Alarm figures: Albania is heading towards progress

Miscombined factors from immigration and falling births, along with indifference to face the consequences, will make the transition of the population difficult.

Some sectors, such as agriculture and fason, have begun to suffer labour shortages while the country's population has entered a rapid aging process. The United Nations population division ranked Albania as one of the ten countries with the fastest population aging process during the period 2000-2011. The number of seniors over 60 has increased by 7.3% in this period. Albania ranks eighth in the world after the United States, Japan, Guadalupe, Malta, Martinique, South Korea and Curacaos for fast-growing global in the years to come.

In 2017, Albanians over 60 years of age this year numbered 93 thousand more in number than in 2011 when Census became the last. This age group now accounts for 19% of the total population of 15.4% in 2011. In 2030, according to the United Nations projection, the population over 60 will be 26.6% of the total population by normal projections without severe immigration shocks.

In some developing countries Albania, among them, is aging faster than in other developed countries. In France, for example, aging took 115 years in Sweden, 85 years, Australia 73 years, and the United States 45 years. During these years, the population of over 60 increased from 7 to 14%.

In countries that are now in transition, this process has occurred in less than 23 years. Projections show that for Brazil and Colombia, doubling the number of elderly will take only 22 years. This new approach of the population is producing a new demographic transition for these countries that will have to adapt very quickly to a new population structure.

Today, developing countries will have to adapt very quickly to the situation in a time when they have a much lower per capita income than developed countries face these challenges. The number of young countries in the population has declined markedly over time. While 39 countries with about 5% of the population over 60 were counted in 2017, only Nigeria will have persons over 60 years of age - only 5% of total.

The numerous births in 1950, more elders in 2020

Countries that have experienced a baby boom during 1950-1960 will have a strong rate of population aging over the next decade, in conditions where birth rates have declined. In Albania, the fertility index was 6.8 births per woman in the 1960s, this report dropped to 2.1 a woman in 2001 and 1.7 in 2011. The synthetic fertilization index (ISF), which shows the average number of children expected to give birth to a woman at a reproductive age, marks 1,48 children for 2017.

This means that in 100 females, 148 children are expected to be born if group age rates are those of the reference year, 2017. According to INSTAT, this index is below the rate of replacement, 2.1 children per woman, meaning that a couple cannot replace themselves. Lindibility has fallen for 20 years of age and 25 years of age 29 and for older age groups has undergone mild growth.

Due to large births in 1960, the number of elderly people in Albania will rise rapidly in the following decade, in Sweden, total fertility was only 2.2 births per woman in 1950-1955, and the old population is currently growing more slowly than in Albania, with an average annual rate of 1.1% during 2010-2015.

Because fertility rates in the mid - century were high, over five births per woman in Albania, elderly population growth rates would be much higher than in Europe, where fertility in 1950-1955 had already fallen under three women for many countries.

Badly Combined Factors

While declining fertility and increasing longevity are the main drivers of population aging globally, international migration has also contributed to changing population age structures in Albania, the UN report says. But international migration may also slow down the aging process in countries that are experiencing major influxs of immigrant waiting, as migrants tend to be old-fashioned.

In countries with aging populations, receiving migrants may be the fastest solution to maintaining balances in population structures. Refugees reserves from Africa and the Middle East are viewed as a solution. In 2015, the aging population was cited as a major concern for the next 20 years, as many developed countries experience population aging are facilitating procedures for immigrants.

But in the meantime, Albania is experiencing both population aging and growing levels of migration, while there are no policies for maternity stimulus, no braking and going abroad, as it is not about stimulating foreign waiting as immigrants. A map recently published by the UN indicated that in 2015, some 1,12 million Albanians born in Albania live in other countries. Three are top destinations: Italy with 450 thousand Albanians, Greece with 40,000 and the United States with 80 thousand. There are 20 thousand immigrants in Germany and Canada, each and the United Kingdom, 10,000.

According to INSTAT's latest consensus (2011), residences in Albania are around 2.86 million people, which means those who have fled abroad already make up 40% of those who reside in the country. Population growth rates are very low because of the growth of the average age (which has reached about 37 years) and the acceleration of migration, especially in the last year.

Emigration of the qualified labour force has greatly negatively affected the country's economy. An IMF European Department study has found that during the period 1995-2012, immigration has had a negative effect with 18% on the country's GDP. This loss was higher than in other countries in the region, due to migration. The biggest damage, according to the IMF, has been created by the migration of the qualified labour force. The highest losses at GDP, at about 16%, have created the flight from the site of the qualified labour force, in relation to emigrants with low skills.

As with fertility, young people are the main promoters of migration, domestic and international. Removing barriers to migration, social unrest in the 1990s, high unemployment and better job opportunities and research abroad generate a steady influx of migration mostly towards Greece and Italy. The 2011 consensus showed that migration has been the most important factor in net population loss of 269 thousand people, between 2001 and 2011, expressed in percentages as 8.8% of the population in 2001.

