What is behind growing Turkish interest in Serbia?

Numerous visits to the highest level and increased economic activities between Turkey and Serbia testify that reports between the two countries are very good. Serbia's President Aleksandar Vuciq ranks Turkey among Serbia's most important partner states. The concrete figures, which were made public at the start of Erdogan's two-day visit to Serbia, confirm this. Trade exchange has reached 1.2 billion euros annually. Turkish firms employ about 8,000 workers in Serbia, while Turkish investments in Serbia have reached $1m in 2011 at $200m in 2018. In the same year from Serbia to Turkey, about 100,000 tourists have gone.

Compared to Serbia's economic reports with other countries, these are still modest figures, the two presidents declared. But they added that reports between Serbia and Turkey have never been better. Vuciq and Erdogan agree there is room for further improvement of the reports.

Turkey in the Balkans

Belgrade Faculty of Political Sciences professor Dragan Djukanovic tells of the DW that “following the cooling of reports in 2013 and the break of Ankara-Belgrade-Sarajevo trilate, now Turkey's reports with the Western Balkans have been strengthened. It appears this has to do with Turkey's defence role towards the Bosniak factor and now also improve reports with Belgrade”. Djukanovic says Turkey's interest does not stop in Serbia alone, because “Balkan is important as a whole for Turkey”. The closest political reports are with Bosniaks, to some extent with the Albanian political elite. “But Turkey understands Serbia as a very important partner, if not the most important partner in the Western Balkans, the professor claims.

Internal Policy

The high level and density of Turkish presidential visits to Serbia is seen as part of Erdogan's domestic political activities, Naim Leo Beshiri thinks. President Erdogan currently does not have many friends abroad. So this visit is used for benefit in domestic politics in Turkey, because all these visits are used for internal propaganda“. On the other hand, Turkey is exploiting the empty space in the Balkans for increased influence. “At a time when the US and the EU cannot agree on the important issues of this region, Turkey is trying to enhance its influence. Erdogan is trying to present himself as a factor of resistance in reports between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina”, Beshiri claims.

Turkey's influence

Belgrade expects Erdogan and Turkey to play a positive role in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also in Sandzak, for resolving conflicting issues. Turkey has an impact on Bosniaks, although the entire region is concerned at the moment with Belgrade-Pristina reports”, Djukanovic says. He thinks it is hard to give the final findings, “but the Bosniaks still remain closer to Ankara than to Brussels, which in a way hinders the European perspective of the Western Balkans“.

Turkey is interested in B-H's <x0 territorial integrity and good reports between Belgrade and Sarajevo”, Beshiri claims, adding that Erdogan has achieved what the West has failed to improve reports between Belgrade and Sarajevo”.

The West is critical of strengthening Turkish influence in this region, but also of Russia's increasingly visible presence in the Western Balkans. So Turkey's activities are viewed with reservations. The “West is concerned with increasing Turkish influence, but also Russian and Chinese in this region. This will certainly apply both to the issue and to the process of bringing Serbia closer to the EU”, Djukanovic claims.

Bad Association

Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, has added meetings with Erdogan and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has been commented as a “society with a lack of democracy and authoritarian tender”. Naim Leo Beshiqi says “Serbia is viewed as a bad student who is associated with other bad students”. Serbia has friends even in the EU, but looked on long-term paths, the EU could express concerns because of Vuciqi's approach to Erdogan and Orban. “on short paths, Serbia can benefit from these meetings of non-democratic leaders, but this is a disaster on long-term trails“, the director of the Institute for European Affairs finds.

DW