China enters the Balkans but is it dangerous?

When Western media talk about the need for an EU integration of Western Balkan countries, various dangers are regularly called to mind. All these countries started with Macedonia in the East and Serbia in the north, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, etc., are perceived as the source of problems. At the same time, the Western Balkans are also seen as the scene of geostrategic clashes of so-called “global player” global players. China, an engaged and active actor, has been added to traditional powers, the EU or Russia, in recent years. In the region this power is identified with an active power. China follows “geostrategic interest”, this is common fear, especially in Brussels. At a time that all the dangers of warnings remain rampant, hardly anyone determines China's concrete political advantage in its engagement in the Western Balkans.

China A Capitalist on the World Market

Otherwise it's diagnosis, when it comes to the economic interests of China in the region. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping published the “one Bent-one Road” known as the New Silk Road “, which envisions the development of several infrastructure projects aimed at fast and cheaply transporting goods from China to rich western markets. As an important part of this transit are the countries of Southeast Europe, which are now and again spoken of by “The Silk Road of the Balkans”.

The first major investment in this direction was made in Greece. In 2009, COCO, the largest Chinese shipping and port concert invested in the port of Piraeus more than 250m euros, later another 650m euros to secure a majority stake in the port. The most successful investment because Piraeus today ranks among the 10 most active ports in Europe.

Chinese conuncture program

Meanwhile, Chinese firms invest in all Southeast European countries in billions of suspects. Direct investments should be set apart from credit lending, says Jens Bastian, independent economy analyst and one of the best connoisseurs of Chinese investments in Southeast Europe. The “except for Greece and Serbia, in all other countries, is about credit profitable to respective governments. ”

Giving these loans is related to conditions that create a closed credit “ ”. Chinese banks provide the loan on the condition that orders receive Chinese firms. They bring workers and materials from China to build a bridge or highway, such as Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. “This is a kind of conuncturous program for the Chinese economy that has overcapacity”, Bastian says.

Purpose: Western Markets

Chinese economic interests are clear: Western markets. In this context, Western Balkan countries take on the role of a <x0port that must be opened to enter Europe”, according to Bastian. So it invests in infrastructure, roads, bridges, railways, ports. But the volume of these investments is not too large. Jens Bastian says that “if you see how many EU investments flow into different credit programmes for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, Croatia or Hungary, it is understood that these are several times the amount that you want and is ready to invest in China. ”

Equally large is the difference in the amounts Chinese investors give to Balkan countries compared to Western ones. Chinese firms have great interest in developed technology, so they are ready to put their hands deep into their pockets. If Chinese investment in the port of Piraeus amounted to 1 billion euros, only to buy the German robot manufacturer Kuka in 2016 offered 4.5 billion euros. In Germany alone, the Chinese have invested 13.7 billion euros, a record value. German investments in China also mark the record. 70 billion euros.

Chinese capital and alert west

So it's about classic capital investments in a global market. Everyone invests in money where they care. And everyone has one goal: To position themselves best on the global market to increase the profit. Where it is invested, in China, in Germany or in Southeast Europe, this is second-hand. The truth is that the strongest Western countries have more opportunities to protect” the sensational spheres of their economies. So the German government blocked the purchase of chip-Evem Airron by Chinese investors

The governments of Western Balkan countries have a more unfavourable position in this direction because they are more dependent on China's investments, says Jens Bastian. “Kina seeks in this region those economic partners who have a weak intermediation position.” This enables Beijing to open new transportation routes with relatively little cost, according to Bastian.

However, it remains unclear whether and what a political agenda lies behind Chinese investments. “Kina has no interest, unlike Russia, to promote a change of government in these countries”, Bastian says. It seems that the current Chinese geostrategic interest has only economic nature, as a transit part for rich western markets. And the fact that China doesn't give lessons on human rights or media freedom is most welcomed by the governments of some Western Balkan countries. / DW/