Can Erdogan lose his election after 16 years?

A new parliament and president will be elected in Turkey on 24 June. According to polls 45 per cent to 55 per cent of respondents have said they want to give the vote to the current holder of power, Recep Tayip Erdogan. But he can actually get much less votes. Hakan Bayrakçı, who has established the Institute for Public Opinion Research, SONAR, says those in power in Turkey have created an atmosphere of fear, and as a result nearly 10 per cent of voters do not openly show who they want to vote for. In the polls they give the wrong data, therefore says Bayrakçı, the election results are very likely to be different from the values polls have drawn.

Since the constitutional reform Turkey conducted in April 2017 through a referendum, voters have the right to produce two votes. One vote decides who will be the president of the state, another vote which parties enter parliament. For Erdogan, who has not lost any of his 16-year-long elections, these elections must be the hardest of his political career. Since his first victory in the 2002 elections, his Islamist-conservative AKP party has been speaking in Turkey. But even the party itself is ahead of difficult elections for him.

Problems in the country have been toughed

♫zer Sencer the creator of the Institute for Public Opinion Research, Metropol, has been pursuing Erdogan's career for 25 years. So far there has never been a worse election campaign than this present one, he says. Erdogan no longer determines the agenda, and he no longer shows visions of the future. When presented in public, he seems passionate and weak. He never made so many mistakes in his speeches;” says Sencer. He doubts whether Erdogan will retain power or not.

Erdogan has been in power for 16 years and is seen as the most powerful in Turkish politics. His greatest success has been economic momentum. In more than a decade, average income rose from $3,500 to $11,000 a year, and there was a construction boom across the country.

But today the Turkish economy is no longer in good shape. Since the effort to put a stamp in July 2016 and the state of emergency that followed it, Turkish lira lost nearly 30 per cent of the value. No more investments in the country. International markets' trust in the Turkish economy has fallen. Erdogan, who refuses to set percentages for reasons of political beliefs, had to close his eyes last week when the Turkish Central Bank increased the percentages. After Argentina, Venezuela and Iran, Turkey is fourth with the highest percentages.

This is the first time in 16 years when Erdogan is no longer having success. He can no longer direct the economy. Problems in the health and education system have also increased,” says Sencer. As a result, the Turkish people are feeling the economic crisis. So little passion is seen in Erdogan's activities in the election campaign.

The Opposition increasingly motivated

Gülfem Saydan Sanver also believes that Erdogan finds it difficult to deliver messages to his people. It is expert that has defended a doctoral paper with the AKP theme “Suxesets in the election” and received the Pollie Award Award Award Award Award Award Award Award Award Award Award Awards Award Awards from “American Association of Political Consultants”. Sanver thinks that the theatre with one person doing Erdogan in his party has turned into disparity. “in the rally and in the talks you give, it appears alone and no more messages to give”, says Sanver.

Meanwhile, Muharrem Incre, the candidate for president of the opposition CHP party, has recently managed to raise the percentage of more than 30 per cent in polls. Thus has increased the opposition's motivation to win the elections. “Erdogan now tries to serve the fears of conservative voters,” says Sanver. Therefore Erdogan has spoken in campaign speeches against Kurdish party in recent days PKK, north of Iraq. So he stirs fear to the electors, says Spring. Fearing electors are afraid of changing power and will vote on the current president.

End of the strong presidential system?

According to polls Erdogan could, however, win presidential elections in the second round. The so-called “republican coalition”, consisting of the AKP and the MHP, could lose the majority in parliament. Erdogan would then have no basis for power. The strong presidential system in which the opposition sees a dictatorship will come back in a dream for Erdogan.

“If the AKP loses the majority in parliament, then even for Erdogan would come difficult days,” says Sanver. After the state of emergency, Erdogan issued laws and decrees to remain in government. “If the AKP no longer has the majority in parliament, then Erdogan would lose the power it has today, even if it is re-elected as president. He will no longer be effective president and he will have to recognise the power of parliament,” says the expert. /dw/