Erdogan approaches Putin, has a greeting for Trump

The deepening of divisions between Turkey and the United States is promoting speculation that Turkey is giving further impetus to strengthening ties with Russia.
On Monday, senior Turkish officials met with their Russian and Iranian counterparts in the Russian sea resort of Soci, as part of continued co-operation among countries for resolving civil war in Syria.

“We can follow our path”, the Turkish press wrote, referring to a statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “The United States could lose a loyal and valuable ally”, Erdogan added, in response to United States threats.

Last week, tensions Turkey- The US escalated rapidly when President Donald Trump warned “severe sanctions” if Turkey did not release US pastor Andrew Brunson from custody. He is under house arrest charged with terrorism, the charge Washington has dismissed as unfounded “”. Ankara says the issue belongs to the courts.

Meanwhile, Russia is successfully trying to attract Turkey. “These are the warmest relations we have had in the history of the Turkish republic”, says former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who served in Washington and the Middle East. The two countries have greatly deepened relations and co-operation over civil war in Syria and trade.

Turkey's decision to buy S-400 missiles from Russia is raising concerns among Ankara's Western allies. Washington warned that the missiles threaten to compromise NATO defence systems. Turkey and the US are allies in NATO.

Allied Concerns

Analysts suggest Washington's increasingly harsh approach to Ankara over the issue of pastor Brunson may be partly explained with broader concerns regarding Turkey's loyalty to its Western allies.

Mr. Trump's threat of sanctions may be an opportunity for Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

<x0) “Putin has everything Turkey needs, except money. And Turkey desperately needs foreign funds. But only the West can lend”.

The US congress aware of Turkey's strong dependence on foreign borrowing is threatening measures to limit Turkey's ability to borrow.

Experts also question whether Mr. Putin really has the interest to further deepen relations with Ankara.

“I don't think Moscow wants to get Turkey closer than that”, says former diplomat Selcen. “NATO is weak, to keep Turkey on one foot in the West and one in the East, because it is not in President Putin's interest that Turkey is dependent like Belarus. Let us remember that the Russian economy is smaller than California. Russia cannot bear Turkey's burden. Not even from Syria”.

Turkey and Russia have been historically regional rivals. Turkey has always balanced its relations between the West and East”, says International Relations Professor Huseyin Bagci of the Middle East Technical University in Ankara. “Turkey knows the limits of co-operation with Russia”.

Syria as catalyst

An adviser to President Erdogan, who spoke on condition of anonymity, stressed last month that Ankara remains committed to its Western alliances and that relations with Russia are based on the necessity of resolving civil war in Syria and trade.

Ankara's co-operation with Moscow over Syria faces growing strain. Turkish officials accuse Russia of failing to comply with an agreement to create conflict-free areas, where a ceasefire would protect the Syrian rebels. The areas were created as part of what is known as the “Astana process” under which Iran, Turkey and Russia co-operate to resolve the Syrian war.

Much of Ankara's anger relates to what Syrian regime forces backed by Russian air forces are gradually overcoming areas without conflict. President Erdogan has pledged to protect the last major area in Idlib, on the border with Turkey. Monday's meeting in Soci of Turkish, Iranian and Russian officials is expected to focus on the future of the Idlib enclave.

The Helsinki summit between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump during July could further strain Turkish-Russian ties. A four-hour appointment took place in Helsinki. It was essential! There is already grounds for a final political agreement regarding Syria”, says former Turkish diplomat Selcen.

Vice President Trump, more than President Barack Obama, is willing to hand over Syria President Bashar Assad, once IS is possible,” says Mr. Selcen. According to him, it shows that “Moscow and the US could agree on Syria, leaving out Turkey”. / VoA