During this period it is estimated that 482 thousand Albanians have fled the country. As is common in migration, the age group that became more involved in migration experience is that of adult youths. The total number of young people who have emigrated to the period between the provisions 2001-2011 is estimated at 225 thousand people, and the 20-24 age group and 25-29 has more immigrants than any other age group. But the phenomenon has been powerfully returned for the past two years. However, economic reasons for immigration still prevail between women and men. In the 2011 Census, these are defined as the main reasons for 74% of young people who have fled home to go abroad.

The report on addiction to deterioration

The United Nations reports that aging has been driven by birth loss, increasing life expectancy. This means that the world's population expects to live longer while there will be fewer adult children as potential sources to support our aging. The global addiction report in 2017 was 100 people working age for 74 pensioners.

In Europe in 2017, there were 30 people aged 65, or in 100 working years, and the ratio of old age addiction is projected to grow significantly in the region, reaching 53 in 2050. In addition, North America is expected to see sharp growth in its aging addiction report, the report on old age addiction is expected to grow in Asia and Latin America more than twice 14 to 2017 to reach 34 in 2050. This report will grow slowly in Africa.

In Albania, middle growth scenario I NSTAT stands for 30 elderly adults in 2031. If advanced aging occurs when the proportion of addiction of older people exceeds that of young people, then the start of it in Albania can be expected before 2025. Albania's population, not only will it age, but aging facilities are projected to change in the future. By 2011, aging was prompted by the contraction of generations born to age on the basis of pyramid: The proportion of youth addiction suffered a decline of 53 children for 100 adults in working age in 1989 to 32 children in 2011.

So far, the addiction of the elderly has been limited, though it has doubled from 8 to 16 individuals for 100 adults working years over 2000-2011. Young people's addiction is projected to decline at a similar rate compared to the increase in addiction of older people by 2021 (a decline of up to 25 young people and an increase of up to 23 elderly for 100 working adults, respectively, according to the average growth scenario. In the second decade of projections, the tendency of youth addiction depends on the scenario, with a stabilisation or a slight decline. The increased tendency of the elderly will intensify when generations of babies born during the baby-boom generation begin reaching retirement age in 2020.

Growing Number of Individuals

The United Nations report found that in Albania, according to data referred to by 2009, 13% of older people over 60 lived alone, as reports report that about 60% of seniors live with children, and the rest about 30% live with their spouse. However, reports may have changed greatly in these eight years when more older people live alone. The United Nations finds that people living only in a global scale have increased greatly.

Some data from the Public Health Institute reveal that in Tirana and other areas of the country, more than 2/3 of the elderly are sick or suffer from a chronic illness, while 1/3 of them report that they suffer from more than one disease or health problem. Only 12% of seniors report that there has been no need to use health services over the past five years.

The number of seniors using primary health services is about half, and the trend is toward growth. The elderly also consume almost half of their medical medications, or more than triple, compared to the sick of other ages. Of the 530 thousand seniors registered to the Family Medicine, about 405 thousand use services financed by health insurance schemes. About 160 thousand are regular beneficiaries 1ʹ4 prescriptions per month, which average 252 million dollars a month.

The most frequent chronic diseases reported among the elderly Albanians are cardiovascular diseases by about 60%, diabetes by about 20%, followed by gastroinstintic diseases, chronic lung diseases and rheumatid arthritis. In our country, the predictive of mental health problems such as neurosis and degeneracy has not yet been properly studied. Almost 70% report having had problems with providing medicine recommended by the doctor. The global population over 60 reached 962 million in 2017, twice as many as in 1980, when there were 382 million elderly people worldwide.

The number of seniors is expected to reach 2050 to almost 2.1 billion. Globally, the number of people over 80 is growing even faster than the total number of seniors. Projections show that the number of people over 80 or more worldwide will increase by more than triple between 2017 and 2050, increasing from 137 million to 425 million. Two thirds of the elderly in the world live in developing countries, where their numbers are growing faster than in developed regions. Globally, during 2010-2015, women exceeded men with an average life expectancy of 4.6 years.

Towards the invasion.

According to UN projections, the century in which we live will close with the fatal results of the country's population, according to the new projections of the Population Department in the United Nations Organisation, published on the official page of this international institution. Considering the population's performance only in gross birth rates (fertility rate) according to all scenarios, Albania will have a reduction in its population.

The pessimistic version predicts that in the year 2100, Albania's population will be only 860 thousand. While the normal scenario envisions Albania being populated by only 1 million and 600 thousand people. The optimistic scenario envisioning zero migration and normal performance of fertility rates predicts that the country's population by 2 million and 800 thousand people, out of about 2.9 million currently counted.

The United Nations organisation has revised Albania's population indicators for this year by a year earlier. In 2017, The UN predicted that in 2100, Albania's population will be 1,754,540 people, with a decline of 1.2 million people from the current population (2.9 million) according to the UN portal, while according to revised projections this year, Albania's population in 2100 will be 1.6 million or 100,000 less than last year's projections.

/Monitor. al