be an agreement, even with modification of borders, even recognition and a comprehensive agreement between the two countries. What is happening with Germany is that not believing an agreement can be reached now, they have only begun to think about what dialogue would look like under a new EU leadership expected this year. In Kosovo the differences between leaders over the final solution do not believe they will quickly fade. I don't think there will be support for one leader or another because of positions. So even the U.S. wants this process to be as comprehensive as possible and to have democratic legitimacy, because it cannot be overcome in this situation.

Mr. Rashit has an internal perception in Kosovo that all pressure for blocking dialogue is falling on the Kosovo side, not on Serbia. How appropriate is this conclusion?

The perception for now is that Kosovo is failing to be prepared for a process of dialogue. Never in Kosovo's history has Kosovo been accused of failing the dialogue process. But, in Brussels, Berlin in the US Vienna, it is now talking about how Kosovo leaders are not supporting the dialogue, because all international efforts are for a more intensive process, while, in the end, it remains to see whether there is agreement or not. On the other hand, after these developments in Kosovo, Serbian President Vuciq is saying he is ready for agreement, but it is Albanians who are not ready and he has convinced the international factor to do so. So I think there will be an international cost for Kosovo's position, not cost due to compromise requirements, but because of the unwillingness to act as a state that makes decisions related to dialogue.

But in reality Serbia do you think it is ready for agreement with Kosovo?

I, I suspect so much. Serbia can be ready for a very radical agreement, I don't believe Serbia is ready for an agreement within Kosovo's borders. Perhaps it would accept a kind of Brussels 2, a kind of renegotiation of agreements, with a kind of autonomy for the north, not even offering recognition of Kosovo in an inclusive way. Perhaps Serbia would offer agreements with the partition of Kosovo in order to recognise Kosovo, but it would be too difficult to accept in Kosovo, and I do not believe that there will be political courage in Kosovo to accept it with a unilateral division of the territory. And the bottom line is that the problem in Serbia except domestic developments is Russia, which Serbia and the Serbian president are not aware of how to behave. I have the impression that there has been continuing efforts by Serbia to get Russia's approval of an agreement with Kosovo and that it is in panic and that it is very unclear what Russia will do with Serbia until the final of dialogue with Kosovo.