Failed: Visas may not be removed in 2019

Experts warn that the challenges awaiting the European Union in 2019 will most likely continue to delay Kosovo's hopes of ensuring a visa-free regime and will continue to hold its citizens in long lines waiting at embassy doors.

They add that another delay in obtaining visa liberalisation would further damage the damaged EU reputation in Kosovo -- once the EU's biggest supporter in the Balkans -- and throughout the region.

I doubt that visa liberalisation with Kosovo will progress further in 2019,” told BIRN, Tena Prelec, a researcher at the University of Sasex and the London School of Economy and Political Sciences.

Jehona Lushaku, a professor at Political Sciences at Pristina University and an analyst for European Integration, also believes Kosovo's chances for visa-free regime with the EU are decreasing.

The visa liberalisation was more real during 2018 than in 2019,” she told BIRN.

Prelec calls this delay unfortunate “”, as granting the visa-free regime would represent a concrete gesture from the EU that would have been welcomed beyond Kosovo as “a sign for the entire region that the EU not only requires, but also gives”.

Igor Soltes, European Parliament rapporteur for Kosovo, is a little more optimistic.

“Anything is possible and we should not lose hope that visa liberalisation will happen this year,” said Soltes for BIRN.

He stressed that until the Council of Ministers gives a green light for a visa-free regime, negotiations between the European Council and the European Parliament cannot be developed.

But Soltes hopes visa liberalisation, as well as other key issues for EU-Western Balkans relations, will stay high on the European Parliament agenda after the elections in May.

Green light is followed by a backlog

Europe told Kosovo that visa requirements would fall if it completed its home duties with Montenegro, completed in March 2018, and a strengthened fight against crime and corruption.

The expectations grew even more after the European Parliament voted in favour of visa liberalisation in September.

However, hopes quickly waned. During his visit to Pristina in December, Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn advised Kosovo citizens to show patience for several more months before the visa-free regime was approved. According to him, the process would be finalised by 2020, “or perhaps earlier, but do not hold me hostage to this”, Hahn said.

After the positive report on Kosovo by the European Commission, it was left to the Council of Ministers to decide, which according to Hahn é was taking most of the time.

Prelec points to several reasons for the delay. “Viti 2019 will offer many other pressing issues that need to be addressed by the EU, so it is likely that visa liberalisation with Kosovo and the overall enlargement will be left for the next end,” said Prelec.

The European Parliament's elections in May, according to Preleci, will probably restore a parliament to which the main centre's parties have weakened and “with possible incentives for parliament to show that it supports immigration control”.

Neither is the fact that Romania, one of the five EU nations that have not recognised Kosovo, has taken over the EU presidency, is of no help.

For all these reasons, we can expect to see the first concrete steps in this overall direction in 2020. I'd be happy if I'm wrong and I hope the brakes are taken from people who put the right importance to this issue,” she said.

Croatia's Tuhina, a journalist from Kosovo to Brussels, also believes visa liberalisation for Kosovo is unlikely to happen in 2019.

This year's first quarter will be without debates about enlargement or immigration due to the upcoming European elections, and since both topics are very unpopular, no one in the current elite is willing to engage in anything that would provoke a debate during the electoral campaign,” she told BIRN.

Tuhina stressed that even though the European Commission concluded that Kosovo had met all criteria for visa liberalisation, some EU member states still have reservations regarding the second condition, the fight against organised crime and corruption.

“If some member states are unwilling to provide visas for Kosovars, this element could be used,” said Tuhina.

She explains that France has been particularly tough in its stance and “has successfully worked to create a so-called blocking minority to stop the issue”.

“Things can take another direction only if French President Emmanuel Macron (who has rejected visa removal for Kosovo) changes his position after the elections in May,” she said.

Tuhina does not think that Romania's EU presidency would be a very big problem if one of the biggest countries, such as Germany and France, put the issue on the agenda.

Moreover, this could turn into an advantage, as Romania will vote in favour, as it is the country that formally puts this issue on the vote,” she added.

Soltes, European Parliament rapporteur for Kosovo who does not rule out visa liberalisation this year, says it is up to Kosovo to hold bilateral talks and convince EU member states that they must have a visa-free regime.

The question is that the European Commission and the European Parliament gave consent and a green light, so we all expect member states to continue with the process,” said Soltes.

He also hopes that Romania, despite its refusal to recognise Kosovo, will see the importance of granting visa liberalisation.

Romania's “Presidence has defined four key areas in which it wants to focus on its presidency of the European Council. One is a so-called “Europe, a stronger global actor”, under which they have determined the importance of supporting EU enlargement in the Western Balkans and better co-operation with this region,” noted Soltes.

Delay sends wrong message to entire Balkans

But Soltes also acknowledged that the process is likely to be postponed, as there are no plenary sessions scheduled from late April until early July.

“This is another obstacle to the visa-free regime”, he said, finishing as soon as Kosovo gets a visa-free regime, the better.

Jehona Lushaku, professor and analyst from Pristina, says it is difficult to imagine that EU countries can make that decision before the May elections, given the lack of popularity of issues related to immigration among EU voters.

“This should not be an argument, but at the current political moment in the EU, this fact is important and explains why the decision will not be prosecuted for voting before the May elections,” she told BIRN.

She and other experts say the delay would even more damage the already wavering image of the EU in Kosovo and the rest of the region.

“Trust in the European perspective has been shaken in Kosovo,” Lucak stressed. “Because it has failed to make a decision on visa liberalisation, confidence in the EU has been totally dimmed. ”

Tena Prelec agrees with the thought that the withdrawal from visa liberalisation, despite that Kosovo is meeting the established criteria, is seen as a complete betrayal in Kosovo.

This betrayal of expectations “has prompted a large amount of anger and resentment against EU”, she added.

“This is disturbing as Kosovo has long been seen as the most pro- The EU in the Western Balkans.

If EU leaders want to keep the Western Balkans on a pro-European road, this bitter experience has become an autogong. ”