What it is and can NorwegianModel succeed for the Western Balkans

Gerald Knaus needs to know what's going on. He is the director of the European Initiative for Stability, a highly influential “tank” in Brussels. Knaus has been the main mastermind of the agreement between the EU and Turkey for refugees, which significantly reduced the refugee tide in the Balkans. In the published text last week, Knaus calls it an end to torture (coup degrâce) vetos, with which Emmanuel Macron blocked the start of talks with Skopje and Tirana, and actually froze the entire EU enlargement process.

If the approach of the Western Balkans had been a bull, writes Knaus, then numerous dots over the years have killed the animal gradually. Macro appeared as a matador to end the torment. The EU would have to offer all EU states access to a single market (joined) such as Norway or Iceland”, the influential analyst adds.

Macro stopped playing

Knaus is not alone. Speculations are growing, saying that the zero hour of European politics in the Balkans has dropped, the time to bury the long-dead concept of enlargement and find something new. Something less than enlargement, but enough to appeal to keep the small Balkan states in the EU court. The newspaper Večernje Novosti, referring to anonymous sources, informed that Paris and Berlin are preparing the bid for spring. In May, leaders of the countries of the region will gather at the EU summit in Zagreb. Will the Norwegian model be on the table?

Macron's “The whole enlargement process has been crushed. I think that was his goal”, says Andreas Ernst, experienced journalist of Neue Zürcher Zeitung, who for years has been a correspondent of this newspaper in Belgrade. „But the good of this is that the false nature of the relations of the EU and the Western Balkans has become evident.” Macron was willing to assume the role of the matador. Some say, because it fears strengthening Le Pen in his country, 58 per cent of French people oppose EU enlargement. Others think that Macro is taking the Western Balkans hostage until he completes his vision of Europe.

Among the lines it is read that the French president wants an EU of some concentration speed or circles. The core would burden around the Paris-Berlin axis, abroad would be the integrated market countries, and all outside the associated countries, among them the Western Balkans. Macro is not alone. He received discrete support from the Netherlands and Denmark. The criticisms from Berlin for Macroni come with a winking eye ? We had to allow Skopje and Tirana to open the talks, however, they will not enter the EU for at least ten years. This German game, Ernst says, is even more effective.

The rules, Swiss journalist says, are for years like this: The EU pretends to take Balkan countries as a member, and the leaderships of these countries as if they implement reforms. This could have lasted another ten years or forever. This whole theater and political language for European perspective and European values have now received heavy shocks and is thus good”, he adds to the DW. „Now must come the new offer and it must be good.

“Justification for Balkan rulers?

When two decades of European roads seem to end in deadlock, it is not easy to understand it overnight. All political careers, scenes of nongovernmental organisations and analysts have stood on the idea that the road to the European Union is the only possible one, and if we all make efforts, it ends with full membership. Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, used a football analogy: the judge changes rules during the game, the terrain is slippery and tactics must be changed, but the strategic goal remains the same entry into the EU. His Macedonian counterpart, Stevo Pendarovski, even requested a regional summit, in which all options to European integration would be rejected”.

This is the moment to celebrate nationalists and Eurosceptics throughout the region in style: Did we tell you the EU doesn't love us? „Initially, he was deputy chairman and deputy of the new party in Serbia, and now in Podgorica he is the leader of the small party, Crnogorska. „No one from the EU has said we will not be accepted if we accept all criteria. The illusion that the EU behaves dishonestly, tries to create governing structures, hide reform simulations and justify the lack of success in the negotiations process” claims Pavicevic.

On the Focus of Analysts

Andreja Stojkovski, political analyst from Skopje, agrees. He is particularly nervous when the policy of enlargement is declared „failed”. There are states in the Western Balkans that are committed to reform, some that conduct reforms from time to time, and what they say from time to time, that they are doing something”, Stojkovski adds to the DW.

Pavicevic and Stojkovski conclude it would be fatal, give up the promise, which the EU has given to Balkan countries in Thessaloniki in 2003, that the EU is not complete without the Balkans. The process of entering this space brings stability and the prospect of establishing order, and brings Europe further strengthening. Everything else would be a reckless” experiment, Pavicevic adds.

It should be stressed, however, that Macro does not justify it with lack of reforms, but with EU internal problems. Under the already strict European Commission criteria, Albania and Northern Macedonia have deserved to open the talks, as Kosovo has long deserved visa liberalisation. Instead of walking in paths beaten by Bulgaria, Romania or Croatia that had much smoother criteria now offered to the Western Balkans, something for which the media are still looking for the best name. It's about privileged partnerships, but more often about the Norwegian model.

“is not a loss model”

What is the Norwegian model? The Nordic country is beside Iceland and Lichtenstein member of the European Economic Zone (EEP), a mechanism established in 1992, in which all EU members are part. One option is, when Great Britain finally leaves the EU, to remain part of the EPP again.

The market is open, there is freedom of movement, there is no customs except for food and drink, products that are highly subsidised in the EU, so Norway will not fully open the door. Kosovo's „Passport would have the same value in EEP as that of Norwegian and Serbian ljivovica would have the same access to the European market as Swiss brandy”, writes Kosovo publicist Veton Surroi for Koha Ditore. „A Belgian investor would have the same judicial security in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and northern Macedonia as in Iceland. ”

This is not a losing model for the Balkans” at all, says journalist Andreas Ernst. It is better to take small steps of integration in the short term than to hope for EU membership ten or twenty years”.

Gerald Knaus in the text for the European Initiative for Stability proposed that Balkan states gradually integrate into European funds. Like. If Serbia were to exemplaryly regulate the fishing sector, then in this area it could be treated almost as part of the EU. And if the situation gets worse, it could be excluded again from this sector. These are lures that could make Macrono and government officials in the Western Balkans come up with such a proposal. Vucinqiki and neighbours, currently busy with the Small Schengen plans, would gain prospects to quickly introduce their countries into the market of half a billion people. On the other hand, the French president would have chance to bring down the history of the EU's classic enlargement, at least to a more appropriate occasion.

Latmotive of numerous criticisms in the direction of Macroni is that he is handing over the region to Russia, China, Turkey. The geopolitical side of it is impossible to cross without seeing the battle in the Western Balkans”, said Anna Wieslander of the Atlantic Council for New York Times. „Finance either doesn't see it, or it's acceptable to him. ”

Swiss journalist Andreas Ernst is convinced that the Swiss model is enough for the EU not to leave the Balkans to other players. „Acesses in the EEP is the essential one here is access to infrastructure funds, it's an instrument that makes Chinese infrastructure projects or the deal with the Eurasian Union less attractive. So this has power and influence for the EU”, he says of the DW.

The count has many unknowns. Is Germany willing to accept? How will Balkan Democrats sell this story to citizens? Is it better for the Western Balkans to have the trumpet in hand or the dove in the branch? However, the status quo is broken and there is no vacuum in politics. Something new is coming. A regional connoisseur recalled these days the words attributed to Churchill: „It is a pity to waste a good crisis.” / DW